Dear reader, online ads enable us to deliver the journalism you value. Please support us by taking a moment to
THERE’S consensus: they pulled back from the brink. Sanity prevailed, democracy has been strengthened. We should all be grateful.
So let’s try another version.
Nawaz missed an opportunity, the prime minister has been weakened, democracy may be in trouble and we should all be a little worried about the chief.
Nawaz seems stuck in the same gear — he has a vision and he’ll somehow get to that vision by never reacting to the bad stuff, internally or externally.
The tweet was a rookie’s error, fired off in haste; a chief seemingly out of his depth. Even as it ricocheted around the world, the question was obvious: after rejection, what?
Trite, but true — a crisis is also an opportunity. Out of nowhere, the boys had put themselves in a situation where they’d come under pressure to reaffirm their support for democracy.
Outside the howling sections of the media and the opportunist political lot, there’s a serious world. That world — Pakistan’s partners abroad, influential sectors at home — doesn’t want a coup.
And you can bet all of them, especially the foreign lot, swung into action and counselled restraint. That was Nawaz’s opportunity.
He doesn’t need the boys’ affirmation of democracy; he already knows they can’t — won’t — take over just now. What Nawaz needs is policy space, a seat at the table and the boys willing to listen to him.
The bargain was obvious: work to placate a chief who had come under instant pressure from multiple constituencies and use that goodwill for policy input later.
Instead, Nawaz chose quiet defiance.
Through friends and allies, he let it be known that what was done was done, he had no interest in reopening the notification matter and that if the boys really wanted, they could chuck him out.
It was a wasted moment.
Give the other chap a PR win, if you can get a policy win. The whole mess started because Nawaz wanted a voice in the policy debate again, to give his trade and regional connectivity agenda a shot over the old ways of militarised national security.
Fast forward seven months and the regional dynamic is worse. For reasons internal and external, the trade/regional connectivity agenda is on pause.
The north-south corridor — CPEC — may be in full swing, but the one that the civilians crave, connectivity along the east-west axis, isn’t going anywhere.
Kabul is disillusioned and seems to have lost interest, while Delhi is in an aggressive mood that makes any kind of dialogue difficult.
That’s the second failure of Nawaz. He doesn’t seem to have realised that troubled times regionally are as much an opportunity for gaining space internally than promising times.
Gen, I see what Kabul and Delhi are up to and here’s how I think we, the two of us together, can get them to behave better.
If that annoys Kabul and Delhi, all the better — you burnish your credentials at home with the boys, possibly making them a little less suspicious of you and your motives.
Instead, Nawaz seems stuck in the same gear — he has a vision and he’ll somehow get to that vision by never reacting to the bad stuff, internally or externally.
So the boys wallop him over the head at home and the new Nawaz doesn’t react; do what you will seems to be his new mantra.
It’s better than old Nawaz, who would have plotted revenge and maybe the chief’s ouster, but it still doesn’t get him any closer to what he really wants.
The policy agenda, a seat at the table — it will never be as simple as being gracious to the other side trapped in a situation of its own making.
But it was a sudden, unexpected opening. That opening may be gone.
Civilian incompetence or lack of alacrity though doesn’t by itself endanger democracy. The danger comes from the other side.
Gracious words, nearly unprecedented words, a ringing endorsement of democratic form at least — Bajwa has won praise for defusing a crisis.
Problem is, he’s getting praise for doing the right thing only because he first did the wrong thing.
For folk with an eye on instability, Bajwa has already revealed two troubling flaws: he may not know what he’s doing — devastating in and of itself — and he may not know how to resist pressure.
The tweet was an instant error, almost Musharrafian in its execution and proportions.
The N-League may have been sly or incompetent in trying to wriggle away with doing less than it had agreed to with a watered-down notification.
But the gap between the notification as issued and as agreed with the boys was small enough to file it away for future reference — a reminder that Nawaz will play games.
What it wasn’t worth was a crisis. Especially one in which the next move was not apparent and that exposed the chief to a torrent of criticism from all sides.
Once closure had been agreed to — clear since the day a consensus was reached in the inquiry — the next move should have been obvious:
Brace yourself for a bit of backlash; try and muzzle the pro-Raheel lot that had been on the rampage for months; and hunker down for games that Nawaz may play.
Since none of that was done, the tweet error happened. And the chief left himself with no good options.
If it was just rashness, be afraid. If it was the result of a chief unable to resist pressure, be very afraid.
Once upon a time, to go back to the Musharrafian analogy, the months between June 4 and Oct 12 too had seemed like democracy had won.
Maybe it’s better if we stick to the consensus view. Democracy has been saved.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, May 14th, 2017
Comments (42) Closed
Wow. .. I think government should read this article., However it certainly seems that PM is in charge and has won the round comprehensively. But to corner a real tiger a good strategy? Only time will tell...
I am a fan but this article is a bit confusing to be honest.
He has a vision? Seriously? Nawaz and vision? Two things poles apart!
Master class. Be safe, brother!
lovely as always analysis and satire at the same . cyril you are great stuff . God bless you .
Out of box brilliant analysis.
Yes, he 'seems stuck in the same gear' its and ego problem .
You sir - are the bravest journalist I know. You speak it as it is. I wish you health, safety and luck in your career. I may sound selfish and greedy - but please do consider immigrating to India. Your standard of journalism is needed in India
how can PM function when all the time he is taking guard
@anees zed "Nawaz and vision? Two things poles apart!" People to people contacts, MFN, trade, business, travel, slight concessions and normalization. That's been Nawaz's vision all along. But the one who matter, the ones who keep cutting off the nose to spite the face will never go along. And its good from India's perspective, this trajectory.
Monarchy empowered...democracy weakened.
An article 6 candidate still enjoys freedom of writing is deploring.
"Once closure had been agreed to — clear since the day a consensus was reached in the inquiry — the next move should have been obvious:"
So a closure was indeed agreed without catching the real culprit.
"If it was just rashness, be afraid. If it was the result of a chief unable to resist pressure, be very afraid." I'd put it as an attitude of 'I-don't-care-for-the-consequences-of-my-actions.' Advice: be panicked.
@anees zed you read a heading and never read it completely. pitty
It's a simple case of backstage, front-stage in Goffmanian terms, what is apparent in the backstage, military supremacy in political affairs sometimes through unintentional slips comes to the front-stage where the drama is being enacted. Every one knows the military calls the shots they just dont expect the military admitting it via a tweet.
Cyril,
You will do a great favour to the world if you write a book about Power and how to wield it. Machiavelli and Chankiya, though good and timeless need a reinterpretation in the modern context.
I'll be your first customer.
Sir CYRIL you are magician writer , Salam to your personalty and bravery. carry on with honesty . I am your fan
Nawaz is a visionary businessman for sure.
For those who believe it is democracy, it is saved.
Others wait for it.
It won't come via OBOR, for sure.
Only the alternate route can cater to the cravings.
Thanks.
Nawaz knows best to hold on to his post, because there is lot of money to be made before next elections. He wants a way to chug along, do not embarass the Chief , win some good will, win next elections.
Brilliant like always.
@Sameer You don't know how monarchy looks like brother....
Here we go.The person who is the center of all this hassle is telling us how it should have been handled.It's like I throw a rock on you and hit you and then say that you should have dodged it by jumping to the side.
@anees zed
How about a borrowed or imposed vision?
I make a comment and it's almost always never published. So much so for the champions of freedom of expression
Why are we not addressing the elephant in the room? Let's quit heaping fake praise on the General and admit that Nawaz has taken the Zardari doctrine to heart (finally) and he now has his Kayani. I cannot imagine the 90s era Nawaz surviving the perfect storm that was created/happened/whatever. Honestly, I am beginning to appreciate this politial renaissance that's suddenly happened with our kings and king makers. Plus, the stakes are so high for the army now that any sort of 'derailment' that has any chance of disturbing anything from Bahria to CPEC is a strict no-no. So that keeps the derailment brigade in check, because at the end we all are just trying to reach our dreams.
This article makes no sense to me. Only instigating the two sides for next show down.
How interesting, nay ironic, some keep staying relevant for absolutely wrong reasons. In the name of democracy, rather saving this politically corrupted social religion, it is freedom without responsibilities. How long it can go like this, only time will tell or more appropriately 'partners abroad' b/c nothing counts at home.
Nawaz Shrief’s current strategy, in his third term, to hold back his public reaction, for fear of unnecessarily stirring the hornets’ nest, is an “interesting” improvement. Holding off judgment and displaying patience is a virtue. It is hard to imagine being the elected chief executive of the nation, yet seeking a “seat on the table” from another chief, who is appointed by you and supposed to be your subordinate by the Constitution. How do you cope with it? The nation’s opportunist political landscape is not helpful. The corridors of power has funniest of the set ups. Especially in Pakistan! One day, the national chain of command will work right, in practice as well. Hope that day of maturity arrives soon. Thank you Cyril Almeida for presenting an interesting insightful alternate view.
Another excellent analysis from genius Cyril. He is he best to understand internal developments and ink it his own unique way. Kudos
You really give govt too much credit that they can come up with something visionary or even commonsensical. When majority are in the business of money making far sightedness only reaches as far as getting the next generation in place. The opportunity for gaining ground on neighbourly issues can only be seen as an opportunity if one even possesses that lens. When the lens is of a tunnel vision where the family has to be secured and fortunes further enhanced then even a dozen opportunities will fail. You miss the point as to why the boys are so popular as an option...even after Mush's disastrous 9 years. Its only because these democracy types are just plain worse.
@Shahid however long it has to.
Cyril is an outstanding writer and political analyst, however, he doesn't have much political experience. Sharif is a seasoned politician and knows the consequence of messing up with boys. He acted shrewdly and saved the democracy.
Brainy stuff. I think one reason behind a lack of mature attitude and whimsical decisions by all and sundry is lack of space for learning in our stifling environment that discourages open mindedness, and free discourse. Other reason being a nation of impatient people?
The depth and insight is remarakable. Nawaz missed an opportunity of a Life Time to assert civilian control of Foreign Policy.
What point you want to bring home ? Article isnt clearly written....
Cyril, a journalist made out of steel ! Superb detailed write-up.
@anees zed No you are wrong . He has a vision to have all the wealth of the nation in his pocket.
Confusing and not very clearly written, sometimes one needs to be direct and to the point instead of making angled approach. You are a theorist sir, real politik is a different game and that is what Nawaz did.
My understanding of consensus ..Under the absolute sway of an individual despot the body was attacked in order to subdue the soul, and the soul escaped the blows which were directed against it and rose superior to the attempt; but such is not the course adopted by tyranny in democratic republics; there the body is left free, and the soul is enslaved.
This all wouldn't have happened, if you were to remain honest in performing your duties