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WITH just a month to go for the general elections on June 8, the Conservatives have taken a major step to victory by racking up significant gains in the local council polls held last week. By adding 554 council seats, they have left Labour, with 321 seats lost, trailing far behind. The turnout was as low as 20pc in some councils, perhaps reflecting the election-fatigue many Brits are suffering from with the last general elections in 2015, the Brexit referendum in 2016 and now another general election looming in June.
Nevertheless, the local council polls showed that Theresa May has judged the timing of the snap election she called out of the blue very well. Although Labour is trying to introduce other issues into the discourse, the Conservatives are hammering away at Brexit, arguing that only they, with May as prime minister, can conduct successful negotiations with Brussels to get the UK the best deal possible.
May was helped in this by her recent encounter with a EU delegation led by Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission’s president. Over dinner at 10 Downing Street, the PM’s official residence, there was a heated exchange that was leaked to the German press. Although earlier denying this as ‘Brussels gossip’, May soon went on the offensive, and in a stirringly patriotic broadside, asked for a strong mandate so she could meet the perceived bullying from Brussels. This stance cast her in the role of Boudicca, an ancient British queen who stood up to the Romans 2,000 years ago. Clearly, this resounded strongly with the electorate who have responded by supporting Conservative candidates across the country.
Labour under Jeremy Corbyn has struggled to respond to this wave of nationalistic fervour. By portraying herself as a strong leader facing the European juggernaut, May has evoked memories of previous wars fought against foes from the mainland. Corbyn, on the other hand, has argued for a ‘soft’ Brexit in which the free movement of people continues unhindered. This is a sure vote-loser in a country that voted for Brexit because of its fears and doubts about unrestricted immigration from European members of the EU. In 2015, Labour lost voters to both Ukip and the Tories because of its stand on immigration. Since then, many senior Labour members have been pleading with their leader to modify his stance.
One party to have been virtually wiped out in the local council elections is Ukip that has seen its councillors being reduced to just one out of the 120 seats it won the last time. Clearly, voters don’t see the point of a party that has long advocated an exit from the EU: now that it has achieved its objective, it no longer has a relevant agenda. Most of its supporters have switched to the Conservative camp as they feel this is the party that will actually deliver on Brexit.
If the local council elections were in fact a dress rehearsal for the general elections next month, the results are very bad news for Labour. Every opinion poll had already indicated a huge swing for the Tories in a House of Commons where they had a slim majority of 17. Now, projections indicate that this majority may rise by as many as 85 seats, giving May total control. Her hard-line backbenchers who were pushing for a ‘hard’ Brexit will now have to hold their peace. All indications are that May’s gamble to hold early elections will pay off handsomely, and she will repeat the landslides Margaret Thatcher pulled off in 1983 and 1987.
A defeat of this magnitude will spell the utter eclipse of Labour. In these circumstances, most party leaders would be forced into a humiliating resignation. But Corbyn is being sustained by large numbers of young left-wing supporters who are excited by his socialistic agenda and pacifist policies. His inability to sell his views to mainstream British voters does not appear to reduce his support from the youthful Labour hard core believers.
Given this imbalance of electoral power, it would appear that the Conservatives will enjoy a majority for the foreseeable future. Naturally, Tories are delighted by the fact that Corbyn is doing much of their work for them, and as long as he is the Labour leader, they see no threat to their hold on power. For them, Brexit is an opportunity to play the patriotic card, and gain an overwhelming majority in the next parliament.
The right-wing media is ecstatic at the prospects of a virtually permanent Tory lock on power. But single-party rule could be bad news for a country with a long history of an effective opposition. By surrendering this role, Labour is doing Britain a disservice at a time it should be holding the government to account for the Brexit negotiations, as well as its pro-American foreign policy.
Already Boris Johnson, the buffoonish foreign secretary, has advocated attacking Syria if Britain is asked to do so by Trump — with or without parliament’s approval and a UN mandate. If the Tories get the majority the polls are indicating they will, May will be free to drag Britain into yet another Middle East conflict.
Despite its huge lead in the polls, May is preaching caution to her supporters, pointing out how earlier projections in 2015 as well as in the Brexit referendum were proved wrong. Basically, she is warning against complacency as she fears that many Tory voters might not turn out on election day as they are sure their party will win. But these scare tactics don’t obscure the reality of an impending Conservative landslide.
Published in Dawn, May 8th, 2017
