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ISLAMABAD: As Pakistan navigates its troubled relationship with the United States, regional alliances are shifting and analysts ponder whether a cozier relationship with countries like Russia will complicate efforts to move towards peace in Afghanistan.
Russia, analysts say, is motivated by fears of a growing presence of the militant Islamic State (IS) group in Afghanistan and has warmed up to Pakistan as well as to the Taliban militants battling the upstart IS affiliate known as Khorasan Province, the ancient name of an area that once included parts of Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia.
In the latest move to strengthen ties, Russia last week named an honorary consul to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which borders Nangarhar province in eastern Afghanistan, where IS has established its headquarters. The IS was also present in northern Afghanistan’s border regions with Central Asia, causing further consternation in Moscow.
Russia’s honorary consul, Mohammad Arsallah Khan, who belongs to a powerful business family, said economic development was the best weapon against extremism. To that end, he said, he would promote increased commerce with Pakistan’s neighbours, including Russia, which currently accounted for barely $500 million in trade.
Reflecting on his business-based strategy, Khan said: “When you can give people a way of earning a living, they will turn away from terrorism, away from extremism.”
The appointment reflects a stark turnaround in Pakistan’s historical relationship with Russia.
In the 1980s, Pakistan and the US were united against Russia as the Soviet Union sent 150,000 soldiers into Afghanistan to prop up its communist ally in Kabul.
At the time, Pakistan, with US backing, used Peshawar as a staging arena to arm and deploy Islamist militants to wage war on Russia. After 10 years, Russia failed to win the war and on Feb 15, 1989, left Afghanistan in a negotiated exit.
For some, Russia’s cozying up to Pakistan is a bit of a “poke in the eye” to the US, still embroiled in the Afghan conflict that is now in its 17th year and is Washington’s longest war, costing more than $122 billion, according to its own special Inspector General on Afghan Reconstruction.
Daniel Markey, senior research professor in international relations at Johns Hopkins University, said Russian relations with Pakistan aimed to solve two problems for Moscow. First, to blunt the threat of IS from Afghanistan. Second, to undermine US influence, he said.
“The point is that Russia and Pakistan probably have more in common with respect to the war in Afghanistan than the United States has with either — and this is a real turnaround from prior history.”
Despite closer ties with Russia and a heavily invested China, for Pakistan even a bad relationship with the US was better than no relationship at all, said Andrew Wilder, Asia programme’s vice president at the US Institute of Peace.
“Pakistan losing the US as a strategic partner due to its Afghanistan policy, and ending up having to rely solely on China, is not a foreign policy success story for Pakistan — it’s a major foreign policy failure,” he said.
“Pakistan’s relationship with the US, even in its current weakened state, is still far more important in economic, diplomatic and security terms for Pakistan than its relationship with Russia.”
Meanwhile, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang told a press conference on Tuesday that Beijing appreciated Islamabad’s efforts to crack down on terrorist groups and intended to “continue to step up communication, coordination and collaboration with Pakistan in terms of counter-terrorism” cooperation.
“We have been calling on the international community to objectively and fairly view and evaluate Pakistan’s efforts in fighting terrorism, and not keep criticising the Pakistani side with prejudice,” he said.
Still Michael Kugelman, Asia Programme’s deputy director at the US-based Wilson Centre, warned against overstating the support for Pakistan of both China and Russia.
“We shouldn’t overstate how much Beijing and Moscow can compensate for US aid cuts and sanctions,” said Kugelman.
“China is not a charity and does not provide assistance on demand; it only provides support including to key allies like Pakistan when it serves its interests. Additionally, the extent of Russian support for Pakistan to this point is unclear.”
Published in Dawn, February 28th, 2018
