WASHINGTON: The United States is more likely to be attacked in the coming decade by terrorists with chemical, biological or nuclear weapons than by a hostile nation firing intercontinental missiles, US intelligence agencies have concluded.

The annual assessment of the ballistic missile threat highlights what Sept 11 made abundantly clear: that “ships, trucks, aeroplanes and other means” might be used to deliver — or to become — weapons of devastating power.

An unclassified summary of the National Intelligence Estimate declares for the first time that the United States is “more likely to be attacked with (weapons of mass destruction) using non-missile means” than conventional weapons system.

Such weapons, the report notes, are “less expensive, more reliable and accurate, more effective for disseminating biological warfare agents ... and would avoid missile defences.”

Overall, the assessment appears more cautious about the development and spread of ballistic missile systems around the world than the last threat report, which was issued in September 1999.

That report suggested hostile countries were racing to build new ballistic missile systems and that the United States was vulnerable to missile attack with little or no warning. It became a key part of the debate that led to the Bush administration’s decision to push forward with a national missile defence system.

“I think this is a step away from the hyperbole of the previous assessments,” said Joseph Cirincione, an expert on missile proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. “It’s a more balanced appreciation of the threat.”

A US intelligence official said the difference was more in tone than substance. “There are no major changes” since the 1999 report, the official said. “The threat remains and is growing.”

The report, which is the current assessment by the CIA and 12 other intelligence agencies, says the threat is changing, however.

US intelligence experts do not foresee a “large increase” in the number of nations seeking or obtaining sophisticated missiles. Rather, they expect countries with existing missile programmes to try to improve their range, reliability and accuracy.

Overall, before 2015, the United States is most likely to face a ballistic missile threat from North Korea, Iran and “possibly” Iraq, as well from existing stockpiles in China and Russia, the report concludes.

In a rare sign of dissent, however, the report notes that one intelligence agency disagreed on the threat from Iran, judging Tehran unlikely to field an intercontinental ballistic missile before 2015. An official familiar with the report said the State Department’s intelligence bureau had filed the dissent.

In 1999, the assessment warned that China could have “tens” of missiles able to hit US shores by 2015. The current report states that China’s expected nuclear strike force will number “around 75 to 100.”

China currently has about 20 such missiles, the same as before. Russia and the United States each have more than 4,000.

North Korea again drew intense scrutiny. Pyongyang has extended a voluntary moratorium on flight-testing new missiles until 2003, but the Communist regime “may be ready” to test a multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2 missile capable of reaching US shores with a nuclear weapon-sized payload, the report states.

The report also notes that US intelligence concluded in the mid-1990s that North Korea had produced one or two nuclear weapons. —Dawn/The Los Angeles Times News Service.