ISLAMABAD, Jan 7: Half-yearly trade deficit has amounted to $425 million against $922 million during the same period last year, with indications that exports would be short of the government’s target by around $1.5 billion.

The unofficial provisional trade figures provided to Dawn suggest that total exports during first six months (July-December) this year have amounted to $4.450 billion compared with $4.474 billion same period last year, showing a decline of 0.54 per cent. In rupee terms, half-yearly exports increased by 11.4 per cent.

Similarly, half-yearly imports have amounted to $4.875 billion compared with $5.395 billion during same period of last year, recording a negative growth of 9.65 per cent. Based on these figures, the import target of $11 billion is estimated to remain short of target by over $1 billion.

Initial analysis of the trade figures for first half of the current year suggests that although the trade deficit was within the annual target parameters, the export target of $10.1 billion will not be achievable in the existing circumstances.

Given the fact that first three months (July-September) were unaffected by the attacks on United States and if the post-September 11 impact on exports continues the shortfall would be even higher.

On monthly basis, the trade balance in December tilted in favour of Pakistan by around $6.7 million. In November 2001, there was a trade deficit of around $14 million and in December 2000, trade deficit was slightly over $4 million.

Exports during December 2001, amounted to $713.96 million compared with $750.940 million same month last year, showing a decline of 4.84 per cent.

Imports in December stood at $707.27 million against $754.75 million same month last year, registering a decrease of 6.29 per cent. In the preceding month of November imports had stood at $825 million which showed that last month imports in December declined by 14 per cent.

The shortfall in exports would have direct impact on the overall economy, particularly the revenue target that has already been slashed to Rs430 million against budgeted target of Rs457 billion.

On the imports front, decline has apparently two main reasons: Slow down in industrial growth and sluggish economic activity as a result of post-September 11 events and decline in petroleum imports both in terms of quantity and value against slow industrial and commercial activity and decline in international oil prices.

Till last month i.e. July to November 2001, Pakistan’s export of raw cotton, synthetic fabrics, carpets and cutlery had drastically been affected.

During July to November period raw cotton exports declined by 93.6 per cent, synthetic fabrics by 20.23 per cent, carpets by 22 per cent and cutlery fell by 14 per cent over the same period last year.

This loss of foreign exchange through fall in exports was partially offset by 24.74 per cent reduction in oil imports that stood at $1.187 billion against $1.578 billion same period last year. In terms of value, import of petroleum products declined by 36 per cent and amounted to $617 million during five months of current year against $961 million last year.

Similarly, the import of crude oil declined by 7.54 per cent during first five months of current year and stood at $570 million against $616 million same period last year.

Interestingly, the quantity of the import of petroleum products reduced by around 21 per cent and stood at 34 million tons against 43 million tons last year despite the fact that domestic refineries were running at 70 per cent capacity. In overall terms, trade deficit reached till last month (July-November) had amounted to $434 million which decreased to $425 million in six months.

Total exports during five months (July-November) this year had amounted to $3.735 billion compared with $3.724 billion same period last year, showing an improvement of 0.29 per cent.

Similarly, five months imports had amounted to $4.169 billion compared with $4.641 billion during first five months of last year, recording a negative growth of around 10 per cent.