Inheritance of loss
9
AS the New Year begins, I look back and slowly turn the pages of life in an attempt to come to terms with the world that we live in. Never before in the memory of my living history has so much dramatic change taken place in just a few decades. From communication technology to cybersecurity and political radicalisation to economic disruption, society has been on a roller-coaster ride with pandemic lows and climate change threats hovering over the horizon to cast a pall of gloom on a future that looks more uncertain than ever before.
Mankind has faced many challenges in its evolution. It moved from being hunter gatherers to becoming an agrarian society and took a giant leap forward by transforming the development paradigm through the Industrial Revolution. Embracing change and moving forward in science and technology with better access to health and education and taking a rights-based approach were all seen as achievements of humanity and a mark of civilisational progress. The trauma of the world wars paved the way for multilateralism and the end of the Cold War was seen as a moral victory for democracy. The world was set on a steady course with diminishing chances of conflict and a future that afforded opportunity for the ambitious and equity for the less privileged.
The stage is set for a return to the law of the jungle.
However, the reality today looks more precarious than ever before. Geopolitical tensions are creating a wedge between nations as countries grapple to cope with Covid and climate. The world has suddenly become a very dangerous place. As countries compete with each other to control resources and dominate new technologies, new blocs and alliances are emerging, dividing the world into camps. The crisis looming ahead is not about territorial disputes or differences in political ideologies. It is about the future of the planet and the survival of the human race.
When survival is at stake the veneer of civilisation gives way to the instinct of self-preservation. Lofty principles are quickly replaced with narrow interest, and barring a few lone and noble voices the majority is quick to cave in to the baser instincts of human nature. As we move forward, it is not only climate that will change in the next few decades but politics, economies and approaches to governance will also morph to create a new world order. As the global population increases and the resource base shrinks, countries will start looking inward for ways to protect their own human security with less ability and willingness to provide assistance to others. The stage is set for conflict and a return to the law of the jungle.
The increasing effects of climate change will exacerbate existing cross-border tensions and trigger geopolitical flashpoints making states take steps to secure their interest. As temperatures increase and more extreme events take place between now and 2030, the risk of conflict over water and migration will intensify. The escalating physical effects of climate change will be felt more acutely by developing countries, destabilising societies and leading to internal conflicts and a rise in crime and lawlessness. Maintaining peace and stability will emerge as a new challenge both between and within countries. At risk will be democracy itself as its governance approaches may not be able to cope with the magnitude and the multiple dimensions of the sociopolitical impacts of the climate crisis.
As I look at global politics today and anticipate the radical changes in social order, I cannot but think that the appeal for populist governments will increase. The fiery rhetoric of brash and politically incorrect leaders will shape the contours of what may emerge as the new political culture that finds traction with the masses. The role of the military in societies will also increase and authoritarian regimes may offer solutions that provide people with a higher sense of security.
The reliance on fossil fuel is still high and while countries meet at the Conference of Parties to reach agreements on just transitions, the outcome each year is mostly to blame and to attempt to assign responsibility to wield contentious financial and economic tools that protect national interests. The cooperative breakthrough of the Paris Agreement is also at risk.
Just as the Industrial Revolution catapulted the world into an era of growth, the age of climate change will plunge us into an era of chaos. We have crossed the tipping point and lost the opportunity to accelerate pace on decarbonisation. It is time to reset the political agenda.
There is no planet B in sight and no tested technology to sequester enough carbon by 2030. With all our wealth, knowledge and discoveries we may have nothing to leave behind but an inheritance of loss.
The writer is chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.
Published in Dawn, January 8th, 2022
