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Turkish GDP growth slows in 2nd quarter

September 11, 2018

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ANKARA: Turkey’s economic growth slowed to 0.9 per cent in the second quarter, official statistics showed on Monday, with further declines expected as the impact of the tumble in the value of the lira begins to show up in the data.

The second quarter performance was down considerably from the 1.5pc seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth registered in the first three months of the year.

Compared to the second quarter of 2017, the Turkish economy grew by 5.2pc in the three months through June this year, slightly lower than the market consensus of 5.3pc.

Second quarter growth was driven by the services, industry and construction sectors, as well as a rise in exports, the official data published by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TUIK) showed.

The data does not yet include the 20pc plunge the value of the Turkish lira in the past month, with the currency briefly passing seven to the dollar.

The lira traded at 6.4 against the dollar on Monday after 1130GMT, a loss of over one percent in value on the day.

ABN Amro economists last week said lira’s weakness was “not over yet as capital outflows will continue”, warning the lira could reach 8.2 against the dollar.

They also forecast that Turkey could face a recession in 2019.

Meanwhile, Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at London-based Capital Economics, said Monday that “more timely figures point to a steep recession at the start” of the third quarter.

Published in Dawn, September 11th, 2018