An appraisal of the agriculture sector raises hope that it has more to offer in the near future—but only after stakeholders learn to co-exist peacefully.

Pakistan will most likely miss the downward revised cotton production target of 12.6 million bales this year, along with the wheat target of 26.5m tonnes, owing to anticipated shortages in water supply.

Relying on estimates by the Cotton Crop Assessment Committee (CCAC), the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) recently released first quarter report shows cotton production at 12.6m bales. However, market sources and officials of Sindh and Punjab agriculture departments talk about 12m bales in the best case scenario.

Since arrival in cotton ginneries remained at 11.33m bales till January 15, the second assessment seems more realistic. Quoting the water authority of the country, the Indus River System Authority, the SBP report admits that meeting wheat output target may be challenging due to expected shortfall of 40 per cent in water availability.

Output of rice and sugar cane has remained above expected levels and maize production may also remain close to target. This means that crops will, by and large, post sufficient growth during the current fiscal year. Even if smaller crops fail, it will not make a huge impact in this proposition.

Officials of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFSR) say that in FY18, contribution of all crops in agriculture growth should be slightly more than FY17. Agriculture posted 3.5pc growth in FY17 of which around 1.1pc came via crops. In FY18 the agriculture sector as a whole is likely to grow 3.5-3.6pc.

In FY18 the agriculture sector as a whole is likely to grow 3.5-3.6 per cent

Beyond the numeric value (of crops’ contribution to agricultural growth), higher yield of rice, sugar cane, maize and wheat are going to set the stage for a sustainable growth rate in agriculture.

According to officials, anticipated Chinese investment in the country’s agriculture as part of CPEC should give further impetus to the sector’s growth rate. They say Beijing has already committed to setting up a fertiliser plant with output capacity of 800,000 tonnes per year in addition to investing in high-yield seeds production.

Besides, the Chinese have already agreed to set up a meat processing plant in Sindh to produce 200,000 tonnes of meat a year and two milk plants with a similar capacity. They have also indicated setting up a vegetable processing plant to process 200,000 tonnes of vegetables and fruit juice, along with a jam production plant with output capacity of 100,000 tonnes.

The SBP has further observed in its report that enhanced yield, better output prices, accelerated farm lending and government support (such as Khadim-e-Punjab Kissan Package) is augmenting crop sector performance.

Though water shortages can negatively impact Rabi crops, officials and farmers say supply of other basic inputs like fertilisers, seeds and pesticides is on target and can keep crop output stable.

Officials of provincial agriculture departments claim that smaller crops, including those of gram and oilseeds, will remain higher this year than in FY17. Though these crops carry little weight in the crop basket, yet a rise in their output should positively impact food industry and trade.

During this fiscal year, authorities have woken up to the seriousness of a long-neglected issue of the crop sector: digging deeper into the root cause of a traditional tiff between sugar cane growers and sugar millers, on the directive of the country’s apex court, they are facing two reality checks.

First, allowing multiple sugar mills ‘on political consideration’ and putting up with their unfair practices have shaken small cane growers. And second, permitting sugar cane plantation to feed a larger number of mills has resulted in shrinkage in the area under cultivation of cotton.

Senior MNFSR officials privately admit that the country needs a more judicious distribution of land for growing various crops based on their total contribution to the economy.

After agriculture’s devolution to the provinces from FY11, all four segments (crops, livestock, fisheries and poultry and forestry) have gotten increased policy attention. But, for obvious reasons, discussions on agriculture mostly revolve around crops despite the fact that livestock has a more than 50pc share in the sector, according to FY17 sector-wise GDP.

So, even if crop performance in FY18 remains better than in FY17, much will depend on livestock to push agricultural growth at 3.5pc or beyond.

In FY17, out of the 3.5pc growth in agriculture two per cent originated from livestock, yet livestock’s prospects are seldom discussed. The nation is to date unaware whether a physical census of animals, due in 2016, has even been conducted.

The animal population for each fiscal year is worked out on the basis of inter-census growth rates of two previous physical animal head counting, the last one carried out in 2006. That also opens up avenues for working out milk and meat production in the country.

This has to change. At the very least the authorities must inform about the reason for delay or, if the activity has been carried out, make public the preliminary results.

However, since domestic sales of meat and dairy products have been growing and export of meat, despite some slippage, remains large an estimate can be made regarding the livestock sector’s performance.

Besides, food sector companies that not only use cereals as raw materials but also milk, cream and other locally produced dairy products continue to do a roaring business. That, along with the sale of sacrificial animals on Eid-ul-Azha gives an optimistic picture of the livestock sector.

Without being specific, officials of MNFSR say livestock’s contribution in agricultural growth in FY18 is expected to remain more or less the same as in FY17. Some of them even agree with the notion that provincial departments dealing with livestock and fisheries must share more information with media and the general public.

Until that is done, performance of crops alone would continue to dominate discussion on agricultural growth prospects as is also evident from the notes on agriculture in the SBP report.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 29th,2018