With a huge growth potential for crop diversification, Pakistan’s agriculture sector is in need of modernisation.

It’s not just about machinery or equipment. The sector can make great strides if the authorities adopt a scientific and modern approach under a strong regulatory framework.

Structural issues, ad hoc-ism, insufficient policy thrust, weak writ of government and increasingly unreliable water flows are major challenges. At least a dozen important research bodies remain without regular heads.

The sector recorded 3.81 per cent growth in 2017-18, 3.5pc in 2016-17 and minus-0.19pc in 2015-16.

The government has planned an investment of Rs200 billion for the next two to three years. The Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFSR) has unveiled an Rs82bn package aimed at increasing yields and improving water efficiency.

In major crops, Sindh was unable to meet the wheat sowing target for 2018-19. Punjab met its target, but Sindh could achieve only 73pc of it by the middle of December owing to a water shortage of 35-40pc in the Rabi season.

Sindh had to face a 50-70pc water shortage in Kharif, which affected cotton and rice. Cotton acreage showed a decline in 2018-19 in Punjab and Sindh. Against the national sowing target of 2.95 million hectares, farmers could use only 2.4m ha, indicating a drop of 10.9pc from a year ago and missing the target by 18.6pc.

Sindh reported a loss of 31pc in acreage over last year while the decrease was 5.2pc in Punjab as Pakistan struggles to meet the target of 14m bales.

The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) said the total cotton production was 9.9m bales by Dec 15. It reported this amidst a controversy about the weight of a bale that the PCGA says is 140 kilograms while the worldwide standard, including in Pakistan, is 170kg.

Nationally, rice production remained 2.7pc over and above the target of 6.931m tonnes. Again, Sindh recorded a 10.8pc decline in terms of area and production while the production in Punjab was 15.7pc higher than the target, provisional figures show.

Sugar cane farmers continue to face a perennial conflict with millers. Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa recorded a decline of 16.1pc and 1.4pc, respectively, in 2018. Acreage in Sindh dropped 16.1pc, but the production in Punjab was 47.1m tonnes against the target of 44m tonnes.

Pakistan Agriculture Research Council (PARC) Chairman Dr Yusuf Zafar believes the government needs fiscal space to effectively manage agriculture through the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP). It should re-appropriate funds from unproductive uses, he adds.

“The government plans to promote cadge fishing in water bodies to increase fish exports to $1bn from $40m,” Mr Zafar says.

There is a serious concern about Pakistan’s food import bill ($6.13bn in 2016-17). A major chunk of it is edible oil ($2bn). Cultivating oilseed crops and sesame can be helpful for import substitution. Sesames exports, as per one estimate, may fetch $45m from the Middle East. Sunflower farming is another option. But its area in Sindh has slumped to 60,000-80,000ha from 266,000ha in 2010-11.

The government seems to be giving great importance to the livestock sector. A scheme to promote backyard poultry to end poverty will take place nationwide. “Meetings have been held with the heads of all provincial livestock departments,” says an office of the Punjab livestock department.

Policy interventions like foot and mouth disease control through vaccination and calf fattening schemes have yielded good results in Punjab with the annual allocation of Rs6bn. “We have reduced the foot and mouth disease to 5pc from 35pc in 2013-14,” he says, adding that other provinces should follow suit.

Water is arguably the most important factor for any growth in agriculture and livestock sectors. The government would initiate the second phase of the lining of watercourses at a cost of Rs68bn. Besides lining, the command area of small dams will be developed in rain-fed areas, which may save nine million acre feet (MAF). The first phase of lining under the National Programme for Improvement of Watercourses (NPIW) was executed in the Musharraf regime on a cost-sharing basis. Sindh has built recharge/storage dams in Jamshoro, Karachi, Nagarparkar and Dadu.

Surface water availability is a must for food security. Researchers believe the introduction of crop zoning can help overcome water shortages. Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCWR) former chairman Dr Mohammad Ashraf says cultivation of high-delta crops — sugarcane and rice — must stop in water-deficient areas. “Aren’t foreign exchange earnings by means of rice exports useless if food imports cost billions of dollars every year?” Rice exports mean Pakistan is actually exporting water used in rice cultivation, he adds.

Crop patterns must be defined and strictly adhered to in order to save surface water through crop zoning. “We grow sugar cane in South Punjab where people don’t have access to drinking water. Similarly, the cotton-growing area of Ghotki in Sindh has witnessed unprecedented growth of sugar cane,” he says.

Groundwater mining continues at an alarming rate. Dr Ashraf says he is concerned about the matter: it increases the farmer’s cost of inputs and harms soil productivity as the groundwater level drops alarmingly. Water mining needs a regulatory framework without any delay. Researchers believe groundwater aquifer is developed in millions of years. It is depleting fast and, according to one estimate, around 53MAF water was being pumped every year. The aquifer level in Quetta has dropped to 1,200-1,400 feet from 100 feet, according to Dr Ashraf.

Punjab government pitched in an Rs8bn subsidy in agriculture, with a Rs2.18bn allocation for 500,000 bags of DAP fertiliser, crop insurance for small farmers, Rs5,000 per acre for oilseed crop cultivation on 156,000 acres, and the provision of 100,000 bags of certified cottonseeds.

Sindh offers nothing of the sort as it seems comfortable with the two ongoing World Bank–funded programmes.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December 31st, 2018