The high tide of consumer spending at Eid-ul-Fitr lifts almost all boats in Pakistan’s markets.

The size of the Eid premium for a business, however, depends on its relevance to the consumer preference and the success of its strategy in facing competition.

Early in Ramazan a social-media-propelled three-day boycott of fruit vendors, alerted businesses to the power of collective public action even without organisational support.

The spotlight on two leading local brands for the wrong reasons and their prompt response to salvage the image must have alarmed the community. A wide range of people observed that salesmen behaved better this year and brands were more generous in their sale deals.

“We understand the value of public perception for the success of a brand. Our advertisement during the Eid season is high, around 5-10pc of our annual cost.

“Still there is no way to tell if people are imagining things or if businesses actually have an excessive fear a public backlash. Maybe it was stiffer competition or a reflection of growing maturity”, said the CEO of a popular local food chain.

The cash-driven retail business restricts the scope of systematic data gathering and analysis but leading marketing analysts concurred that the biggest slice of the consumer Eid spend was claimed collectively by the food sector, including restaurants and food chains.

Leading analysts believed that collectively food, clothing, accessories and transport claim the major share of the pie

It was followed by clothing: from fabric, tailoring, readymade garments, designers and branded outfits. The next was transport and close on its heels was footwear.

It was followed by accessories, home appliances, furniture, mobiles, wall paints, crockery, consumer durables, cars and motorcycles. The consumption as a percentage of GDP is said to be high 84pc.

It is close to a trillion rupees. The depth and the breadth of the Eid economy in Pakistan is also astonishing. On a closer look it actually turned out to be much wider than the general perception.

Background market research and interaction with analysts revealed that consumers prefer to time home renovation, new car delivery, new mobile phones, shopping of durables and crockery, keeping the biggest Muslim festival in mind.

Transport (road, railways and air) booms as desperate people are willing to pay whatever it takes to unite with their loved ones on Eid. The inclination to celebrate with family and friends mobilise people to travel in big groups inter-city and intra-city.

There is a massive reversal of the trend in the internal movement of labour. At this point the flow is from big cities to small towns as people forced to leave home for jobs head back.

The number of overseas Pakistanis returning home for Eid depends on multiple factors but is significantly higher than at any other time of the year.

The biggest chunk of the consumer Eid spend, however, lands in the pockets of businesses dealing in food items.

From groceries, vegetables, fruits, meat, confectionaries and sweetmeats, business is brisk. New ready to cook and ready to eat brands are launched and enjoy better prospects of take-off at this time while populous Pakistan focuses on the kitchen and dining.

“From where I am positioned I can tell that food spend increases around Eid, though for me separating Eid from Ramazan when viewing consumer behaviour is difficult.

“All super markets and mega stores increase their inventory of food related items before Ramazan” a former employee of a leading marketing research firm commented.

Quratul Ain Ibrahim, Managing Director Nielsen, another research company, saw the value of understanding multiple dimensions of money during Eid festival.

For a better insight she said they might initiate a survey based study. “I am surprised at the scale but if the spending is actually so high in Ramazan and Eid it merits a proper study”, she responded over phone from Lahore.

Textile tycoons contested the view that festival spending was higher in 2017 compared to a year before. “This is just a perception. The fact is that there is persistent erosion in the purchasing power of people as both job creating sectors— manufacturing and agriculture — did not perform well.

“Not sure for others but for us the return on high investment we made is minimal. I move in business circles, people who are anxious and not happy as exports are falling and external sector vulnerability is high”, a leading businessman who heads a major group told Dawn.

An observation of the demography of spenders this year showed that the mix changes with the social class.

At the lower end of the social spectrum men often shop for the family. In the middle income group women hold the purse strings whereas in the upper segments in urban Pakistan the approach is generally gender neutral.

The online shopping trend deepened further in 2017 with teens and young professionals switching to the mode for convenience.

A businessman reached for comment over phone said Eid in Pakistan brings joy for regional economies eager to make inroads in a populous country where propensity to consume is high.

“Besides local manufacturers and service providers, foreign companies command about 20pc of the Eid economy collectively, under Chinese lead”.

According to an assessment this year, China enjoyed as much as 17pc of the market share. The remaining 3pc was shared by all others jointly.

China dominated in children’s wear, shoes and toys. India enjoys a good market of artificial ornaments and shared cosmetic sales with China.

Indonesia, Malaysia and even Bangladesh cut a share in readymade garments for men and children. In toiletries, the local market was dominated by MNCs. Cheaper Chinese counterfeit products catered to a certain market segment.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, July 3rd, 2017