Wheat being a major food crop of Pakistan occupies 38 per cent of the total cultivated area. The five-year (1995-2000) average was 8.3 million hectares with 71.9 per cent in Punjab, 13.5 per cent in Sindh, 10.3 per cent in NWFP and 4.3 per cent in Balochistan.

Out of the total average production of 18.2 million tons, 74.9 per cent was in Punjab, 14.4 per cent in Sindh, 6.5 per cent in NWFP and 4.2 per cent in Balochistan with maximum production of over 21 million tons in the history of the country in 1999-00.

Reasons for this maximum production were the increase in support price from Rs240 to Rs300 per 40kg, favourable climate, longest cold temperature during the growing period and partly due to the shifting of disgruntled sugarcane growers to wheat sowing which ensued increase in wheat area and reduction in sugarcane area by about 12.5 per cent. Similarly most of the cotton growers removed their standing cotton crop and planted wheat in Punjab on account of the marketing slump created by the ginners and textile industry. The country not only saved $400 million on its import but also earned $500 million by exporting the surplus stock.

Prior to this, the country had to import the commodity except in 1964-65 when production increased; in 1982-83 when exports were nominal; and in 1983-84 when exports were 0.219 million ton. Thereafter, the annual wheat imports varied between 1.6 million to 2.4 million ton and reached a maximum import figure of 4.1 million ton in 1997-98 with an import bill of Rs32.25 billion causing a huge burden on the national exchequer. The tragedy is that inspite of having the largest irrigation system in the world our wheat yield is the lowest. For example in 1999 the average yield of wheat in France was 7,224kg ha, China 3,945kg ha, Mexico 3,900kg ha, the US 2,848kg ha. Nearly 70 per cent of the total cultivated area in India is rainfed therefore, its average yield is 2,596kg ha as against 2170kg ha of Pakistan, despite its 80 per cent area being irrigated. The average yield of Indian Punjab was over 4400kg ha as compared to 2,226kg ha of our Punjab in 1999. Even during the year 2000 when maximum production was recorded, the average yield of our Punjab was 2,491kg ha. Reasons for this low production are inefficient production and marketing system, smuggling which causes deficit within the country and corruption at various levels.

Although, the country obtained a record production but its ha yield was still below. There remains a gap between the actual and the achievable yield suggesting a considerable potential of increasing the production through implementation of the required technology and the removal of constrains. The government had fixed the target at 20 million tons for 2000-01 but had to reduce the target to 18.5 million ton due to the delay in sowing, water shortage and dry spell. However the country had exported more than 724,000 tons of wheat by the end of August 2001 and planned to export another 300,000 tons. Nevertheless, as a result of the high production during the last two years ending in 2000-01, the country still has 1.44 million tons of exportable stock after meeting the domestic requirements.

The support price of wheat was raised from Rs240 to Rs300 in November 1999 which encouraged the farmers for increasing the area and the use of fertilizer. As a result a bumper crop was obtained in 1999-00. But due to manipulations of middlemen and government functionaries gunny bags were not supplied to the farmers who had to sell their wheat between Rs240 to Rs280 per 40kg, while the government functionaries were charging Rs300. The cost of inputs like quality seed, fertilizer, weedicides, pesticides again increased on government announcement of new support price.

Wheat growers, like cotton and sugarcane, are at the receiving end. The government should take steps to ensure that wheat growers get the announced support price by removing various constraints. Lack of adequate storage facilities results in inefficient open storage of wheat, adversely affecting the quality and creating export problems. The government should develop modern storage facilities both in public and private sectors for maintaining quality and grade of exportable for competing with the US, Canada, Australia, France, etc.

Whether the provincial wheat production target will be achieved depends upon the weather. For example no rainfall in October, November and first fortnight of December may delay sowing of rainfed wheat resulting in the reduction of its yield/ha. Shortage of irrigation water and high temperatures in November and December during 2001 may reduce the required cold period, thus affecting the yield unless the cold period is extended to March 2002. The Pakistan meteorological office fears that the dry spell may persist up to April 2002. This prolonged drought could adversely affect the current wheat crop unless there is sufficient rain during the critical stages of its remaining growing period.

Nearly 70 per cent of wheat in Punjab is sown late in the cotton and rice belts of the province. The optimum sowing time of wheat in Punjab is from mid-October to the third week of November. Within this period the best planting time is from October 20 to November 15. Sowing of wheat after third week of November results in the reduction of yield by 35kg/ha per day and the late sowing may be done till early January. Late sowing results in reduced tillering, spike length and the number of grains per spike resulting in the reduction of yield/ha.

Soaking of wheat seed for 24 hours in 500ppm aqueous of gibberellic acid solution before seeding not only partially fullfil the low temperature requirement of the late sown wheat, but also results in early seedling emergence, increased root, shoot and coleoptile length of wheat seedlings. All these factors cause significantly higher yield/ha as compared to the normally late sown untreated seed. This technology has a great potential of increasing yield of late sown wheat in the rice and cotton belts of Punjab especially of the rainfed wheat. In rainfed areas seed has to be placed relatively deeper for providing it contact with optimum moisture for germination. The vigorously growing seedlings with greater coleoptile length from gibberellic acid-treated seeds result in better emergence.

Drought conditions during the growing period are not uncommon, especially in rainfed areas. Wheat breeders should pay greater attention towards developing high yielding drought-resistant varieties. Similarly, the wheat physiologists should determine supra-optimal but sub-lethal temperature stress and its duration to wheat seed in a temperature-controlled incubator before planting. This hardens the embryo within the seed and the plants emerging from such stressed seed show greater resistance to drought conditions and give much higher yield as compared to those emerging from normal unstressed seed. A similar study on stressed cotton seed at Faisalabad during an extremely drought year when cotton crop could get only three irrigations as against the normally required six resulted in faster seedling emergence, their establishment and induction of high drought resistance. As a result the crop from the stressed seed gave 25 per cent higher yield over that from unstressed control seed.

Of the total salt affected soils of 6.4 million hectares in the country 72 per cent is saline-sodic and sodic, out of which 3.34 million hectares can be easily reclaimed and made productive by the use of gypsum and following wheat — rice rotation.

The wheat genotype 234/2 is highly salt tolerant and can be used during reclamation period to obtain higher yield. This approach will significantly increase national wheat production on the neglected and unproductive salt-affected soil. If Indian states of Punjab and Haryana, Karnal and Hissar area can completely reclaim their salt-affected soils by adopting the aforementioned approach and significantly increase their wheat and rice production than why can’t we?

According to agricultural statistics, the area with water table 0-5 feet below ground surface in June 1998 was 2.45 million hectares which increased to 4.94 million hectare in October when the growing period of wheat starts. Similarly, the area with water table 0-10 feet below ground surface in June was 8.53 million hectares which rose to 9.12 million hectares in October. When the water table reaches 10 feet below ground surface it moves upward through capillary rise, thus considerably meeting the water requirements of the crop growing on high water table soils. For example normal yields of wheat were obtained without any subsequent irrigation after sowing with 4-acre inch of water on soils with water table depth of 3-8 feet below ground surface, while only one irrigation after sowing was needed to obtain maximum yield as against 5-6 irrigations under normal conditions. This saves not only water but suggests that a large area under high water table soils can be used for growing wheat for increasing production.

Thus the policy makers, scientists, agriculture and irrigation departments should develop a fool-proof programme for sustainable production keeping in view all the aforementioned aspects of production, pricing, marketing, storage and export. Besides, timely availability of credit and inputs at affordable price, especially to small farmers should be ensured.