Dear reader, online ads enable us to deliver the journalism you value. Please support us by taking a moment to
AND now we wait. Wait for them to break him. Wait and see how they’ll do it. Wait and see what it’ll mean for the rest of us. Because Nawaz is trapped.
Trapped by himself.
There’s no need to pussyfoot around. Nawaz has no plan. He knows what he wants, but he doesn’t know how to get it. And neither of those things is good for — or even about — the rest of us.
From here, they’ve got him. Because Nawaz wants to cling on in a system that he doesn’t want to improve.
What Nawaz wants is obvious.
He wants the N-League to win the next election. That’s possible. He wants to find a way back into the system. That’s unlikely. And he wants Maryam to eventually succeed him. That’s the X factor in all of this.
The thing about political capital — which Nawaz has topped up with the GT Road tamasha — is that you have to know what to do with it.
Last weekend was a fork in the road. The fanciful path — the one to strengthening the democratic project — was if Nawaz had installed himself as an éminence grise, the wise old man of politics steering things from outside.
Look, the system isn’t working and we all know why, Nawaz could have said. I’m now out but here’s what you guys — my party, the other parties — can do to help fix things.
It had to be big-ticket stuff. A new accountability regime. A justice revolution at the grass roots. Unshackling the economy. An admission that the existing PML-N strategy had failed.
It was always a low-probability event — Nawaz wasn’t suddenly about to become more than the sum of his politics.
But neither side of the fork was about meekness. The other option was violent collision. You want me, come and get me. I’ll burn everything to the ground.
A mystery about Nawaz has been his coyness this time round. While he still had his job, it may have made sense — if you don’t react to the attack, they may not go all the way.
But even then it didn’t always make sense. He allowed a seven-month spell of political torture, bookended by two irruptions by the boys, because he was unable to tell successive chiefs — enough.
What’s done is done, now cut the crap and let’s get back to business.
But he didn’t and he ended up losing his job anyway. And even now he’s being coy. Everyone knows what he’s trying to say, so why not just say it?
I, your rightful prime minister, believe that the military has colluded with the judiciary to remove me because I want friendship with India and peace in Afghanistan.
This isn’t about corruption, this is about power and control and conflict over what kind of country Pakistan should be.
Just say it.
What’s the worst they can do? Chuck him in jail?
Possibly. Probably. Yes. So what? Unless, of course, Nawaz doesn’t think this business of politics is worth going to jail for.
And so, when he arrived at the fork last weekend, Nawaz chose neither the good path nor the bad one and tried instead to find a middle way.
A stupid middle way that has failure written all over it.
You can see what he’s trying to do: gather enough political capital to prevent the other side from dismantling his party and eliminating his side of the family from the political frame.
It’s a strategy of self-survival based on the idea that by gaining fresh support in the political arena he’s increasing the cost of what the other side wants to do to him in the power arena.
But because it’s obvious, it’s stupid.
From here, they’ve got him. Because Nawaz wants to cling on in a system that he doesn’t want to improve and in which he has the fewer options.
Why won’t he just let go? That’s probably the wrong question. Why should he let go? He’s built a political machine that dominates the biggest province in the land.
Find a man who would just walk away from a prize like that and you’ll have found a man better than Nawaz — and everyone else.
But the bigger mistake has been to not groom Maryam earlier. She is wildly unprepared to bring to heel the beasts that are Punjab politics and the PML-N. Her ambition is the inverse of her experience.
So Nawaz is stuck — even if he wanted to let go, Maryam isn’t ready to take over yet.
You almost — almost — have to feel sorry for him. Because it will be a cruel process by which they’ll whittle him down politically from here.
They may do it methodically or they may do it extravagantly. They can do it through the courts or they can do it through his own party.
They may leave him to twist in the wind, politically bloodied but doltishly hopeful, or they may just brutally decapitate him.
It’ll depend on what they need and when. Maybe the electoral veneer will be deemed worth keeping, maybe there’s a deal to be had in Punjab.
And if you can’t bring yourself to feel sorry for Nawaz, feel sorry for yourself — and for all of us.
Because this democracy thing is done. Maybe not in form, but already in substance.
The other side is the anti-democrats. By definition they aren’t out to fix democracy or force substantive change; they want control and democracy is the opposite of control.
So all we had was the possibility of the democracy side doing helpful things for the democratic project when the moment arrived.
The moment arrived and Nawaz had nothing.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, August 20th, 2017
Comments (55) Closed
You have got the guts to say the truth in front of parties - i wish people like you to be part of politics but alas who would like to be part of dirty politics in Pakistan
For the first time I feel compelled to agree with you. Briliant analysis.
Just superb write up.
Brilliant analysis. Stay safe
"He allowed a seven-month spell of political torture, bookended by two irruptions by the boys, because he was unable to tell successive chiefs — enough."
Loved the play of words, especially the usage of bookended and irruptions. Nice, nice. Looking forwards to more of such pleasurable reading.
Cyril always write according to weather. Good job.
Whoever can deliver democracy is most welcome!
Some people have a tendency to project themselves out and try to look at the reality from external perspective, things appear simple, over simplified by abstraction. When astronauts look at the earth from space, there appears earth that has half water and half dirt, water is trying to cover the earth by sipping storms and tides, ground is pushing back by raising it's coastal crust. Your analysis is as simple as that. All thinking working human are nothing but pains in your game theory. Please get over your obsession of military. Get real, Pakistan is getting younger, more educated, not literate, educated with informal knowledge, there is more to it than just your.game theory application.
Dear DAWN, I am your great admirer. You have many courageous and briliant journlists. Pray for their safety. Keep doing excellant work. Todays articles by Cyril Almeida and by Editor are so real and thought provoking. Long live DAWN.
A leader must know the art of management and acquisition of goals. Sultan Qabus of Oman is a successful dictator, but is gifted with requisite qualities of a great leader.
Right on. Gr8 analyric views!
Simply written and lucid. Cyril! Sorry, but this time you have written so nicely that I understood what it was you wanted to say. Well done and keep the short and meaningful. Salams
Stay safe bro... Stay safe
You are of a very rare category of PK journalists and I have pleasure reading your articles and analyses. They are brutal and uncompromising but never insulting. Keep it up.
Oh God! This guy is brilliant beyond amazing. Gutsy article and plain truth.
@AA excellent analysis
Tha's why he is trying to get rid of article 62, 63 from the Constitution to continue plundering the national treasury with impunity. .
oh dear beautiful write up
Such brilliant write up! More power to your pen cyril!
Another brave and honest write up, preach on Cyril .
Reluctantly agree with you. Only better machine was fashioned here in Cook County(Chicago). Where mantra was and may be is vote early and often ,it did not matter even if you passed away. Vote still counted.
But this is a sham democracy, and I have over the past few years have started to develop a kind of respect for MNS because of his clearer concepts and trying to bring in ideas not too dear to the establishment, and it is quite miraculous how a essentially politically inept politician has evolved and come of age. It was still a sham democracy as the party still won because it knew election art and knew how one can manipulate and what it takes to win Punjab and win Pakistan in the way, and no remorse on just being Punjab limited. And still the real brother is too much of a realist, ready to sleep with anyone; any time. Which was him too till 99. I disagree if we are made to believe it was only the PMLN who was holding the democratic fabric together. The other side will do the same, as was done by him in 90s, and so we can't feel too sorry about this. We pray the balance and the disposition of power will iron out in the future; having his party in or out does not and should not affect us
No dear Cyril, if your this analysis is correct, and Nawaz is really trapped. All "analysts" like you who have been portraying him as "invincible" and "indispensable" are also responsible. The recklessness you guys encouraged was neither good for him nor for the political process.
@fARIDA His ultimate regret is NS didn't timely groom MN. Lolz
He had a few grains of gold dust thats all. He was not the one to give us democracy. Lets move on. We never had any democracy. Lets keep trying. But first lets learn some honesty!
@shoaib but why do u even consider believing that NS or his cronies are LEADERS. At best they are leaders. Did we ever had leaders let alone visionaries. Maybe a couple since the partition. Qaid e Azam , a leader, yes,; but a visionary??
Salam - what a bold write-up. Summing up the entire case of Power game, wrapped into so much of legal cover [600 pages + now 10 Boxes]. I wish NS his advisers would read this calmly, ponder on the message, discuss in detail and try to change to course. It is still not too late to say the truth, and be prepared to go behind the bars. You would be remembered by historians for changing or daring to change the system! Remember Nelson Mandela was able to bring down apartheid, though it took a long time!
@Ravian : The same Chicago has sent two recent Governors to jail for corruption. That kind of thing can happen in India but not yet in Pakistan.
Assalamu alaikum. I beg your pardon? "Nawaz is stuck, even if he wanted to let go!"
Let go of what?
I can let go of clinging onto someone I care about. I can let go of a portion of what I possess. I can let go of the power and position I still hold.
...but pray tell us, how can someone let go of already lost glory, authority and position? It was therefore never about letting go, but about surrendering to a court verdict and and several references filed against NS and his kith & kin.
To insinuate, that despite his outright disqualification and counts of corruption, readers should entertain the thought of what is going in his mind, or reflect upon his ambitions and aspirations of turning a democracy into a monarchy, is being disingenuous to an entire nation's heaving a sigh of relief on that justice should prevail.
Cyril Amedia, I believe thinks Pakistan is UK or USA. His analysis of Pakistan politics seems so foreign. Seems like he never lived in Pakistan.
BRILLIANT BRILLIANT BRILLIANT I AM ENCHANTING AT EVERY WORD OF THIS BEAUTIFUL PIECE ...
You forgot one want. He wants the NAB cases to disappear. Not happening though
Blame them and let not bother about your own mistakes, Always only one perspective, one side of the picture. For every reality, there is always my side, your side and a reality. So why one side ? You are preconceived. An analyst should be like a mirror and exact.
Bottom line, the real tiger has woken up and the paper tiger is finished.
Some clumsy acts by Nawaz recently that will hurt him more. He wants to change the constitution without saying what and how. These sayings and acts look more partisan than for the benefit of nation.
"I, your rightful prime minister, believe that the military has colluded with the judiciary to remove me because I want friendship with India and peace in Afghanistan." Salutes bhaijaan. I worry for your safety, as we, the silent majority in this hapless place, cannot really speak our minds like you do, eloquently. Be safe, and do not become another fatal statistic like so many before you, those jackals get their marks most of the time, hook or by crook. Sadly, even neighboring Iran can have a green revolution, but we may never have one. Wishful musings, all the very best to our nation. Pakistan Zindabad.
The thing is, if NS was honest and competent the masses would not tolerate a "soft coup" they would overwhelming reject it and take to the streets. An example is in Turkey, they tried a coup and failed, pathetically failed. Duarte is hated outside the Phillipines but inside they love him. Same could be said about Modi I believe. Those leaders being deposed would NOT be tolerated but in PK it was.
Whay are'nt people like you and several others who write such sensible, honest and real articles about the situation in Pakistan and about it's corrupt venal politicians and "THE BOYS" NOT in politics. That's what Pakistan needs.
Nawaz had "NOTHING" - the leaders who's living rooms are in London would never have "ANYTHING". So let us wait for the one who's loss and profit account is as empty as ours. Many nations found them and we will too - do not let the show stop!!! Many faces (Nawazs, Zardaries, Khans, Shaikhs, Boys,...etc.) are feeling the brunt of clear day light. And news is that the current lot of them would sell their souls - just price needs to be right.
I don't understand the writer's infatuation with army. He thinks that every thing is a conspiracy by army and I am amazed by the confidence he mentions his theories. To think that top brass of army and judges of supreme court, sat on one table, to conspire against Nawaz is a ridiculous notion.
@AA We are all waiting, please don't disappoint us! Lead from the front.
However, I have not seen a single word where Cyril said anything for or against the younger generation. His commentary is about the current events and how Mr. Sharif could have been candid and saved his position along with democracy.
@AA fantastic..
All politicians must unite together and decide not to let generals rule theccountry,because this is not their job,save Pakistan before it is too late
What Nawaz really wants is for Pakistanis to understand his greatness. He wants people to know he has been misunderstood, and whatever he has done was done in the best interests of the nation. He wants to be accorded honors second only to those of Mohammed Ali JInnah. We wants people to understand that God has been guiding him all along the way.
Nawaz couldnt provide money trail to his enormous wealth in the court. How is this all a conspiracy by the army??
precisely people now want end of status que nice write up.
But voters' sanctity is being dishonoured with international pressure.
But what about his failure in presenting money trail to the court, what about his lies to parliament and nation, what about fake documents....How can you justify these lies and put all blame on judiciary and military. Lob sided analysis , cannot convince a neutral reader.
@fARIDA Hmm... Cyril has done a good job for greater democracy here, but I can sense what else you mean to say honey. As a matter of fact, foreign interference makes politics dirty and distrupts infrasturcture with poverty & overpopulation instead.
U have the guts to speaks about the so called. Ex prime minster. He can see that his party has been dismantled and I hope this sharif hierarchy is shattered soon It's about time sharif word needs to be out of the politics.
May be for once you can also comment on how corrupt NS and his family is. You can blame the boys all you want but no prime minister would have to cede any power to the military unless they are corrupt to the very core and thus feel vunerable. Period.
Not a single word about or against NS' corruption in his writings. Democracy is nothing but serving the people of a republic. NS has been the head of democracy for long periods, and if the head be fouled, what can one expect from the tail of it?
It is known all over the world that Nawaz is dimmest politician ever. There are no surprises in whatever he does.
@Narinder Dogra - Good observation. His children look the part too!
Living in US and as a voter , I witnessed the political landscape when US Supreme Court gave virdict favoring George Bush vs. Al Gore. We all expected a show of resentment , disagreement, anger from Al Gore against the SC judgement. No , he did not. He quietly waked away in the interest of the nation. That is the difference between Mian Nawaz Sharif and ex Vice President of the United States.