9
JUST a few months ago, Pakistan was facing the prospect of international isolation. India had scuttled the Saarc summit, and the world was slamming Pakistan for its terrorism record. Only Beijing was willing to stand by Islamabad, but it too began to pressure Pakistan to take action against anti-India groups.
Things seem different now. CPEC is proceeding apace. Pakistan and Russia are enjoying a flirtation that flits between joint military exercises, infrastructure investment and facilitating talks with the Afghan Taliban. Former army chief Raheel Sharif is en route to Riyadh to head up the ‘Islamic Nato’, a sign of thawing Pakistan-Gulf Cooperation Council relations following the Yemen snub of 2015. Meanwhile, the current army chief could head to Tehran to ensure Pakistan can sustain its great balancing act in the Middle East. Pakistan successfully hosted the Economic Cooperation Organisation summit last month, and everyone — from the French to the Turks and Iranians — is mulling investment in Pakistan. We have even cheekily invited the US to invest in CPEC.
The growing number of summits, MoUs and high-level meetings can breed complacency. But getting people to turn up at a party you’re hosting is not the same as having meaningful friendships. The coming months will test the maturity, coherence and resilience of Pakistan’s foreign policy. And, as always, one of the key challenges will be posed by our frenemy, the US.
We need to embrace a grander vision of Pakistan.
Pakistan and the US had largely given up on each other. But now mixed messages are emanating from Washington. Last week, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the UN, said Washington would like to play a role in de-escalating Pakistan-India tensions. The statement implied a softening towards Pakistan, which has long called for international involvement in the dispute, contrary to India’s stance that all its issues with Pakistan must be addressed bilaterally.
Simultaneously, a shake-up in Trump’s National Security Council clarified Lt Gen McMaster’s powerful position in this administration and saw the appointment of Lisa Curtis as the senior director for South and Central Asia. McMaster, along with Defence Secretary James Mattis, will continue to view Pakistan through the Afghanistan lens, perceiving Pakistan as a spoiler that supports groups like the Haqqani network that specifically target US troops. Curtis recently co-authored a policy paper with Hussain Haqqani calling for the US to take tougher steps to incentivise Pakistan to crack down on terror.
This follows a recommendation by the top US commander in Afghanistan that Washington conduct a ‘holistic’ review of its ties with Islamabad. All signs point to a tough-on-terror policy towards Pakistan.
Or do they? Lingering contradictions in America’s Afghanistan policy indicate that its approach towards Pakistan will also continue to fluctuate. While offering to sustain or increase troop levels in Afghanistan, Washington has also hinted at its growing support for peace talks with the Afghan Taliban. The US has declined Russia’s invitation to join the latest round of talks, but it is unlikely to completely sit out talks between Afghanistan, Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and other regional players taking place in various configurations with the consensus of facilitating political reconciliation.
US military strikes in Syria, followed by a hasty retreat from committing to greater involvement in that conflict, show that the Trump administration is comfortable with contradictory, capricious and provocative foreign policies. This puts the onus on other countries to have a clear stance towards the US, and know what they’re trying to achieve.
This is not currently the case with Pakistan. We continue to have conflicting strategic priorities with the US in Afghanistan, in the context of US-China relations, and vis-à-vis Iran. But we recognise the need (if not the benefits) of cooperation on issues ranging from Afghanistan to nuclear proliferation. Pakistan seeks to prevent a ‘tilt to India’ on Capitol Hill, and would like to keep military aid flowing. As such, a new way forward is needed.
Pakistan’s current positioning could enable it to become a key global player. Between CPEC and Afghanistan, in a throwback to its historic role, Pakistan could act as a mediator or conduit between Beijing and Washington. And if it plays its Middle East cards right, it could emerge as a credible mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
To play these crucial diplomatic roles, we need to embrace a grander vision of Pakistan that transcends our obsession with our eastern border. We will also need to seriously tackle homegrown militancy that constantly undermines Pakistan’s standing on the global stage. Small-minded thinking by the world’s supposed superpower leaves greater room for big-picture thinking by countries that have previously been dismissed as small players. The question is, do we have it in us to think ‘bigly’?
The writer is a freelance journalist.
Twitter: @humayusuf
Published in Dawn, April 10th, 2017
