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EITHER way, we’ve hit a wall. Nawaz goes or Nawaz stays, the transition to democracy has stalled.
And it’s hard to see what’ll get it back on track.
The great big evolution in this transition, the one triggered by the ouster of Musharraf, was in electoral democracy. You win, you stay — full term, no funny business.
That understanding was forged between Nawaz and BB and it was forged in the fire of more than two decades of mutual self-destruction. When we fight, they win — an equation as obvious as it was difficult to accept.
But once it was internalised, a real move forward was possible. You win, you stay — full term, no funny business. The Charter of Democracy.
Asif initially tried to tamper with that, but he was quickly back. Memories are short and the episode short-lived, but the only direct attack against democracy in this transition was launched by the PPP against the PML-N.
It made sense. Asif was a novice and not bound by the pact BB had made. He had always been collateral damage, not the reason the fires had raged before nor the real target of the flames.
A tragedy of our democracy is that it is made out to be about someone else’s loss.
So he tried to chuck out Shahbaz in Punjab. It didn’t cost Asif — at least not immediately — but it did cost all of us.
Politics is full of such ironies, but this one is especially bittersweet: had Asif not ousted Shahbaz in Punjab, Iftikhar Chaudhry could have remained in limbo.
But because Asif used the courts and the Dogar interloper, he brought the iron gavel of Chaudhry crashing on all our heads.
Asif eventually paid a merciless price, the Sharifs even landing memogate in the court of Chaudhry. But Asif is gone, beaten back to his base in Sindh. The rest of us are still here.
Ask yourself this: if it weren’t for Chaudhry, would we even be here today, a country in suspense, wondering if another elected prime minister is about to marched to the political guillotine?
Yet, for all of Asif’s sins, the stalling of the democratic project was also begun with him. He was its first victim.
Asif will never get a fair shake, not now, not ever, but there is a mystery at the heart of Zardari’s PPP. Why has he let it collapse so?
It boggles the mind, an implosion so spectacular outside Sindh that it’s embarrassing to even deploy the Asif-has-achieved-in-10-years-what-the-boys-couldn’t-in-30 argument.
It’s easy to blame corruption. Zardari’s love for property and shady deals are epic vices. But everything we’ve learned, everything we’ve seen in the repeated swatting aside of Bilawal, is of a man who is hungry for more; a man hungry for politics.
Even from the straightforward approach of a man desperate to get back in the political game just to make more money, a subdued, self-sabotaging Asif makes no sense.
Better to run the IK path of electables or the Sharif path of crony capitalism than to shut yourself out of the game altogether. It makes no sense, except for this: Asif doesn’t believe the boys will ever let him return to power.
Why struggle for Punjab or in KP if in your heart of hearts, you don’t think they’ll ever allow you to return to the top of the pile? Why not just protect the base and plot for second best?
Scoff at it, decry it, but Zardari’s predicament is about a devastating power struggle and one side’s perception of the other. And not to put too much of a gloss on it — it is, after all, Asif — but it is about breaking the civilians.
Asif was their first victim.
Now, it’s Nawaz’s turn. It makes a difference if he survives or not. Democratic form is the most obvious path to democratic substance.
But already something else has been signalled across this land. On this day, a day before the submission of a report that seems more anticipated than the results of election night, it is shockingly clear:
Nawaz can be ousted.
That right there is the transition hitting a wall. Nawaz may survive. He may not. But he’ll only survive as Nawaz the prime minister that the country believed the boys could have ousted if they wanted to.
That right there is the power equation. And Nawaz is on the wrong side of it.
But forget about Nawaz. And Asif.
And IK. A tragedy of our democracy is that it is made out to be about someone else’s loss.
Oh no, they’re after Asif. Actually, Asif deserves it. Oh no, they’re after Nawaz. Well, maybe Nawaz deserves it. Oh no, they’ve got it in for IK. But could IK have behaved better?
Tomorrow or a week from tomorrow or a month from tomorrow, Nawaz’s fate will be clear. But the fate of the transition to democracy already is.
If they can get the prime minister, the transition is about as weak as it was when it began.
That’s our loss, yours and mine. Democracy isn’t Nawaz, Asif or IK; it’s what they, the boys, can snatch from us.
And that brings us to the final problem. Survive or not, Nawaz already looks like a loser. Win the election next year and a template already exists to bleed him carefully over the next five years.
And so from inside that wretched pit, the one the transition may have plunged into, there is that desperate temptation: may as well let IK have his turn?
The transition to democracy, after all, may already have hit a wall.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, July 9th, 2017
Comments (71) Closed
In other words: Do whatever you like, between the elections, in the name of democracy. Sounds more like a kingdom with managed periodic elections.
All Cyril is doing is blaming the boys. He forgets that the Supreme Court is going to be disqualifying Nawaz. The Supreme Court is not disqualifying PML or democracy as Cyril is pointing to. It's only disqualifying Nawaz. Why? It's because of Nawaz's corruption.
Pakistan is changing. People are waking up. Pakistanis don't want robbers to rob them anymore. This isn't Army vs. Democracy. This is the people vs. corruption.
How is courts ruling on someone's corruption and disqualifying the member against whom the corruption has been proved "stalling the democracy". Isn't this the beauty of democracy? No one dissolving parliament. Just like in England, the parliament can elect a new leader. Where is the democracy in danger?
Somebody should tell the non-elected self-appointed guardians of Pakistan that the ouster of Nawaz Sharif and anointment of IK or AZ as Prime Minister -- or another direct take-over by the 'boys' -- will be a cruel joke .... and disastrous for the country.
What an analysis! As always brilliant & incisive. Take care.
Cyril, Lets reflect for a moment. Do we really need this sham democracy. And could this sham democracy be PANACEA to all our problems.
What we need is TRANSFORMATION, NOT TRANSITION.........
Ridiculous. Accountability is part of democracy anywhere in the world. You want democracy but not accountability? Being elected does not wash away your past sins.
well said and as always honest, very brave
Take it easy, Sir!
Democracy is a rare, limited commodity just like cash, electricity, clean drinking water, education, justice or health care.
The politicians have all been generously granted plenty of democracy.
They should be grateful to their benefactors and serve them well.
Others will have to wait.
Sorry!
Cyril dude ... It's pretty simple .... The only way democracy survives is when political elements follow the principles of moral high ground rather than going to courts ... Why else do you think democracy is working in west ... Do you think they are idiots when they resign at the drop of the hat ... They only do that to preserve democracy by doing the right thing rather than taking the whole system down with them ... Had all of the parties involved followed the same democratic principles no "boys" would have dated to do a single thing.
I'm amazed at your obfuscation of a simple act of corruption being unearthed by an international media investigation into some sort of attack on democracy. PM Nawaz should have resigned, appointed someone else from his party (family) and carried on the democratic journey. But alas, this was never about democracy for PM Nawaz. This was all about his own ego.
I beg to differ, the transition to democracy do not necessarily mean a rule by Nawaz or Zardari, you have to diffrentiate b/w a system we all stand for and defend and personalities who have skeleton in their cupboards
If looting of public money and institutionalising corruption is democracy in Pakistan- then Thank You! We are better off when some general gives us local bodies, free press, invests in education and arts etc etc
Oh please!
Amazing analysis as always
Democracy does not finish with ouster of one or two corrupt individuals. Look at UK. Cameron resigned after Brexit disaster and was replaced by another individual after party leadership elections. PM of iceland resigned and was replaced. PM Gilani had to leave after judicial orders and was replaced by somebody else. This is true democracy not the one run by Zardari and NS. Very sad to see a learned writer like this author taking this narrow view of democracy. Democracy means rule of law, equality, justice and accountability and is not dependent on one individual clinging to power at all cost.
Democracy does not belong to Nawaz. It will survive with or without him.
Stalling a kleptocracy will do wonders for true democracy in Pakistan. A dept not independent in functioning is not worth having.
A tragedy of our democracy is that it is made out to be about someone else’s loss. IK, Nawz and Asif read it ten times and public should read and learn this thousand time thn there is a chance to save democracy in this country.
The proper epitaph to this phase of democracy experiment in pakistan.
So, IK might win in the end through "electoral college" Pakistani style set up by the collusion of supreme court, JIT and the boys instead of popularity contest through elections.
Things might have been different if media houses had ever paid attention to this point,
As always annoying in the beginning and ends on such a thoughtful note. Classic Cyril!
This is an absurd claim to stay democracy is dead in the water. We are actually strengthening the democratic process by going through this judicial trial of a sitting PM. A thriving democracy needs a strong independent judiciary as its cornerstone. And if that judiciary rules that our prime minister is corrupt then we need to accept it and not think that democracy is in any danger.
A Well articulated piece of writing but the bottom line is despair!
So you think now there is turn of Imran khan....
““ A tragedy of our democracy is that it is made out to be about someone else’s loss.””
In a country where liberty is made out to be a luxury, true democracy will never be established.
QUOTE : ( Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch.
Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!
BENJAMIN FRANKLIN )
Disagree. Ouster of nawaz by the courts makes the democracy project stronger not weaker.
Cong rates Cyril for such a prosaic write up. Keep it up.
@REBEL Pakistan got created because Muslims league won 75% of Muslim votes directly for partition democratically. We have already been transformed and transformed the subcontinent forever.
Will democracy really help us ? Will it win back kashmir ? We keep using the word 'democracy' as if it will solve our problems.
A mature article.
@Iftikhar Khan so sad that our politicians would do anything to get into power no matter what happens to the country.
This article clearly demonstrates that the democrats do not value the power of democracy as they are in hurry to drag the chair holder by any means whether from disguised help of conspirators( according to N league ) or by mob. These all sort of attempts undermine the dignity of democracy and should be refrained in indulging such practice for the sake of democratic norms in country and confront political rivals in the field,commonly known as general elections.
@guest so why have elections just let the courts choose the best man!!!!
i really admire your different point of view it keeps my confirmation bias in check but how "If they can get the prime minister" who are they ? Such a long shot in estimating abilities of "THEM". From leading of Panama papers until case going through due process...and managing it perfectly...It makes your in same lot of people who talks about Malala and conspiracy theories
For a common man like me, it is as simple as this: If Nawaz gets disqualified, PMLN should bring in another PM and go into elections in 2018,,, we have a democratic transition there. Why our democracy is so fragile ? why is everything a conspiracy against it ? In this one as well as the previous write-up, the writer completely ignored the fact that something known as Panama Papers did not come from boys! His equations has only two variable, Politicians and Boys, whereas we have Judiciary, media and external factors as well. I do not think democracy means no questions asked or answered for five years, it does not happen anywhere in the world.
@REBEL Where is transformation without transition. Democracy is always good for the people but mat not be good for a few powerful groups.
democracy needs to be strengthened . all politicians are corrupt punish them ask them to return all money to govt but democracy cannot be sacrificed . the alternatives are worse. cyril is very intelligent and his style awesome
@al That's the issue with today's electorate albeit a minority, that they have no idea what happens behind the scene. They think SC is beyond impregnable. SC cannot overturn democracy they at best can disqualify a PM which is exactly why it is being used now. "They" have tried everything dharnas, dawn leaks etc but cant topple the PM. So this is the only inevitable way left to oust a PM legally. Gillani was a different case he was expendable even by his party. But this time head of the biggest party which happens to be a PM is being disqualified. Ramifications of this will be unthinkable as even if IK managed to become a PM he will not be spared by N and 90s politics will be back. Hope sanity prevails in SC and it isnt allowed to carry someone's baggage forever.
@tochibawa My view is opposite. It's a politically correct analysis, far from reaility
@REBEL Does transformation only take place through ML?
Nonsense. All the repeated follies and corruptions of politicians are ignored and pardoned in the name of democracy, and blame transferred to BOYS. Absolute nonsense.
democracy needs to be strengthened . all politicians are corrupt punish them ask them to return all money to govt but democracy cannot be sacrificed . the alternatives are worse. cyril is very intelligent and his style is awesome
@al - Spot on...that's the real point...summed up in few words. I hope the writer gets it.
Only persistent collective will of people of Pakistan can change marshal mindset.
Skillful misdirection.......democracy does not begin or end with an election, if it fails to deliver for the people its not democracy, so defending such a democracy is suspect.
It sounds like the author is proposing that Nawaz and his league, and democracy in Pakistan as synonymous words and sentences. Democracy will survive and thrive in Pakistan as long as people can be made more aware and knowledgeable about their country and leaders. Honest Judiciary and Press are playing this role in the process.
@Liaqat - Totally agree.
"You win, you stay — full term, no funny business"
Yup get elected by any means and then stay the full term and do whatever corruption you want. Is this the democracy both PPP and PMLN agreed to. Well now we know why. Both of them have looted and plundered Pakistan for last three decades. No thanks. I don't need this flawed democracy. If they can impeach Nixon mid term then we can damn well impeach Nawaz Sharif mid term as well.
People choose, but individuals, even the prime minister is an individual, are answerable to institutions. This is exactly what is going on right now, this is the highest form of democracy.
People choose, but individuals, even the prime minister is an individual, are answerable to institutions. This is exactly what is going on right now, this is the highest form of democracy.
@Dr. Malek Towghi (Baloch) well said Sir!
@Imad Qureshi
Agreed!
Democracy is not just an electoral game, but of all civil institutions functioning fairly. Because of our subservient culture, democracy has been corrupted by a culture of political dynasties. Hopefully we now grow out of this phase.
Some times things looks planned but they are not. Things happened at random or they bound to happened, predetermined. It looks to us that any particular consequences help one party and harmed the other but it just happened. We always analyse retrospectively where we have the cusion to rationalise the trail of the things. We need to keep checking this our very human tendency while observing and reaching conclusions.
It is obvious that people of pakistan , or at least its middle-class, are viscerally opposed to such a deeply flawed democratic system. The 'ruling family' cannot explain even part of its assets and the circumstantial evidence points to money laundering at the very least. These rulers will never put their ill-gotten wealth at stake for the system , the so-called democracy. In any other sane country, these folks would have pulled out from the roots in every sense of the word - never allowed to infiltrate the system again or have wealth to influence or game the system.
I would respectfully disagree with Cyril here. The beauty of democracy is accountability. It is one of the main reasons what sets democracy apart from monarchy and dictatorship. If Nawaz is declared corrupt by the SC, it not only strengthens our democracy, it also strengthens the Supreme Court of Pakistan. With a strong SC, and a precedent of accountability, the democracy of this country will get stronger at an exponential rate. We are witnessing the evolution of democracy. Rejoice!
My recollection is that it was not an understanding between BB and NS. It was the USA laying out clearly that there will be no aid or money flowing in if democratic elected government's are trampled. Result - the first ever peaceful transfer of power in Pakistan.
@al Supreme court cant disqualify Nawaz when there is no crime. This is far from over. The entire episode is ugly. Learn some law. NS is not going any where with out some dramatic changes.
@lafanga What corruption of this Govt is under investigation ? From this term or from past ? All the crap is about their personal business. Nothing will happen.
Looks like we're going to have again "the Managed Democracy". A rotten apple is better than "no apple."
India has democracy, USA has democracy, UK has one too. Come to think of it, even Kashmir has one but we?
"When we fight they win." I guess the corollary of that statement would be When They Fight you win.
@REBEL .... Well. Will you be leading the revolution?
@Syed F. Hussaini ....... " Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want; and they deserve to get it good and hard." H L Mencken In Pakistan democracy is not about who you vote for, it's about who you pay off to get what you want.
@Hassan .... and protects you from enemies domestic and foreign, etc, etc.
@Dasti ..... There is no basis for the idea of predestination in science. It is an ego driven idea that has been discarded philosophical thinkers for decades.
@dost mohammed ........... Not without individual courage.
We need progressive politics... Two alternating ruling families is not progressive!
Cyril is a far sighted having eagle-eyed journalist, who is well aware of our past history. To understand him is not easy. I sometimes get amazed the way he thinks and writes. Really superb.