WASHINGTON: India’s nuclear strategy, which has traditionally focused on Pakistan, now appears to place increased emphasis on China, says a report in the July-Aug issue of the US digital journal Bulletin of Atomic Sciences.

The report warns that this shift will also enhance India’s first strike capability against Pakistan.

Authors Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris point out that India is now developing at least four new weapons systems as part of a plan to modernise its nuclear arsenal.

The authors argue that this change of focus from Pakistan to China will result in significantly new capabilities being deployed over the next decade that may influence how India views nuclear weapons’ role against Pakistan.

“The force requirements India needs in order to credibly threaten assured retaliation against China may allow it, to pursue more aggressive strategies — such as escalation dominance or a ‘splendid first strike’ — against Pakistan,” they warn.

The authors note that the new systems that India is now working on will either complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems and sea-based systems.

The report estimates that India now has enough plutonium for 150–200 nuclear warheads but has likely produced only 120–130.

“Nonetheless, additional plutonium will be required to produce warheads for missiles now under development, and India is reportedly building two new plutonium production facilities,” the report adds.

The authors note that while India has traditionally been focused on deterring Pakistan, its nuclear modernisation indicates that it is putting increased emphasis on its future strategic relationship with China.

The report notes that the impact of India’s efforts to modernise its nuclear arsenal was highlighted in 2016 during yet another border dispute with Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, July 14th, 2017