KARACHI, Nov 29: Sales of fertilizer during the first month of the Rabi season (October 2005) depicted a phenomenal growth of 70 per cent, compared to the same month last year, which the National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC) has attributed to “speculative buying made by investors who indulge in profiting”.

The recent speculative upsurge in demand to speculative buying by dealers was believed to be due to the slow pace of wheat sowing on account of delay in clearance of cotton, paddy and sugarcane fields and reported water shortages.

According to the latest NDFC report, total urea off-take for the 10 months (Jan-Oct 2005) stood at 4.1 million tons. That represented increase of 17 per cent year-on-year from 3.5 million tons. Urea off-take during October 2005 stood at 378,000 tons (including 43,000 tons of imported urea) as compared to 223,000 tons during the same period of last year.

Local production of DAP increased by 12 per cent during October and 13 per cent during Jan-Oct period. DAP sales during October was about the same at 255,000 tons compared to 258,000 tons in the same month last year.

Some analysts attributed the growth in urea sales during the first 10 months period to overall buoyant demand situation in consequence of a host of factors including easier accessibility to credit and higher farmer incomes. NFDC has mentioned that the weather situation remained highly dry during October 2005, which was not favourable for barani farmers.

Going forward, NFDC expected urea availability to remain tight at about 2.76 million tons during Rabi 2005-06 season while demand was estimated to be around 2.72 million tons. Domestic fertilizer prices during the month remained stable so also the prices in international markets.

Imports of urea during the 10-month period stood at 513,000 tons. Analysts said that the demand supply gap of urea was likely to widen further in 2006.