ISLAMABAD: After many years, Pakistan is heading towards a major water shortage of up to 35 per cent and would delay crop sowing in early part of the Kharif season to partially cope with the situation.

A meeting of the technical committee of the water regulator, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa), on Monday estimated total water availability of 108-113 million acre feet during Kharif.

The season lasts from April to November, and rice, sugarcane, cotton and maize are some of the key crops.

Because of higher conveyance losses, the water availability for irrigation could come down by almost 35pc and would affect agriculture output.

Irsa’s director operations Khalid Idrees Rana, who headed the meeting, said the regulators’ advisory committee would finalise the estimates on March 31. However, the early Kharif (April 1 to June 10) was estimated to witness 40pc losses in the Indus river system which would come down to 20pc during late Kharif (June 10 to December), he said.

He said the losses in Jhelum-Chenab system were estimated at 10pc in the early Kharif and no shortage in the latter part of the season.

Mr Rana hoped the water shortage would not be as acute as previously anticipated at up to 40pc at the start of current month.

During the meeting of the technical committee, the Sindh province requested that water flows should not be stored in dams in case of shortage and its discharges be made in line with the provincial irrigation requirements.

The Irsa director said the request would be presented to the advisory committee, but usually the regulator has been following the same pattern as requested by Sindh, i.e. giving priority to irrigation over building storage.

On the positive side, there has been healthy snowfalls in the northern parts of the country and temperatures were also rising which could hopefully improve river flows, he said.

Mr Rana said Irsa expected river flows to rise in the latter part of the season, hence it would request the provinces not to go for sowing before April 15.

Informed sources said the regulator was expected to adopt a three-tier water distribution mechanism for Kharif due to water shortage. This means water sharing among the provinces will be based on historic uses of 1977-82 under which Punjab will have access to higher water quantities, reducing Sindh’s share.

Under the same mechanism, water distribution among the provinces should be strictly in accordance with the second paragraph of the 1991 water apportionment accord in case of no shortage and flooding irrigation in case of surplus water.

The water shortages are generally shared by Sindh and Punjab while Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are exempt from cut in their share because of their infrastructure constraints.

An official said there was no water shortage in Kharif in the past two years which led to bumper agriculture output, and it was only once in the last 16 years that shortage went beyond 30pc.

Irsa’s directors regulation of Sindh and Punjab, chief engineer irrigation Balochistan and director of the Water and Power Development Authority also attended the meeting.

Because of repeated water shortages, Irsa has over the years adopted an ad hoc three-tier distribution plan that works out provincial shares in three stages — early, middle and late watering — through a formula based on a combination of historic uses and shortage sharing.

Published in Dawn, March 28th, 2017