ISLAMABAD: The government has decided in principle to announce final results of the sixth population census without a third-party audit before it transfers power to the caretaker government next week.

A senior government official told Dawn that a final approval to announce the results of the 6th National Housing and Population Census conducted in March-May 2017 was planned at the upcoming and last meeting of the Council of Common Interests (CCI) sometimes this week.

He said the CCI meeting was earlier scheduled for May 14 but was cancelled at the last moment to create space for an emergency meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) called to discuss former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s remarks about the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

The official said the total population count provisionally announced on Aug 25 last year at 207.77 million and a growth rate of 2.4 per cent did not change much in the final results. The total difference between provisional and final results was not more than 60,000 persons, he added.

Final figures without third-party audit to be announced this week

However, two key outcomes of the final results stand out and could play a critical role in future political discourse. For example, the Sindhi-speaking population in urban areas of Sindh has reportedly increased substantially compared to the previous census and the growth rate is significantly higher than other ethnic groups and all others put together speaking languages other than Sindhi.

Even greater demographic change is reportedly evident in Balochistan having far-reaching implications where the gap between Pakhtun and Baloch populations has dropped to less than one per cent, showing growth in Pakhtun population over the past 20 years.

The final results also include population count on the basis of mother tongue, religion, regional growth, provincial, district and local council demographics along with all the final numbers and percentage growth.

The official said the statistics division’s governing body had recommended conclusively to the prime minister that the 5pc post-enumeration third-party validation was no more viable because a long time had passed after the original exercise began on March 15 and concluded on May 25, 2017.

As per international standards, post-enumeration surveys and validation could be conducted within two months, preferably within first 30 days. In large and diverse nations like Pakistan, a lot of migrations take place from one region to another and from one province to another owing to changing cropping requirements, weather conditions and change in livelihood conditions from rural to urban and vice versa.

Therefore, the prime minister was advised that since a year had lapsed, the final census results should be made public and data centres opened to researchers, experts and stakeholders for related data mining. Though the prime minister was disappointed by the delays but convinced with the statistics division’s arguments, he said he could not take a unilateral decision and asked for placing the matter before the CCI.

The prime minister was also informed that the process and terms of reference for a third-party audit through post-enumeration survey could not be finalised and the outcomes could not be expected in any case before the next general election due in a couple of months.

With the approval of the CCI, the government had announced the provisional results of the sixth census that put the country’s population at 207.77 million with an annual growth rate of 2.4pc. These showed a 57pc increase in the country’s population since the last census held in 1998, with Islamabad Capital Territory witnessing the highest population growth rate of 4.91pc. Among the provinces, the highest growth rate of 3.37pc was seen in Balochistan, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 2.89pc, Sindh 2.41pc and Punjab 2.13pc.

The country’s total population stood at 132.35m in 1998.

The CCI had at its meeting on Nov 24 decided that the sampling proportion for carrying out a third-party validation exercise would be enhanced from 1pc to 5pc (housing blocks) to satisfy provincial objections and the exercise would be initiated forthwith.

The process, however, lingered on due to political and bureaucratic compulsions and the audit has yet to take place.

Published in Dawn, May 21st, 2018