Technological disruption, urbanisation, premature shrinkage of the manufacturing sector — especially in the labour-intensive textile segment — and allied factors have exposed capacity constraints and planning deficits in the national job market. In the bliss of statistical darkness, both federal and provincial governments continue to accommodate their lackeys without doing much for the rest of those seeking employment. The perception of mismatch and lack of premium on the once-worthy triangle of merit, skill and output in the labour market have left individuals and families insecure and frustrated. Brexit and Trump’s victory in the United States last year clearly underlined the value of jobs in the people’s list of priorities. In the run-up to the next elections, it would be apt to assess the situation and gauge...

The informal survey conducted for this report reaffirmed that the unemployment rate in Pakistan is certainly higher than the officially declared 5.9pc. The misallocation of human resources appears to be rampant as the State, despite being under democratic dispensation, seems to treat people as a liability rather than an asset.

Read more: Employment: Grumbles never stop in Punjab

There is enough evidence to suggest that beyond political rhetoric, the government has never seriously tried to understand the issue and is, therefore, clueless about its intensity and growing complexities within the multi-layered labour market in the country.

The free market argument forwarded by the apologists can’t absolve the government of the responsibility of creating an environment for gainfully engaging maximum number of people in the economic mainstream to capitalise on their potential for the larger good of society.

In this report, the team of Dawn Business gleans through data and seeks opinion of stakeholders to identify trends and bust myths surrounding the issue

According to findings, the government appears to be the single largest and the most preferred employer, but despite its overblown size, it absorbs a small fraction of the millions who enter job market every year. The uncertain fortunes of agriculture sector and the stagnant base of manufacturing mean that the services sector has been the real job spinner in the country. The vacancies in the corporate sector that offers structured career path and better salaries are limited.

According to our survey, retail, marketing, transport, IT, accounting and mid-level management are the services with highest employment-generating potential at the moment in the mammoth informal economy of the country. Health and education follow closely.

Also read: Employment: A pall of gloom in Sindh

In urban Pakistan, educated youth aspires for rewarding jobs but, failing to find one, many today move towards entrepreneurship. The low rate of success among start-ups and difficulties posed by access to capital have not been able to hold back the enterprising lot to bet on innovative ideas and the market depth in a transforming country where aspirations, preferences and lifestyles have been changing fast.

The government officials boasted of the Benazir Income Support Programme when questions were raised about the elitist orientation of policies. They quoted higher BISP budget to hammer home PML-N’s pro-people credentials. It appears, though, that the petty cash transfers to the poor served the rulers more than the target beneficiaries. The miniscule stipends failed to provide people a sustainable source of income, but buys a negligent government a ‘caring image’ on public expense without much ado. It was observed by the team of reporters who interacted with the poor that people in need can’t afford to refuse help but they crave for a job; a chance to work their way up.

Also see: Employment: It’s better but not good in KP

In transformational Pakistan with massive youth bulge where multiple, often conflicting, trends persist and the economic growth is both slow and not sufficiently inclusive, guaranteeing a suitable job for everyone is too big a challenge for the government to surmount on its own.

The private sector, elected representatives, workers’ bodies, educational institutions, families and the civic bodies will need to work in tandem to evolve systems of monitoring, assessment and gainful recruitment of people entering the market.

It is, however, the duty of the government to provide realistic data and a platform for consultation amongst the stakeholders. It can draw from systems operative in Nordic social welfare states to monitor labour demand and supply, and address mismatches.

Read more: Employment: It’s all about the government in Balochistan

Some labour economists mentioned the CPEC story which they said was ‘compelling’, as things seem to be moving after a prolonged phase of stagnation. Will owning the ‘Belt and Road’ vision lock a linear upward growth trajectory for Pakistan? Possibly. But the decider might be the CPEC’s employment effect in Pakistan. If dividends translate into greater job opportunities for people, there will be no turning back for sure.

But that is for the future. Right now, whatever little the federal and provincial governments are doing in the name of human resource management can best be described as shooting in the dark. “Confusion is the name of the game as far unemployment rate is concerned and the word ‘chaos’ best describes the job market,” commented one observer.

The team had difficulty locating trends on the employment map. The data blackout is near complete with some flickers of light here and there. When general aggregates are hard to find, identifying complex trends or deducing sub-national, gender and other dimensions become impossible.

Read more: Human resources an asset, not a liability, insists Ahsan

Despite the Business team’s efforts, the information gathered is patchy and analysis unsatisfactory. Frankly, we were unable to describe even the broad contours of the labour market or to project a spectrum of choices and possible careers for those out in the market seeking jobs.

The Labour Force Survey, a huge exercise conducted by the Federal Bureau of Statistics every two years, pools a lot of data. The sample area is wide and it covers 47,000 respondents. The results seem to misleading. For instance, 5.9pc rate of unemployment, high employment in age bracket of 65years and above, greater employment in old women compared to men, highest unemployment in the age band of 15-19 for boys. The list goes on.

There is no credible pool of information on demand and supply of workforce let alone finer details. The employment exchanges that were partially functional in 1970s and early ’80s died a quiet death.

Also see: Unemployment: Rhetoric beats action in the political arena

As a policy, the government encourages people to work abroad. It was found that the brain drain is highest in skilled manpower that includes tech heads, doctors, engineers, electricians and plumbers. The public investment in vocational training institutions in Pakistan serves the requirements of Middle Eastern and other regional economies more than the local one.

The aspiration of people to be gainfully employed is perfectly fair. The Constitution of Pakistan recognises it as an inalienable right of every able-bodied adult to play his part in the economic mainstream of the country according to his capability in return for a salary to afford a decent life for self and the family.

Widespread unemployment, therefore, is a government failure. At the macro level it compromises the country’s growth and development potential by underutilising its precious human resources. At the micro level it translates into economic, social and psychological distress not just for the jobless person, but also the family.

Be it CPEC, industrial, commercial or any other policy or project, the government tends to ignore the employment dimension.

Read this next: From unemployment to self-employment

Recognising the fact that even at the best of times there would always be some percentage of population that could not be absorbed in the economic mainstream because of some combination of factors, such as denationalisation or technological disruption, the State needs to build some institution to retain excess workforce and a system to retrain it in needed skills to make it employable again.

Published in Dawn, May 14th, 2017