THERESA May’s surprise announcement of a general election on June 8 had the impact of a hand grenade thrown into a library. After her repeated promises of not calling a snap election until the Brexit talks were over two years from now, she wrong-footed the entire country. According to the British PM, she made up her mind over Easter when she was on a walking holiday with her husband, Phillip.

As a result of all the secrecy surrounding the announcement, she has come in for a lot of flak for not sticking to her pledge. But what changed her mind? Her stated reason is that a strong mandate would silence her critics in parliament, and give her a stronger hand to negotiate the terms of Brexit from the European Union. These talks promise to be tough and prolonged, so May claims she needed her European interlocutors to know that she had a large majority of the British people behind her. Also, she probably craves her own mandate.

More cynical observers are of the view, however, that with a 20-point lead over Labour, the Conservatives are in an ideal position to win a significantly larger share of seats in parliament. Currently, with 330 seats, May commands a slim majority of 17. But if the current opinion polls hold up till June 8, the Tories have a good chance to pick up dozens more, thereby decimating Labour. Also, fresh elections will probably reduce the influence Brexit-supporting Conservatives currently wield.

While May wants to make Brexit the single-point agenda in the next elections, Labour is determined to broaden the discourse to include health care, education and the social services — all areas that have been gutted by budgetary cuts imposed by the coalition, and then the Tory government these last seven years. In a rousing opening salvo, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn unleashed a powerful argument for a more equitable Britain. Insisting that Britain should be for “the people, not the powerful”, he denounced the “cosy cartels” that had been ruling the country for years.

It remains to be seen if his unvarnished socialist message will find much traction in an era that has seen corporate culture become the increasingly dominant force in politics and society. But Brits seem to be tired of the incessant Brexit debate, and may be receptive to the idea that a general election should address more pressing public needs. Indeed, the initial reaction to Theresa May’s bombshell was: “What? Not again!” Over the last two years, starting with the general election of 2015, to last year’s highly divisive Brexit referendum, the country has been in election mode. The prospect of yet another election fills few with any excitement.

The possible exception is perhaps Jeremy Corbyn who seems to be in his own element addressing enthusiastic supporters. He has a spring in his step that is missing when he is in the more formal environment of the tradition-bound Parliament House. As he rallies his troops, he seems to forget that the people he has to convince have little confidence in his leadership skills. Indeed, poll after poll has shown Corbyn to be trailing far behind May on this crucial factor.

One party that hopes to expand its presence in parliament are the Social Democrats who were reduced to a mere eight seats after the 2015 elections. This was the price they paid for going into coalition with David Cameron. But now, they are seeking resurrection by maintaining their anti-Brexit stance; this should play well in the constituencies where a majority voted to remain.

However, another party is fighting for survival: Ukip, the party that forced the referendum through a long and lonely struggle, now finds itself without an agenda left to attract voters with. It is widely expected that a large number of Ukip supporters will vote Tory in June.

The snap election is another opportunity for the Scottish National Party to renew and reinforce its demand for another referendum over independence. Although it lost the last one, its leader, the formidable Nicola Sturgeon, claims that because Scotland had voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU in the referendum, it should not now be dragged out against its will. This makes a new referendum mandatory, according to the SNP leader. So one of the unintended consequences of Brexit was to free the genie of Scottish independence; the elections will just give Sturgeon another opportunity to hammer this point home with the British government and her constituency.

The call for a snap election has caught everybody — including the ruling Tories — by surprise. Party leaders are scrambling to put together manifestoes, while constituency party leaders are going through applications to select their candidates. In the UK, local party machines pick candidates, not national party leaders.

Theresa May has calculated that Labour is in disarray under a maverick leader who is the butt of jokes among the ruling elites, so the Conservatives will get a substantially larger share of the vote. But elections have a funny way of surprising us. If nothing else, the 2015 general elections showed how unreliable opinion polls can be: where they had predicted a hung parliament, in actual fact the Conservatives won a surprise majority. And in the Brexit referendum, even its architect, Nigel Farage, thought his side would lose just a day before the vote as the polls had shown Remain to be ahead.

The US presidential election, too, has lessons for political pundits and forecasters. Hillary Clinton was expected to win comfortably. But in the event, despite polling nearly three million more votes than her rival, she lost the electoral college, and hence the presidency.

So although May is currently far ahead, seven weeks can be an eternity in politics, and much can change. The Conservatives might yet come to rue their leader’s hubris and haste.

irfan.husain@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, April 24th, 2017