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WITH 2019 drawing to a close, all political parties, governing and opposition, are claiming 2020 as the year Lady Luck will smile on them and them alone. Let’s examine whose optimism appears more rooted in reality.
Prime Minister Imran Khan has said the new year will see his government consolidating what he perceives as gains already made and the economy will pick up so he would be able to embark on delivering on some manifesto promises such as low-cost housing and new jobs.
Its first 18 months in power have seen the government limping from one crisis to another. The IMF-mandated contraction of the economy and devaluation has put severe pressure on the poorest segments of society which have had to deal with widespread job losses and double-digit inflation.
The macroeconomic scenario the government is painting for the next year is predicated mainly on the shrinking current account deficit. Apart from that, all projections of growth rate suggest it would be no better than it was this year so even here there seems to be an element of wishful thinking.
The one area where the government appeared in no mood to compromise was in its ‘anti-corruption’ campaign. That now seems to be running out of steam as many opposition leaders, after incarceration in NAB, ANF, FIA cases, are now getting bailed out as the prosecution is floundering.
Its first 18 months in power have seen the government limping from one crisis to another.
In addition to hounding the opposition, NAB’s impartiality is now also coming under the microscope. A secretly recorded video of the chairman may have left him compromised. It appeared on the channel of a top PTI supporter. The anti-corruption body so far has not taken any action against key members of the government when it said it would in some cases which are public knowledge.
The government’s latest ordinance curtailing NAB’s powers is ostensibly a gesture to win over support of the business community and the civil service whose role in kick-starting a near-moribund economy is crucial. It isn’t clear if this is the incentive the captains of commerce, industry wanted.
All this does not augur well for the PTI but if the devotion of its supporters on social media is truly indicative of wider support, then the party has still nothing to worry about. Its devotees remain unchanged in their commitment to Imran Khan and support each of his decisions unconditionally.
This may be a big plus but does not in itself ensure better governance and delivery for the masses. For the sake of the people, one hopes the economy starts to pick up. Admittedly, even this may not be enough if the PTI loses support of key institutions it has thus far enjoyed.
Moving on to the opposition, over the past few months, PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari has joined the likes of Maulana Fazlur Rahman of the JUI-F and even some PML-N leaders, in saying that 2020 would be the year of change in government and fresh elections.
As much as one only has the prime minister’s word for a turnaround, the case here is no different. When the JUI-F cadres flooded the capital and talk of fresh elections started, it appeared a tad more credible than now when there is no street pressure at all.
The same optimism about change is being expressed by PML-N leaders with no mention of any compelling reason. Insiders say it is embarrassing for the leadership to publicly admit that they are a party to palace intrigue and backroom deals.
Shahbaz Sharif has always advocated a non-confrontation policy towards the military and tried hard to convince his elder brother, who owns the PML-N vote bank, but to no avail. Ever since his ouster from office, Nawaz Sharif had been totally adamant that he did not wish to cut any deals.
Maryam Nawaz was standing by her father’s stance in shunning any compromise and facing identical, harsh consequences with what was seen as courage and fortitude. But Nawaz Sharif’s critical illness changed all that. The courts bailed him out on health grounds.
Shahbaz Sharif is said to have negotiated the permission for his elder brother to travel abroad for lifesaving treatment. Given the prime minister’s scepticism about Nawaz Sharif’s illness, it is clear he was not party to these negotiations.
And this is why some PML-N hard-liners are unhappy, even if they aren’t saying so in public. Some of them have told me it would be a mistake for the PML-N to cut a deal with the establishment to claw its way back in favour, even power as that would move the party away from its populist moorings.
As one second-tier leader said: ‘Mian Sahib (Nawaz Sharif) commands a place in our hearts because of his principled stance. If we start playing the compromise game we will end up going too far and destroying our hard-earned credibility among the people.’
This is why the new year will pose a huge test for Maryam Nawaz. So far she has kept quiet after her release on bail, and only said that her father’s health is her top priority. This is understandable, given the circumstances of her mother’s tragic death.
But if Nawaz Sharif’s treatment turns out to be long drawn and he can’t return home soon, Maryam Nawaz will be faced with a tough choice. She knows she is the keeper of her father’s political legacy and her long silence, absence from the scene will undermine morale, even support.
How she resolves this conundrum will spell out the course of her political future. Many politicians may want Lady Luck to smile on them in the coming year but some of them will have to be content with merely surviving what is likely to be a make-or-break year.
Now if the army chief were a politician one could say he’d have the toughest new year as his extension hangs in the balance. But that is another matter.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
Published in Dawn, December 29th, 2019
