The tall talk, globetrotting and endless meetings of the commerce ministry’s hierarchy have done little to serve the country’s commercial interests. Pakistan’s trade deficit has ballooned, its share dwindled, terms have favoured partners and the agenda of regional integration has been lost to politics.

The private sector and its platforms (chambers and sectoral associations) also cannot be absolved of their share of responsibility in this regard. Instead of strategising to build on comparative advantage, the private sector has leaned heavily on the government for concessions.

The collective forums have failed to facilitate and guide members on competitiveness to capitalise on business opportunities in the world market. They focus on promoting the culture of patronage and backdoor dealings for petty gains.

The Pakistan Business Council (PBC), an elite body that likes to project itself as a counterpart to the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), was an exception. It produced some valuable research-based reports on the status of trade with recommendations and its country reports drew on historical bilateral trade data to pan out the scope in detail.

The PBC identified policy gaps and found flaws in all multilateral and bilateral trade deals. It called on the government to put a moratorium on all future free trade and preferential trade agreements.

‘The leadership’s commitment to regional integration were political statements that no one expected to mean much’

The current State Bank Annual report pointed out: “The increase in the current account deficit was mainly due to a 17.8 per cent surge in the country’s import bill, which shot up to a record $48.6 billion in FY17…. With export receipts falling for the third consecutive year, the trade deficit increased to a record-high $32.5bn in FY17… declining exports, both in terms of absolute value as well as in per cent of GDP, pose a clear challenge for the external sector’s stability.”

A closer study of the trade data set reveals that Pakistan’s share, unfortunately, has been shrinking both in the region collectively, and with each Saarc member-nation, individually. In the SBP Annual Report Statistical Supplement FY17, for some reason South and Central Asia are clubbed together in tabulation.

Over the past three years exports in the region have fallen from $3.1bn in FY15 to $2.5bn in 2017 and imports have risen marginally from $1.58bn in FY15 to $1.98bn in 2017, depicting a deteriorating trade balance with regional partners. The total volume of regional trade reduced from $4.71bn to $4.40bn over the same period.

Bilateral trade with Afghanistan dipped from $1.7bn in FY15 to $1.1bn in FY17, with Bangladesh from $0.74bn to $0.68bn, with Iran from $0.31bn to $0.30bn and with Sri Lanka from $0.54bn to $0.10bn in FY17.

India was the only exception as total trade over the same period increased from $1.8bn in FY15 to $3.1bn in FY17.The fact that the increase was on account of imports from the eastern neighbour is another dimension.

Some weeks back, Gen Bajwa in a much-quoted seminar on the economy in Karachi hammered the value of regional trade and commerce as he said the fortunes of Pakistan are tied with the future of the region.

Several attempts were made to reach the hierarchy of the commerce ministry in Islamabad but the top layer, including the secretary and the minister, was outside Pakistan while the rest preferred not to be accessible. Some who did answer repeated calls, politely excused themselves as they said they were not authorised to deal with the media.

Privately, however, a few admitted that there was no defence for the ministry’s underperformance, particularly during a time when, after a long gap, the private sector was motivated and ready to expand the production/trade base.

A source within told Dawn that the top heavy ministry has serious capacity problems as most officers had little interest or insight on trade-related issues. “There is a lot of running around but virtually no movement in the right direction,” a frustrated officer stated.

“The commitments by the leadership to regional integration were all political statements that no one expected to mean much. The Saarc engagement did not deliver for Pakistan as, for every step forward, the country takes two steps back,” he added.

“It is not an accident that the percentage of Pakistan’s regional trade as a percentage of total has trailed behind the low average in the region. In 2012 when intra-regional trade as a percentage of total trade in the region was 4.2pc, in Pakistan it was 3.5pc. By 2016 it inched up to 5.5pc in the region with Pakistan at 4.5pc,” an official at the Saarc Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s office in Islamabad regretted.

In 2017, the Asian Economic Integration Report introduced an interactive composite index, the Asia- Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index.

It measures regional integration across six components, including trade and investment, money and finance, regional value chains, infrastructure and connectivity, movement of people, and institutional and social integration.

The index is aimed at helping policymakers better understand and measure the levers for greater regional integration and cooperation. Efforts to work the index for Pakistan and South Asia did not work as unlike the Pacific region the trade data of several South Asian countries was missing.

“Islamabad lacks capability for commercial diplomacy which needs a specialised skill set that bureaucrats lack. However, the core issue is the fear of the power yielders who abhor change,” said an expert, who carefully chose his words but backed out from owning them.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, October 30th, 2017