Deviating from an adversarial approach, the PTI government is now seeking — as per “demands of democracy” — support of mainstream political parties on a possible “minimum common agenda” to resolve the challenging issues facing the political economy.

More encouraging is the fact that the ruling party seems to recognise the limits of powers. It is a prudent course to take.

Seeing cooperation, a federal minister has asked the vocal victimised opposition to “forget the bitterness of the past”. The government cannot be unmindful of the fact that a heavy legislative agenda awaits the approval of parliament. Being in minority in the Senate, the ruling coalition needs parliament’s approval for numerous ordinances like amendments to the Nepra Act and NAB Ordinance, harmonisation of general sales tax on goods and services and the strengthening of the State Bank’s autonomy. All provinces need to be brought on board for carrying out reforms by activating the Council of Common Interests and the National Finance Commission (NFC).

PTI’s changed approach coincides with the surfacing of disturbing latest data. Exports fell 3.96 per cent in December 2019 year-on-year. The increase in the federal tax revenue dropped from 17.5pc in the first quarter to 16.1pc for first half of the year, woefully short of the original budgeted target of 45pc. The latest State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) quarterly report on the state of the economy acknowledges that economic growth in this fiscal year will be short of the official target of 4pc. And a continuing decline in imports shows that the economy is still on the downhill path. The government’s misplaced optimism appears to be approaching the day of reckoning.

Frequent U-turns show that arbitrary decisions don’t work in a complex situation

The PTI’s conciliatory approach opens an opportunity for evolving the much-needed charter of economy by putting the collective national wisdom at work. Economic ills need to be cured by indigenous prescriptions while drawing upon the experience of other countries and seeking foreign assistance with the sole objective of achieving a self-reliant economy. We create crises and expect others to help us resolve them. We do the same thing over and over again and surprisingly expect different results every time.

Although the amendment to the Army Act seems to be the starting point, a consensus on the minimum common agenda for which the ruling party seeks collective action has to be evolved. The march of events since the last general elections has squeezed the space for arbitrary decision-making with the economy still in bad shape and one-sided accountability shattered. And the Supreme Court–driven accountability is subjecting the authorities concerned to the rule of law. Frequent U-turns also show that arbitrary decisions often don’t work in a complex situation.

Though seen by critics as a deviation from democratic norms in the context of our historical legacy, the extension of tenure for the three services’ chiefs has been brought into the constitutional ambit while the issue of the enforcement of the constitutional writ in letter and spirit is in the forefront of the current national political debate.

The amendment, however, strengthens the regressive, deep-rooted organisational culture that individuals count more than institutions as witnessed in the case of the heads of political parties.

Following the constitutional course, civilian governments in the past tackled long outstanding issues. The milestones were: the 7th NFC Award, the 18th Amendment and the agreement on the sharing of irrigation water among the provinces. Fragile representative democracy has sustained itself for over a decade, also owing to a national consensus reinforced by legislative, administrative and fiscal autonomy of the provinces and participatory democratic federalism.

In some ways, the dialogue between the government and mainstream political parties on the common agenda may help curb divisive politics that leads to deviations from the constitutional course.

Supported by the core establishment, Prime Minister Khan was confident that his government would carry out economic reforms without much difficulty, first without the IMF and later with the IMF bailout. However the IMF-inspired programmes superseding the electoral mandate have widened the gulf between the government and the people as well as business. So far, the PTI has not succeeded in cutting red tape to improve the government’s service delivery.

In this background, the Azadi March was followed by a controversy over the way the tenure of the army chief was initially extended. Now the defence minister says, “All parties are on the same page and are standing alongside the armed forces”.

The setbacks suffered by the PTI have brought gains to mainstream political parties. According to some media reports, Shehbaz Sharif may be invited to share power one way or another. The possibility of fresh elections isn’t being ruled out. Earlier, Mr Sharif had stated that an in-house change might be acceptable to his party.

jawaidbokhari2016@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 13th, 2020

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