NEW DELHI: With prospect of a nuclear war poised for the first time at the doorstep of India and Pakistan, concerned ordinary citizens are speaking out passionately on a subject that was until recently confined to war rooms and strategic studies institutes.

Since the two sub-continental neighbours became nuclear powers over three years ago, the prospect of war between India and Pakistan that have fought three wars previously, has always been a worry.

The fear has now been heightened by the words and actions of politicians in New Delhi and Islamabad, following the December terrorist attack on the Indian parliament, blamed by India on Pakistani intelligence agencies, a charge denied by Islamabad.

In an unprecedented move, India has cancelled its Army Day parade and is toying with the idea of cancelling or downsizing the Republic Day parade on Jan 26.

New Delhi has recalled its High Commissioner from Islamabad, halved its staff at its diplomatic mission, asked the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi to do the same, and cut off rail and bus links with Pakistan.

It has declared its skies out of bounds for Pakistan International Airlines. Leave for defence forces personnel has been cancelled, training courses have been suspended, reinforcement camps established and the Territorial Army stands mobilised. The armies of both countries stand in full battle readiness on the border.

Is South Asia headed for a nuclear conflagration? To go by Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s remarks on Jan 2, the possibility cannot be ruled out.

Vajpayee, who had earlier announced that India was engaged in a “fight to the finish” against terrorism and its sponsors across the border - a euphemism for Pakistan - said in his Lucknow parliamentary constituency that no weapon would be spared in this war.

Implicit is the threat of using nuclear weapons if the government thought it vital. Vajpayee and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been for long enamoured of the nuclear toy.

The recent brinkmanship - and hawkish utterances by leaders on both sides - have taken the subject of nuclear war and its consequences away from the generals and pundits and turned it into a matter of common concern.

“In the name of waging war against terrorism, war hysteria is being built up in our country. One is really worried what kind of turn this would take,” says Sahaba Husain, a human rights activist in New Delhi.

“The Kashmir issues has been reduced by the Indian government to cross-border terrorism, as if once it stops, the issue will be resolved on its own,” argues Gautam Navlakha, founder member of the Pakistan-India People’s Forum for Peace.

Sadia Khan, a Pakistani in New Delhi, says: “The increase in tensions between India and Pakistan is worrisome. I hope war does not take place. So far as nuclear war goes, one can’t even think about it.”

Clearly, people are unswayed by official propaganda. In contrast, well known newspaper commentators have been busy beating the war drums. Said one, “India cannot remain eternally patient and will have to take drastic measures, including war, if Pakistan does not behave.”

Others say international urgings for restraint may work. ”Whether we like it or not,” says Madhu Sudan Anand, senior editor of prominent Hindi daily Navbharat Times, “the Kashmir issue has been internationalised with major powers itching to intervene. Neither India nor Pakistan will be able to step out of line. So, in the ultimate analysis, war does not seem a distinct likelihood.”

India has presented a wish list to Pakistan saying it must stop promoting cross-border terrorism, arrest Kashmiri leaders who are actively engaged in planning and executing “terrorist” activities in the Muslim-majority province of Jammu and Kashmir from its soil, and hand them over to India.

“India is in fact emulating the US,” says Aditi Phadnis, Bureau Chief of Business Standard. “It is making demands on Pakistan in the same manner as the US did with Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden.”

A fifth Pakistan-India clash would engulf the entire region. If one of the warring nations decides - in a moment of desperation - to press the nuclear button, the other is bound to retaliate.

This nightmare scenario has begun to worry many. Ruchira Mukherjee, author of the novel Toad in My Garden, said: “ With its sheer size, Pakistan can never take on the military or the air might of India. But it has nuclear bombs and long-range delivery systems.”

Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes, in an interview, said: “India would not be deterred from acting militarily by Pakistan’s possession of nuclear arsenal. I can’t believe they would ever use it for the simple reason that they would be inviting a second strike. That could be devastating given Pakistan’s size.”

This leaves little doubt that both India and Pakistan are seriously considering the possibility of a nuclear confrontation. Defence expert Kanwar Sandhu asks if the nation that cries war would be willing to bear the aftermath of a nuclear exchange. He warns that the loss of life would not be limited to border towns but could reach Delhi, Mumbai and even farther into India.

In a letter to The Hindu newspaper, a group of citizens said: “Some disturbing utterances are being made to cross the Line of Control (between India and Pakistan) to attack militant bases across the border and to unleash a war a la Israel or the United States. This is a very dangerous trend of thought, as the analogy does not hold water. Nuclear weapon states cannot talk of war in such an irresponsible manner.” —Gemini News