ISLAMABAD: About 85 per cent of global crop output growth over the next 10 years can be attributed to yield improvements resulting from more intensive input use, investments in production technology and better cultivation practices, said the Agricultural Outlook 2020-29 released on Thursday.
The report — published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organisation — notes further intensification of land use through multiple harvests per year will account for another 10pc, while cropland area expansion is projected to account for only 5pc and will play a much smaller role than over the last decade, improving the sustainability of agriculture.
Over the outlook period, global livestock production is expected to expand by 14pc supported by low feed prices and stable product prices ensuring remunerative profit margins to producers. Poultry remains the fastest growing meat accounting for about half of the projected increase in total meat output.
Assuming the continuation of current policies and technologies, production projections imply a growth in direct GHG emissions of 6pc compared to the current level. Livestock will account for 80pc of this increase. Further reduction in the carbon intensity of agricultural production could be achieved by large-scale adoption of emission reducing technologies.
The report says that global trade in primary agricultural commodities will increase only marginally relative to production, as without any trade-promoting policy changes, international shipments will be largely determined by total market size. Trade is going to be increasingly important for food security in resource-constrained countries, where imports account for a large share of their total calorie and protein consumption.
On the exporter side of the market, trade plays a central role in securing rural livelihoods. A well-functioning, predictable international trading system is essential for both consumers and producers.
An initial Covid-19 scenario provides some preliminary insights into the short-term impacts of the current pandemic on agricultural markets.
The scenario illustrates how the Covid-19 pandemic could create a historically significant market shock. In this scenario, agricultural prices fall strongly in response to the Covid-19 induced decline in disposable income, especially in low-income countries.
Due to this unprecedented loss in purchasing power, consumer food consumption will decrease despite the offsetting price declines. The initial scenario shows a contraction of demand for vegetable oil and animal products, whereas the demand for staple food was less affected.
While the scenario provides an indication of potential short-term impacts of the disruptions caused by the pandemic, the economic, social and political fallout of the pandemic continues to evolve in extremely complex patterns.
Over the coming decade, the relative importance of food, feed and biofuel use will not change significantly, as no major structural shifts in demand for agricultural commodities are expected.
Published in Dawn, July 17th, 2020
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