ISLAMABAD, Jan 24: The government is likely to revise downward the annual tax collection target from Rs429.7 billion for the current financial year, a senior official told Dawn.

The downward revision may be decided following a briefing to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) review mission, scheduled to arrive here on Jan 25 to evaluate the half year performance of the government.

The Fund delegation will be led by country director for Middle East, Paul Chabrier.

Chairman, CBR will give a detailed briefing on January 26 to the visiting IMF review mission on the total tax collection and the impact of the September 11 incident on the country revenue collection, the official said.

The revenue receipts fell by 4.1 per cent in the first half of the current financial year to Rs174.52 billion this year against Rs181.97 billion during the same period last year.

The government has, however, agreed with the Fund to raise the tax to GDP ration from last year 11.3 per cent to 11.5 per cent during the current financial year, which means that CBR has to collect Rs430 billion in the current fiscal.

The official said the CBR may seek around Rs12 billion downward revision on the ground that the same amount was paid to exporters as refund during the last two months.

He, however, admitted that one of the reasons of shortfall was payment of huge amount of refund/rebate to exporters.

The CBR paid Rs37.75 billion refund/rebate to exporters during the July-December period this year against Rs23.4 billion paid to exporters during the same period last year, an increase of 61.32 per cent.

The tax authorities have to collect around Rs255 billion during the January-June period of current financial year, whereas they have collected Rs174.52 billion during the July-December period the current financial year.

Tax analyst said that the prevailing conditions in the region, CBR would hardly collect around Rs408 billion during the current financial year.

They said if the target was revised further from Rs429.7 billion, then it would not be possible to generate the additional amount of Rs140 billion in the next three years as agreed with the Fund under Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF).

The government had earlier revised downward the tax collection target from the budgetary target of Rs457.7 billion to Rs443.7 billion, a decrease of 3.1 per cent or Rs14 billion.

Following the Sept 11 incident, the government further revised the tax collection target from Rs443.7 billion to Rs429.7 billion, down by 3.18 per cent or Rs13.7 billion.