KARACHI, Jan 19: Hopes for the reconstruction of devastated Afghanistan rekindled as the world community prepares for Tokyo conference on January 21-22 to finalize the quantum and details of external assistance. On Saturday a report that outlined the plans and came up with possible cost numbers on preliminary needs assessment for consideration was distributed amongst the participants of the meeting.

“The reconstruction of Afghanistan is expected to cost about $15 billion over a 10-year period, according to a preliminary needs assessment prepared jointly by the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank,” a press statement issued by the World Bank on Saturday estimated.

The Report figured out that reconstruction would cost about $5 billion in the first two and a half years.

Two days from now, the international donor community is to meet in Tokyo to discuss the report and make their commitments to a new start for war-ravaged Afghanistan. Japan forms the Steering Group for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan along with the European Union, Saudi Arabia and the US.

“The Report stated that part of the estimate of costs for the first 30 months under Afghanistan’s new arrangement will have to cover the country’s recurrent costs as its authorities are unlikely to be able to collect taxes in the foreseeable future. It is estimated that the country will need about $1.8 billion to cover recurrent costs during this period, including the salaries of civil servants who lost their jobs during the Taliban era and who the interim authority plans to rehire. In earlier Afghan governments, about 43 per cent of civil servants were women.

The challenge of Afghanistan’s development ranges from the reconstruction of infrastructure to the delivery of social services and the creation of an environment which allows the private sector to flourish productively.

As regards the cost estimates, the Report made it clear that the projected funding requirements of the Afghanistan reconstruction programme are estimated on a commitment basis. Actual disbursements relative to investments may experience a variable lag depending on the nature of the projects. Recurrent expenditures, however, are not likely to experience such disbursement lags.

The Report identifies the several areas, where the costs would be incurred. These include: infrastructure; social protection, health, education, agriculture, food security, natural resource management.

The Report also talks of governance and economic management issues and security, Justice and Human Rights: “Afghanistan has been the source of 80 per cent of the world’s poppy production,” says the Report. “The ban imposed by the Taliban had been enforced effectively. Now, though, land previously planted with poppy, particularly in the southwest and northeast of the country, is likely to revert to that use,” says the Report, stressing, “This resurgence of drugs poses a serious threat to the political process under way. Effective enforcement of the ban on poppies is essential.”