LAHORE: Citizens of Lahore — and other cities — can wave goodbye to the blue skies in the coming future, as bad air quality is slowly but surely rising. This has especially been the case since lockdown was eased after it was announced on May 7. But even a few days before that, air quality levels had begun to fall as more and more people had been leaving their homes and using their cars.

When lockdown was imposed in mid-March and factories and brick kilns were closed down, and cars and heavy vehicles also almost disappeared off the roads, air quality levels had improved to such an extent, that the air cleared up, and the AQ index showed readings of ‘good’ (0 to 50) to ‘moderate’ (51 to 100) levels. Now, AQI is showing readings of levels that are ‘unhealthy to sensitive groups’ (101 to 150) and unhealthy (151 to 200).

The Air Quality Index is based on measurement of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), Ozone (O3), Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) and Carbon Monoxide (CO) emissions.

Abid Omar, founder of the Pakistan Air Quality Index (PAQI), says during the lockdown, there was a 62 per cent reduction in Lahore’s smog levels, but even then, air pollution was still above safe limits. Since lockdown, average air pollution has remained above safe limits, while according to Punjab’s own environmental quality standard the AQI read 15 micrograms per cubic meter only for one day.

Air pollution reaches hazardous level on weekends

According to data collected by Abid over the lockdown period (March 1 to April 13), the PM2.5 levels in Lahore registered a sharp drop, and went down by 63pc from 85 (same time last year) to 32 because so much of the machinery including vehicles had stopped.

But nitrogen dioxide levels remained alarmingly high dropping only 33pc since last year (from 113 to 76). The safe limit of nitrogen is 40 micrograms per cubic meter.

Nitrogen dioxide is one of the (gaseous) air pollutants which is produced as a result of vehicular traffic and other fossil fuel combustion processes. Nitrogen dioxide in the air contributes to the formation and modification of other air pollutants and also acid rain.

Adnan Latif, a materials scientist, had observed that towards the middle of May, things were not going very well in some parts.

“Things were really calm during the lockdown, but I was really shocked at the different sources of pollution that I saw during a short drive out of city,” he said. “Black smoke could be seen from brick kilns, biomass burning along roads, two-stroke rickshaws, black smoke of unburnt diesel from weak engines - every form of pollution that you can imagine was present in front of me.”

He says he saw how people were burning garbage along the roadside including plastic bottles. “I saw a huge fire of plastic bottles on Sialkot-Daska Road. There was black smoke rising from brick kilns close to our farm. Wheat stubble was burning.”

Dr Imran Khalid, who has a PhD in environmental policy, and he heads the Environment and Climate Change Department at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad, has also had similar observations.

“We are returning to business as usual,” he says. “This entails an ever-increasing amount of traffic due to population, urbanisation and sprawl. That in turn means more pollution.”

Air quality since May 3 to 23, recorded by [air quality] monitors all over Lahore points to a grim situation. The histogram shows air quality shifting from moderate to unhealthy (for sensitive groups) and hazardous. The lowest has been recorded at 73 AQI, while the highest has been a startling 156. It is also observed that most of the air pollution that reaches a hazardous level happens on weekends. And while during the last few days the weather in Lahore has been pleasant and windy, the air quality forecast for upcoming days (June 2 to 7) show that the AQI will be shifting from moderate to unhealthy levels.

Impending doom

Meanwhile, as transport and industry continue to release pollutants in the air, even as lockdown eases, a more threatening situation is unravelling. According to data in a recently released report, titled “Air quality, health and toxics impacts of the proposed coal mining and power cluster in Thar”, it is mentioned that while Pakistan is already suffering air pollution levels that are among the highest in the world, reducing life expectancy in the country by more than 2.5 years and increasing the vulnerability of Pakistanis to the Covid-19 pandemic – the use of coal as an energy resource will be worsening the situation.

More than 95pc of Pakistan’s installed coal-based electricity generation capacity (5,090 MW) was commissioned during the past three years, with more than 6,000 MW still in various stages of development. This is happening at a time when coal-based power plants and plans are being scrapped across the globe due to high climate, air pollution and economic impacts.

The impact will be so high that the air pollutant emissions from coal plants and mines would expose an estimated 100,000 people to exceedances of the WHO guidelines for 24-hour average SO2 concentrations and 3,000 people to exceedances of the guidelines for 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations.

Other health impacts include 40,000 asthma emergency room visits, 19,900 new cases of asthma in children, 32,000 preterm births, 20 million days of work absence (sick leave) and 57,000 years lived with disability related to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes and stroke.

Published in Dawn, June 2nd, 2020