KARACHI, Aug 21: The Ministry of Finance estimates total exports in the fiscal 2002-03 at $11.3 billion after taking into account $200 million worth of “informal rupee export trade” with Afghanistan.

But the Export Promotion Bureau has put final estimates of 2002-03 exports at $11.13 billion. It has raised the final export figures by $100 million after taking into account the leftover export bills of last few weeks collected at airports and border checkposts.

Encouraged by $100 million increase in the final counting of export earnings, the EPB has pushed up its export projection for the current fiscal year by $700 million to $12.10 billion.

At the time of budget announcement in June this year, the official export projection for the current fiscal year was given at $11.47 billion. But after recent estimates, the EPB now expects to net $12.10 billion export proceeds by June 2004.

Bulk of this $700 million export increase will come from textiles. Original export projection for textile exports was $7.54 billion. The revised projections show $450 million increase and textile exports are now expected to fetch almost $8 billion earnings in 2003-04. Hopes are pinned in yarn, fabrics, garments and bedwears. These items are expected to earn more than $6 billion.

“An investment of more than $4 billion in textiles during the last four years and aggressive market techniques by about 20 big groups convince us that $8 billion projections are too conservative and cautious,” a senior EPB official said. He looked confident that by June next textile products would fetch anywhere up to $9 billion.

His optimism is endorsed by a leader of Aptma who is confident of making headway not only in the conventional markets of United States and West Europe but is sure to break new grounds in East Europe, Africa, East Asia and even in South America. Big textile groups now do not depend on the government support for exploring market for their products. In fact a few of these groups help the government provide guidance to the upcoming and relatively small textile exporters in their quest to explore market for their products.

But all this optimism is based on a bumper cotton crop and a good yield of contamination-free cotton by next September and October. Rains in late August and in September can knock out all the initial projections of cotton crop and cause immense damage. It will bring textile industry under severe strain.

The planners have projected $50 million export earnings from cotton in the current fiscal year. There is no information if there is any contingency plan in case of damage to cotton crop.

“We are prepared for the worst,” the Aptma leader said, who pointed out that last four decades business experience had taught them a lot of lessons. “We will get cotton from near and far sources in case of any eventuality,” he said making a point that textile units will continue to run and operate “because we want to maintain our presence in export market.”

There are eight items, which are clubbed in core category by the export planners. These are: rice, leather, sports goods, wool and carpets, surgical instruments, petroleum products, molasses, meat and meat products. In 2002-03, these eight items fetched $2.1 billion. These items are now expected to earn $2.35 billion.

Fish export is a matter of concern for the planners. At stake is $150 million projected earning for the current fiscal because of the oil leakage in Karachi sea water by a Greece ship since July 27. There are confusing reports of the impact of this disaster, which dislocated population from the posh areas in Clifton and Defence for at least few days. The government is now trying to convince that oil slick is causing no threat to marine life. But hardly anyone believes it. The EPB is taking stock of the situation.

But fish is one of the 10 items put into developmental category. Besides fish, these include fruits and vegetables, chemical products, engineering goods, marble and granite, gems and jewellery, IT services, poultry, wheat and services. This category of 10 items is estimated to fetch about $1 billion.

In addition to these the export planners expect over $800 million earning from export of guar and guar products, cement, sugar, oil seeds, animal casings, handicrafts, tobacco, spices and some other items.