The win of Sadiq Sanjrani, who was backed by the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) for the Senate’s chairmanship, in a closely contested election last Friday will bring some respite for the Imran Khan government. The government, which appeared rather shaky and insecure after the defeat of its finance minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh at the hands of Yousuf Raza Gilani, the candidate of the opposition alliance Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), should give the fragile government the much-needed boost and somewhat reinstate business confidence in it.

The victory of Sadiq Sanjrani also indicates that the prime minister, no matter how weakened he has grown over the last few months in the face of the movement launched by the PDM seeking his resignation and new elections in the country, still retains the backing of the country’s military. This is a signal the PTI government desperately needed even after Prime Minister Imran Khan was pushed to secure a vote of confidence from the National Assembly following the defeat of his finance minister. But it is likely to further increase the military’s role in the PTI administration, which appears to already have conceded much of the decision-making powers in matters related to foreign policy, interior policy and economy.

But does this mean that the ruling party will now be in full control of the parliament and able to tackle the serious economic challenges facing the country, especially the legislation it requires to meet the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the revival of the suspended $6 billion loan deal? Chances are that the opposition alliance trying to dislodge the Kaptaan will try to create difficulties for the government both inside the parliament and outside it.

The best option available to the prime minister is to somehow tone down the rhetoric on corruption and accountability and engage the opposition in meaningful dialogue on all the issues plaguing this country

The PDM has already announced its plan to march on Islamabad on March 26 and organise a sit-in for an indefinite time period. The government had been facing difficulty in legislating on crucial issues such as legislation needed to get out of the so-called grey list of the FATF (Financial Action Task Force). The emergence of the ruling party as the single largest group in the upper house and the victory of the PTI-backed Senate chairman, say analysts, may bring temporary stability to the country recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic-induced contraction.

“Political uncertainty will decrease, only temporarily though. You cannot expect the Senate chairman’s election will make the government more powerful as its reliance on its backers seems to have increased in the recent weeks in the face of the defeat of Hafeez Shaikh in the Senate election. What we have is a ‘lame duck’ in the name of the administration,” an economic analyst said on the condition of anonymity.

Many believe that the economic prior actions suggested by the IMF for the revival of its suspended loan will go through because the country’s military has a “buy-in” in those reforms. “Expecting political stability in Pakistan is naïve,” a businessman says. “The businessmen have grown used to it and factored political instability in their plans. The problem arises only when some groups resort to street violence.”

According to a senior executive of a foreign firm operating in Pakistan, there are other factors like policy inconsistency, tax policy uncertainties, over-regulation of the economy and so on, which are much bigger threats to business and economic growth than political instability.

Second Chance?

Some businessmen this correspondent spoke with argue that the victory of Sanjrani has provided the prime minister with a second chance to get his act together, uplift the economy and ensure that his government delivered on its election promises in the next two years or so before the next elections.

“The unfortunate thing about the present administration is that a party that won the 2018 elections on the promises of tackling the long-standing structural issues affecting governance and economy got bogged down in confrontational politics with the opposition,” a leading businessman said. He said bureaucratic incompetence and the fear of accountability had jammed the decision-making in the country and blocked the efforts to implement reforms.

“If the opposition launches street protests, it will only add to the problems of the government going forward irrespective of the fact new elections are called or not. The best option available to the prime minister is to somehow tone down the rhetoric on corruption and accountability and engage the opposition in meaningful dialogue on all the issues plaguing this country, including economic, political and electoral. The government has already wasted a lot of time. It cannot afford to lose more.”

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, , March 15th, 2021

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