DIALOGUE is necessary and urgently needed, but how likely is dialogue in the current atmosphere? A recently launched book co-authored by former DG ISI retired Lt Gen Asad Durrani and former RAW chief A.S. Dulat has once again turned regional attention towards the need for bilateral dialogue at a time when Pak-India ties are all but frozen. Tellingly, while Mr Durrani and Mr Dulat advocate greater engagement, the conversations with writer Aditya Sinha that form the basis of the book took place in Istanbul, Bangkok and Kathmandu. The former intelligence chiefs do not appear to have been able to meet in their home countries and Mr Durrani was unable to travel to India for the book launch. While both countries have contributed to the impasse over the decades, it is undeniable that in recent years a hawkish approach towards Pakistan by the BJP-led government under Narendra Modi, and a harsh security crackdown in India-held Kashmir, has massively undermined even the possibility of talks.

A ceasefire declared in IHK by the Indian government at the start of Ramazan was tacit recognition that repressive security tactics in the region had caused a backlash among the people that has threatened to grow into a genuine mass, populist uprising against the Indian state. Even that small gesture by the Modi government was almost immediately undercut by violence across the Working Boundary and Line of Control. More generally, the Modi government has been willing to use all manner of tactics to disrupt the minimum amount of people-to-people contact and diplomatic engagement that has existed in previous stretches of a deep freeze in ties. Denying Indian visas to Pakistani religious and cultural delegations has been a particularly churlish move by the Indian government, while the recent harassment of Pakistani diplomats in New Delhi was a dismal violation of diplomatic norms. Meanwhile, there is no indication that backchannel contacts at the NSA level caused India to consider a high-level meeting with Pakistan. The end of the parliamentary term in Pakistan and the upcoming general election will likely give India a further excuse to delay re-engagement.

The fierce and counterproductive Indian stance can be contrasted with more positive signals emanating from Pakistan, including from the security establishment. Pakistan’s military leadership has been reported to be willing to engage India in dialogue and Mr Dulat has suggested that India invite army chief Gen Bajwa for talks, presumably for military-to-military dialogue. Yet, it will be difficult for an army chief to directly and publicly engage with India as long as repression in IHK continues and India does not offer the possibility of agreement on so-called low-hanging fruit. These are areas in which dispute resolution can be carried out relatively quickly in the presence of the required political will. Dialogue may be difficult to envisage currently, but leadership demands that it be considered on both sides.

Published in Dawn, May 24th, 2018