THE numbers are screaming to be heard by now.

All last fiscal year, the government careened from one policy priority to another like a child in a dodgem car while then finance minister Asad Umar talked one day about an inherited crisis, the next day about industrial revival packages, and the third day about borrowing from friendly countries.

All the while the fiscal deficit grew rapidly, and the data from the latest quarter that has just been released, covering the period April to June 2019 — which completes the full year’s picture — shows that the growth in the government’s expenditures accelerated throughout and revenue growth stagnated.

Not only that, in rupee terms, the FBR actually collected slightly less revenue in FY2019 than in the previous year, despite a raft of regulatory duties, two mini budgets, and a massive devaluation which usually boosts recoveries under custom duties.

But none of that helped, and perhaps for the first time ever, we had slower revenue collection in rupee terms than in the preceding year.

This is nothing short of a blowout.

One might have to travel more than four decades back in time to find another year in which the fiscal deficit — the gap between revenues and expenditures of the federal government — was larger than 8.9pc of GDP, which is where it landed by end of FY2019.

The brunt of the curtailment in expenditures during this year was borne by development spending, which is one big reason why economic growth ground to a near halt as well.

And the major portion of the budget deficit increase came in the fourth quarter.

Where the total deficit came in at Rs3.445 trillion, almost Rs1.5tr of that was accumulated in the last quarter.

This shows the massive pressure that had built up in the economy throughout the year was released in one go towards the end of the fiscal year.

All through the year the government reminded us incessantly of the difficult economic situation it had inherited, often describing it in apocalyptic terms, such as the “worst economic crisis in history”.

But at the end of the fiscal year, the blame for the dismal outturn lies in one place only: with the government in power.

There was a lack of focus on economic priorities throughout, repeated entreaties for more time, repeated reminders that tough choices lie ahead followed by repeated U-turns on whether or not to approach the IMF, and even rhetoric of some sort of revival underway from February onwards.

All that now lies in ruins.

The record setting fiscal deficit is the cost of losing focus on the economy.

It results in higher borrowing, higher debt service costs, and further crowding out of the private sector from the country’s debt markets.

In short, it has cascading consequences that can take years to pay off.

The rhetoric must now end.

Published in Dawn, August 29th, 2019