LAHORE: A well-marked monsoon low pressure is likely to give heavy to extremely heavy rain in the upper catchments of eastern rivers over the next 48 hours, and the Flood Forecasting Division said on Thursday the spell might generate high to medium flood in the rivers in the next 72 hours.

It said the flow of floodwater in the rivers Ravi and Sutlej (flood) depended on water being released by India from reservoirs it had built over the two rivers.

The Indian reservoirs might be near to their maximum conservation levels, it said, indicating the release of water in the two rivers any time. The rain-generating monsoon system is also likely to affect upper catchment areas of the Jhelum river to some extent.

The FFD said the well-marked monsoon low over northwest Jharkhand moved west-northwestwards on Thursday and it lay over north Madhya Pradesh (India). It is likely to move in the same direction during the next 24 hours and then north-northeastwards, affe­cting upper catchments of the rivers Sutlej, Beas, Ravi and Chenab, and to some extent the Jhelum river.

A trough of westerly wave over northeast Afghanistan continued to persist and might interact with the monsoon low pressure. In addition, light to moderate moist currents from the Arabian Sea were penetrating upper parts of the country up to 5,000 feet, the FFD said.

This meteorological situation is likely to give widespread thunderstorm/rain with heavy to very heavy falls at scattered places over upper catchment areas of the rivers Kabul, Indus and Jhelum. Isolated extremely heavy rains are also expected over upper catchments of the rivers Sutlej, Beas, Ravi and Chenab over the next 72 hours.

Medium to high flows are also expected in nullahs of the rivers Ravi and Chenab in the Sialkot region. Low to medium level of flood is also expected in hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan division.

The Met Department has forecast widespread rains/wind-thunderstorm (with isolated heavy falls) in Hazara, Mardan, Peshawar, Rawal­pindi, Gujranwala, Lahore divisions, Islamabad and Kashmir over the next 24 hours.

Scattered rain is also likely in Malakand, Sar­godha, Faisalabad, Sahiwal, Multan, DG Khan, Baha­walpur divisions and Gilgit-Baltistan.

Published in Dawn, August 16th, 2019