ODDLY, Jeremy Corbyn, the runner-up in the recent general election in the UK, has a spring in his step; Theresa May, on the other hand, looks and sounds like a loser despite her party winning the biggest number of seats and votes.
This difference in body language is largely due to misplaced expectations: while most polling organisations as well as the media and pundits had predicted a landslide for the ruling Conservative party and a mauling for Labour, the results turned out to be very different. After losing 12 seats, May no longer has a majority in Parliament, whereas Corbyn has defied virtually all forecasts by gaining 29. His position in his party is now unassailable, while May is on shaky ground after calling an unnecessary snap election two years before it was due.
According to her, she had taken this unexpected decision in order to get a strong mandate before the Brexit negotiations that are due to start next week. The real reason, apart from wanting her own mandate, however, seems to have been the perception of a shambolic Labour Party under an inexperienced, hard-left Jeremy Corbyn. When she announced the snap election seven weeks ago, polls showed the Conservatives to be 20pc ahead.
These polling numbers seemed to indicate a Tory majority of around 150, and assured May the sole authority to conduct the Brexit talks on her own terms. Her problem has been that with her party’s wafer-thin majority in the previous parliament, she was susceptible to pressure from extreme Brexit supporters in her party. These are the people who forced David Cameron to call for a referendum in the first place, and were clamouring for a “hard Brexit” that would restrict the free movement of EU citizen, thus limiting the UK’s access to the European single market.
But a hung parliament has greatly weakened May’s negotiating position, apart from drastically undercutting her authority as prime minister. Despite her humiliating failure to secure a majority, May is hanging on to power. To do so, she has secured the cooperation of the Democratic Unionist Party, a sectarian, right-wing party established in Northern Ireland to counter Catholic separatists in the early Seventies. The DPU has 10 seats, and is thus in a position to play the kingmaker.
However, even though she might have the numbers — but only just —May is a much diminished figure. A measure of her weakness is the fact that she has been forced to confirm the portfolios of the top five figures in her cabinet. Had she won the majority she sought, all indications were that she would have ordered a major reshuffle. Now, she cannot afford to alienate senior Tories who could well turn around and ask her why she’s still in office.
So what went wrong for her? Firstly, she had become highly dependent on a small kitchen cabinet led by her two top unelected co-chiefs of staff, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill. The former drafted the controversial Conservative manifesto that contained no costs for the proposals it contained. More seriously, it had a provision for elderly care that had to be junked halfway into the campaign. With May refusing to admit to a U-turn, the public spotted the inflexibility in her, and this seriously eroded her claim to “strong and stable” leadership. Both advisers have resigned, thus heading off a leadership challenge to their erstwhile boss. But this remains a real possibility, and could come within the next week or two.
Another glaring error that came to haunt her was her refusal to join the TV debate for party leaders organised by the BBC. This was widely perceived to reflect doubt in her ability to face other politicians in a live debate. Leader after leader mocked her absence from the stage. Finally, her personalisation of the election campaign alienated many senior members of her party, and has focused the blame for a woeful effort entirely on her.
But May’s dismal campaign should not take away from Corbyn’s sparkling performance. He criss-crossed the country by bus and train, unlike May who flew in a private helicopter and jet. And while Corbyn addressed large rallies of enthusiastic supporters, May’s small audiences consisted mostly of selected party members. The contrast between a popular leader and an elitist politician could not have been greater.
Ultimately, what made the difference was the high turnout of newly registered young voters. A major part of the Labour strategy was to involve the youth in its attempt to change the status quo. In the event, 72pc of those between 18 and 25 turned out as against the national average of 68pc. Thus, while the Conservatives hit their target of 43pc of the votes, they were denied a parliamentary majority by Labour’s 40pc.
One big loser was Ukip, the party that has campaigned for Brexit for many years. Now, with its mission accomplished, it had little more to offer, and has suffered a huge drop in support. The Scottish National Party saw its number of seats fall sharply, and while it still retains its majority in the Scottish assembly, the prospects of another referendum on independence are further away than ever.
The election also revealed the fault lines in British politics and society, apart from signalling a return to a two-party system. The north-south divide is apparent in the electoral map of Britain, with the south a sea of Tory blue with the odd splash of Labour red. London and the north-west are nearly solid red. Then there is the split between the old and the young, with the 60-plus age group tending to vote Conservative, while the young mostly support Labour.
While attention in the UK has been transfixed by the election, the clock on Brexit has been ticking away, even though the subject was barely discussed in the campaign. Soon, however, there will be a reality check in Brussels where negotiators are ready and waiting. How a weakened government led by May will fare in these talks will determine Britain’s future.
Published in Dawn, June 12th, 2017
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