WITH an annual increase of 60pc, the imports of pulses had risen past $950 million during the last fiscal year, and at the beginning of this fiscal it was feared that the import bill would cross the billion-dollar mark.

However, for now the imports look set to consume $550m at most, resulting in a much-needed saving of about half a billion dollars, importers say.

In ten months of the fiscal year 2017-18, a forex-tight Pakistan spent about $443m on the imports of pulses, down 47pc from $835m a year ago, according to the latest Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data. Volumes of imports also declined by 46pc to about 577m tonnes from around 1.073m tonnes.

“We‘re expecting full year import bill somewhere in the range of $530m to $550m,” says a senior member of the Pakistan Pulses and Importers Association. He attributes this to some improvement in local supplies, a moderate build-up in demand and no unusual uptrend in global prices.

Pakistan relies heavily on imports of pulses as local production remains erratic due to massive fluctuations in the output of the gram (chickpeas) crop. A major shortfall in local supplies of pulses, an unusual rise in international prices, or a combination of both factors pushes up the import bill accordingly.

During the last fiscal, the pulses’ import bill reached $952m, or 15.5pc of the country’s total food imports of $6.139bn

When this happens during the times of a forex crunch, as witnessed in the last fiscal year, alarm bells start ringing in the policymaking corridor and markets panic. During the last fiscal, the pulses’ import bill reached $952m, or 15.5pc of the country’s total food imports of $6.139bn, and the government took some measures to boost output.

“Those measures unveiled under the policy slogan of Grow More Pulses have started yielding results,” says an official of the agriculture department of Punjab.

“Much depends on output of gram that accounts for roughly 70-75pc of total pulses’ production. Luckily during this year, gram production has improved. Besides, output of all other pulses except Moong is also estimated to have been a bit higher than before.”

According to officials of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, the actual output of gram during this year reached around 358m tonnes against provisional estimates of 340m tonnes.

They claim that the output of other major pulses, ie Moong, Mash and Masoor, also went up after the launch of the Grow More Pulses initiative.

Traders in Jodia Bazar, the largest commodity market in the country, say that during the ongoing Ramazan wholesalers are not purchasing pulses in as large amounts as they did the last year. This, too, is a factor behind lower imports.

However, it is difficult to check the veracity of these claims as the imports’ data for May is yet to be released. Normally, a month before Ramazan imports of food items pick up.

But often imports shoot up even during the month, especially if they come from China and India via land routes. Importers say this year imports from India have remained moderate as cross-border trade remained mostly suspended due to security issues.

They add that imports of yellow dun peas continue from China, Australia, Canada, the US, and other countries. As shipments of white chick peas and lentils (Masoor) booked for May and June are continuing, therefore some traders say it is premature to speculate about the pace of imports during the final two months of the fiscal year.

Going forward, a sustained growth in the output of pulses is important to keep the import bill in check.

A sustainable yearly increase in production requires policy focus on areas such as: research on high-yield seeds, collaboration with countries with high per-hectare yields, encouraging farmers to grow Mash, Moong, Masoor and other lesser-known pulses crops, modernisation, enhancing the storage capacity of growers, and the development of district-level agricultural markets.

Pulses are spoiled if stored under high temperatures and humid conditions, and damaged by pests if stored for long in closed containers. If provincial governments can help growers with proper storage, it can boost the total availability of pulses by at least 20pc, growers say.

Similarly, promoting the cultivation of pulses on the fringes of main crops under a well-coordinated plan can also boost the local production of pulses and save precious foreign exchange spent on imports.

“Besides, there must be a more dependable price discovery system for growers of pulses and for growers of all minor crops for that matter,” advises a former additional secretary of the Sindh agriculture department.

“Provincial agricultural departments in collaboration with commodities can set indicative prices of pulses at least twice a year, at the beginning of Rabi and Kharif crops.”

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, June 11th, 2018

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