The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Lahore.
The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Lahore.

THE emergence of the Junoobi Suba Mahaz has supposedly ignited the fire that is to engulf the core of the PML-N and burn the party to ashes. The predictions are solidly based in history even if the idea of a new province carved out of Punjab is at a nascent stage. The pattern has been replayed time and again across regions in the country. It is being repeated again.

In recent memory, Farooq Leghari, an old neighbour of the Suba Mahaz grand statesman Balakh Sher Mazari, was employed to do the same job. He tried to stitch together electable material under the banner of a party — the Millat Party in the late 1990s — and then he brought the ‘likeminded’ politicians together in the National Alliance which spread as far across southern Punjab and areas in Sindh.

Maybe, an alliance better serves the purpose here. A party, however farmaishy or made-to-order it may be, would still be bound by some kind of discipline, as opposed to the statement made by an alliance or a front or a mahaz as put together by Khusrau Bakhtiyar in the current instance. The individuals gathered under this umbrella may have their own agendas to pursue. Politicians and aspirants of any hue are invited to join the alliance so long as they can work for and benefit from its unspoken but by and large known agenda.

The Junoobi Suba Mahaz takes the focus off PTI as the alternative to PML-N and PPP in Punjab and even beyond.

The new suba or province is still a far cry in most parts of southern Punjab, except maybe in areas where the non-Seraiki ‘settlers’ are in a comparatively small minority as opposed to other parts of the stretch. This agenda in the current sense is restricting the PML-N and others and achieving a bargaining position with the power brokers, regardless of whether an election is held or not.

This is an aspect worth keeping in mind for the sake of thoroughness. Even if these as yet wild rumours about a delay in polls come true, the alliance seeks to raise the profile of its members as men who want a change in the system and are to be placated — obviously with a share in power.

It would be more worthwhile for now to concentrate on the more likely aspects, such as an election, which so many believe are inescapable given the current realities. The buzz in southern Punjab, according to conversations with a set of newspaper correspondents based there, is that a large number of individual politicians are increasingly realising the advantages of contesting the next polls as independents. This is true for some old PPP hands who feel that the party tag may be more of a liability than a badge of distinction at this moment.

But apart from those who have fought elections over the years as party members, there are individuals belonging to areas in southern Punjab, and elsewhere in the country, that have been relatively untouched by party politics. For example, usually it’s the loyalty to the sardars which to a large extent determines the politics in areas such as D.G. Khan and Rajanpur. Many of these solo warriors are, or are likely to be, a part of the Suba Mahaz.

Where does their individuality and refusal to be more permanently affiliated with a party lead to? Among other things, it provides the PML-N with a very valid reason to describe their departure from the party as not quite a defection. The anti-Sharif sentiment will indeed have to spread to individuals and regions for long-term party allegiance before it could truly be called a revolt.

This does not suggest that the PML-N should ignore the trend, but the challenge represented by the mahaz is not just theirs to tackle. This front is one of the early signs of the intent to thwart the PML-N, just as it is a reminder to the PTI of the borders it must limit itself to during the exercise that will, hopefully, culminate in a general election. The excitable politicians of the PTI must realise that not all the electables are going to fall into the party’s lap like ripe fruit. There are going to be species and regions Imran Khan is not going to have access to.

The Suba Mahaz is a setback to the PTI as well. It takes the focus off the PTI as the alternative to the PML-N and the PPP in Punjab and even beyond. This is seemingly the reason why the Imran Khan camp is trying desperately to project the Mahaz as a sister concern, or, at worst, a branch of the same tree that Imran Khan belongs to. Others may vehemently disagree.

The Junoobi Suba Mahaz is clearly an old method reapplied by Khusrau Bakhtiar & co to establish a line directly with the power brokers, bypassing the PTI option. More tellingly for the PTI, it is believed to be a line established by the ‘mysterious’ powers themselves. In other words, it is a way to contain the PTI even before it is in power — which is not to say that the PTI in its present ‘poised’ state would want to protest these limitations imposed on it.

On their part, the Suba Mahaz members have been around long enough to be aware of the need to establish direct contact with the sources of power. There is an explanation why they have been led by Khusrau Bakhtiyar, who has been around only as long as many of his colleagues in the mahaz. It is the exposure of Khusrau as a federal minister, his apparent knowledge about how best to connect with the fountainheads of power in Islamabad and its vicinity that distinguishes him. A bunch of politicians are banking on one man’s experience for an exploratory tour of the power corridors. In a way this best sums it up. It shows just how far the region is from the seat of power.

The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Lahore.

Published in Dawn, April 13th, 2018

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