ISLAMABAD: Pakistan needs an annual GDP growth of 6-10 per cent to meet demands of its rapidly growing and urbanising population, while absorbing the millions of youths joining the workforce, according to the United Nations.

“This kind of growth can only be achieved if its population is healthy, well-nourished, skilled and well-educated, free to innovate and realise its full potential,” says the ‘UN Sustainable Development Framework’ for Pakistan covering the 2018-22 period.

The five-year partnership framework sets out the direction of UN support to the new government in Pakistan led by Prime Minister Imran Khan to achieve 17 goals of the 2030 ‘Agenda for Sustainable Development’.

Working hand in hand with partners across the country – federal, provincial and local governments, donors, development partners, private sector and the civil society – the implementation of the new programme will witness renewed UN efforts to support legislative reforms and policies; to strengthen national and sub-national capacities; to provide high quality policy advice and technical assistance; to overcome bottlenecks and barriers, in order to ensure that the gains of development reach the poorest.

These key populations, especially those who suffer from multi-dimensional poverty, will be at the forefront of UN efforts in partnership with the government – making sure their needs guide all programmes and policies so their burdens are alleviated and dignity maintained. “The principle of ‘leaving no one behind’ will be the cornerstone of our work,” the UN document says.

Quoting the results of the 2017 census that puts Pakistan’s current population at 207.8 million, projected to rise to 307 million in 2050, the UN report stresses the need for action in the backdrop of climate change that will gain pace, with the likelihood of more frequent and increasing severity natural disasters – a serious concern for a country already highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

According to the UN, Pakistan is an outlier among the Asian states in terms of its demographic transition, caused by the slow onset of fertility decline. This delay has resulted in a high population growth rate, a higher rate of its ‘school-age’ population and a less favourable age structure of of working age population. Rapid urbanisation adds to these complexities, making sustainable urban management and service delivery front line issues.

“If we do not act now, these trends will place untold stress on Pakistan’s economy, society, environment and the provision of basic services – from health care to energy and water,” the UN says.

The country needs innovative, sustainable solutions to meet these aims and overcome its challenges. Simply put, it needs to achieve progress on the Sustainable Development Goals. For the SDGs to be met, the UN is working in close collaboration with the government to integrate those goals into national and provincial plans, ensuring they are localised to fit the Pakistani context. Harnessing the power of ‘Delivering as One’, the UN will support the country by adapting lessons from the successes of other states in similar situations.

Due to its geo-strategic location, Pakistan is susceptible to external challenges shared with other countries, including the possibility of economic fluctuations, regional tensions and uncertainties regarding future levels of international cooperation and foreign investment. Current regional investment initiatives like the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) agreement – encompassing a 3,218 km route – offer momentous opportunities for economic growth and for bridging the country’s energy shortfall.

Concerns also exist in terms of the use of natural and human resources; levels of investment in education, healthcare, nutrition, water and renewable energy; and socio-economic inequalities, which take a pronounced toll on the poorest.

In the context of rapid urbanisation, bottlenecks tend to arise at the municipal level which makes it all the more necessary to strengthen local body capacities, in order to improve service delivery and cement the sustainable management of cities.

The document says certain institutional issues may affect the implementation of the new programme. Foremost is the funding for UN agency programmes and activities in the country. Sustained financing will be essential to achieve the outcomes of the new programme. However, the funding landscape for UN interventions is poised to shift. Although this may provide opportunities for government-led development, it is worth noting that a number of donors are reducing their support for Pakistan, or may do so over the coming years.

In part, this is tied to Pakistan’s newfound ‘Middle Income Country’ status, which makes it less of a priority for the donors that support the UN’s work. It is also linked to the country’s decreasing need for humanitarian aid, which formed a significant proportion of UN assistance during the previous programme period.

As Pakistan’s policymakers become increasingly capable of planning for and managing challenges, the need for international humanitarian assistance has declined. Consequently, it will be especially necessary to mobilise domestic resources to achieve development aims and cope with small- or medium-scale disasters. Nevertheless, humanitarian assistance may still be required in the event of a major natural disaster, the UN adds.

Published in Dawn, August 22nd, 2018