KARACHI, Aug 26: Encouraged by an almost 85 per cent growth in exports in past five years, the planners now confidently project a quantum jump in Pakistan’s export by more than 100 per cent in next five years to touch $30 billion figure by 2010.

Pakistan’s exports swelled from $8.56 billion in 2000 to $14.4 billion in 2004-05. Exports got a major thrust forward after 9/11 when Pakistan joined the US-led international war against terror and got increasing access into the European and US markets for its textile products.

The State Minister and Chairman of Export Promotion Bureau Tariq Ikram, however, does not subscribe to the view that post-9/11 developments contributed entirely towards the surge in Pakistan’s exports. He concedes that the political gains after 9/11 were translated into economic gains for the textile sector only. Textile exports increased from $5.66 billion in 2000 to $8.56 billion in 2004-05.

“But the real turnaround has been made in export of non-textile and non-traditional items,” he stressed. The figures show growth of non-textile export from $2.9 billion in 2000 to $5.9 billion in 2004-05, a phenomenal rise of almost 100 per cent.

Under a strategy, the Bureau has categorised a number of items into a developmental category. With limited resources, the Bureau tries to monitor the production capacities of these developmental category items and help them in sorting out the issues of the exporters with different government agencies.

The Bureau chairman claims credit of withdrawal of sales tax on import of inputs of five categories of export industries in the last budget. “A sustained cash flow is a key to maintain a steady production growth and an uninterrupted compliance of export order,” he said.

Tariq Ikram substantiates his claim of growth in non-textile export with performance of sectors like pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, chemicals, auto parts, meat and a host of other items. The export of chemicals he said increased by 675 per cent, pharma items by 58 per cent, engineering goods by 260 per cent, gems and jewelleries by 75 per cent so on and so forth.

He said only eight pharmaceutical products were registered for export about five years ago. “Now 80 pharmaceutical products are registered for export,” he disclosed stating that both the local and multinational pharmaceutical companies are engaged in export.

“A whole set of new exporters from all parts of the country are in the business,” he said while pointing out that the Export Promotion Bureau is all set to help these exporters in maintaining their growth tempo in the future.

But this highly optimistic export projection is qualified by a few ifs and buts. First and foremost are the highly volatile and unpredictable international oil prices which brought Pakistan’s economy under stress in 04-05 as trade imbalance touched unprecedented $6 billion figure. The international oil prices are still putting immense strain on the national economy. Oil prices are on rise and are now more volatile after the results of Iran’s Presidential elections.

Second factor to determine future trade trends is that Pakistan remains an import-oriented country and is now open to flow of goods from all parts of the world into its market after the World Trade Organization (WTO) has dismantled all the tariff and non-tariff barriers in international trade.

Officials and businessmen are both conscious of the fact that if quality and pricing of goods being made by domestic industry fails to match with those being manufactured abroad particularly in the neighbouring countries the day is not far when Pakistan’s market will be flooded with imported goods.

But what is a matter of consolation is that in last five years, the import of machinery has increased from $1.4 billion a year to $5.8 billion in 04-05.

The State Bank Governor Dr Ishrat Hussain in an interview with this correspondent early this month has said that machinery worth $18 billion had been imported in last four years.

Quite a bulk of this imported machinery was now installed and put in to operation. The EPB Chairman was confident that the goods to be produced from this state of the art machinery would compete in quality and price with those being manufactured abroad and have all the export potential too.

A fast changing international market demands the setting up of exclusive export houses separate from the manufacturing. They will have to set up a supply chain system in the US and Europe. It means that the exporting companies will have to set up infrastructure for import of their products. The giant stores want the delivery of products at their branch store for ready sale.