SOCIAL indicators have gained significance as critical variables, used to measure sociopolitical strength and the well-being of societies and communities. While academic and research efforts, mainly in developed nations, are increasingly employing various social indicators to understand trends and challenges, the use of such variables is also growing amongst the global corporate sector and investors.

For instance, socioeconomic equality and harmony — including in terms of religious, sectarian and ethno-political dimensions — can be extremely helpful indicators in predicting long-term political stability, internal security and economic growth potential. However, governments in developing countries pay less attention to social cohesion issues and appear largely focused on economic, defence and external affairs.

Pakistan is amongst the nations that have the least social cohesion or the highest social discord, largely religion-based. The Fund for Peace develops a global index on the fragility of states by using 12 different indicators, which also include social indicators to measure the internal strengths of nations. In the fragile states index, Pakistan’s ranking has improved during the last few years and its ranking has gone from 13th to 20th in 2018. However, its social indicators are still poor as ‘group grievances’ are increasing in society. This indicator analyses the attitude of state authorities and dominant groups towards the specific religious, ethnic or cultural groups for persecution or repression.

Apart from looking deep into the factors of group oppression, religious intolerance, history, justice systems and the freedom of religion, the social indicator also sees if a truth and reconciliation process exists in post-conflict responses, as well as mechanisms for reintegration, reconstruction and compensation for the victims. The cross-cultural or religion aspect is another critical factor that is considered important in assessing the socioeconomic potential of nations.

However, economic, political and social factors paradoxically impact on the internal cohesion of countries and shape the states’ external relations. Though the external factors can affect the economy and political stability, strong internal coherence can withstand external influences.

The government will have to chalk out a clear plan to deal with the issues of extremism and hate speech.

Apparently, the new Pakistan government lacks the vision to improve the social indicators of the country. For that purpose, it will have to chalk out a clear plan to deal with the issues of extremism and hate speech, and the narratives of hate espoused and promoted by certain individuals and groups. A recent report on the freedom of faith in Pakistan finds that faith-based persecution originating from religious extremism in the country is a pervasive phenomenon, which is not restricted to any one class or group, and countering it requires a holistic approach, treating religious freedom as a cross-concept. Those who suffer persecution include Shias, especially from the Hazara ethnic group. They also include Christians, Hindus and Ahmadis. The way the incumbent government dealt with the appointment of the economist Atif Mian — surrendering to pressure from religious circles — indicated that countering hate narratives does not appear on its priority list.

Religious minorities face systemic persecution, while sectarian communities confront direct security threats. Ironically the prevention mechanism against such atrocities, activated in post-conflict contexts, has weakened over time. Weak, incoherent and biased post-conflict responses can aggravate the situation or trigger a new conflict. The emergence of the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement can be seen in this context.

The fragile state index uses factionalised indicators to measures power struggles, political competition, and political transitions, apart from considering the following questions as key determinants: is the leadership fairly elected? Are there factionalised elites, tribal elites and/ or fringe groups? How powerful are they? Is there a political reconciliation process? And, is the military representative of the population?

The same indicator deals with the identity question and the following questions determine the fragility of the states: are there strong feelings of nationalism? Or are there calls for separatism? Does hate radio and media exist? Is religious, ethnic or other stereotyping prevalent and is there scapegoating? Does anyone or a group control the majority of resources? Are resources fairly distributed?

One can see that all these questions carry enough weight in Pakistan’s context. All these issues are directly linked with state legitimacy, public services, governance, rule of law and human rights. However, one indicator that the index of the fragile states does not categorise separately is the freedom of expression. The question, which the index has mentioned, needs to be raised frequently as a democratic right and for sensitising public opinion. Self-censorship is an indication of increasing pressure on the media and freedom of expression. The curbs on expression will not obviate legitimate questions or resolve the problems.

Weak social indicators ultimately affect economic growth through different ways and outcomes such as by damaging the image of societies, linking trade and economy with political and strategic ambitions, curbing innovative approaches and supporting controlled environment on campuses, triggering extremist violence of various forms any time, and forcing a lack of skilled man-force because of rapid brain drain.

Such an environment does not shatter the confidence of local investors alone but also limits the options for the foreign investors as they do not set up their businesses and long-term investments near religious, ethnic and political fault lines.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has injected some optimism for economic growth as infrastructure-building projects can attract foreign investment not only from China but also from other countries. But these countries still have many reservations — ranging from political instability to insecurity — that are largely linked to weak social indicators in the country.

Let us not dream too big, and just imagine a Pakistan that is free of militant and violent groups, where small religious communities feel secure and part of the mainstream. What kind of message will it send to the world — including investors? Improving only a few social indicators can make a huge difference. It is worth investing in building an image to attract resources and investment in the country.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, October 7th, 2018