THE country’s precarious water situation has become one of its most well-known facts. Per capita water availability has declined from 5,260 cubic metres in 1951 to less than 1,000 cubic metres at present.

A more painful reality to accept is that since Mangla (1967) and Tarbela (1976), the country has failed to build one-dam-a-decade as required under the development plans of the Indus Water Treaty of 1960.

While the share of agriculture in the country’s GDP is declining, the population is growing at an annual rate of 2.4 per cent. Water scarcity has raised food security concerns given Pakistan’s overwhelming economic dependence on agriculture.

Importantly, irrigated agriculture is the backbone of the country’s economy and consumes around 95pc of the nation’s water resources, according to the Ministry of Water Resources.

Changing demand patterns may increase demand for water outside agriculture. Within a few decades, growth in agricultural consumption of water may be limited. This will require reforms and investments that dramatically reduce water losses

“With a rapidly growing population, Pakistan is heading towards a situation of water shortage and by corollary, a threat of food insecurity,” the ministry’s National Water Policy stated.

The main challenge is that water per capita availability is estimated to further drop to about 860 cubic meters by 2025, marking our transition from a “water stressed” to a “water scarce” country. Hence, there is a need for rapid development and management of the country’s water resources forthwith; to ensure food security on a sustainable basis.

It was in this background that the country’s first national water policy was unanimously approved in April 2018. The centre and four provinces agreed to increase the allocation for water sector projects to at least 20pc of the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) next year, from about 9.6pc at present. Subsequently the allocation is to be increased to 30pc by 2025.

The allocations used to be 17.6pc of total PSDP in 2003-04 and dropped to a meagre 3-4pc before it was increased to 9.6pc in recent years. This was with the induction of Diamer-Basha and Mohmand dams in the development portfolio.

Another sustainability challenge is unregulated groundwater extraction across the country. The water resources ministry estimates that more than 1.3 million tube wells operate without any monitoring or regulation, putting unprecedented stress on the water table.

The centre has prepared a pilot project for Islamabad to start formal registration and licensing of groundwater extractors. An annual fee will be charged for higher than licensed quantities consumed. This model would then be replicated in the provinces to ensure sustainable groundwater extraction.

The World Bank (WB) agrees that the National Water Policy provides a sound basis for reform, but provincial water policies need more attention. Furthermore, the underpinning legal framework is incomplete and needs strengthening.

In a WB report “Pakistan: Getting More from Water,” the bank noted irrigation water use could increase to meet growing food demand if efficiency improvements were made. As wealth increases, changes in diet will have significant impact on commodity demands and crop choices.

While the share of agriculture in the country’s GDP is declining, the population is growing at an annual rate of 2.4 per cent

While irrigation dominates water use in the country, the four major crops (rice, wheat, sugar cane and cotton) use 80pc of the water while contributing only 5pc to GDP. Poor water management, conservatively estimated, costs the country 4pc of GDP or around $12 billion per year, the WB noted.

Changing demand patterns may increase demand for water outside agriculture. This means that within a few decades, growth in agricultural consumption of water may be limited. This will require reforms and investments that dramatically reduce water losses.

It is argued that to ensure continued food security and contribution to accelerated economic growth, the productivity of water in agriculture must be greatly increased. Reforming distorted agricultural policies that support wheat and sugar cane will help move water toward high value crops.

Changes in diet — already apparent as incomes rise — will further change patterns of food consumption. If production of low-value cereals declines in response to falling demand, more water may shift to growing cotton for export.

Cotton, and the associated textile industry, generate considerable export income for Pakistan and should remain economically attractive over the long term, especially if greater value addition post-harvest is achieved. These benefits can only accrue, however, if major reductions in water losses can be achieved.

Assuming optimistic rates of economic growth, modelling suggests Pakistan can reach upper-middle income status (GDP of $6,000 per capita) by 2047, ensure adequate food supply, improve environmental sustainability, and deliver better municipal and industrial water security; even in the context of a rapidly warming climate. However, this will not be easy and will require action on many fronts.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 22nd, 2019