DONALD Trump may be hoping for an unravelling of the European Union but he seems to be having the opposite effect.

After months of shock and sadness over Brexit and the venom against liberal democracies and civilised values unleashed by Trump, European leaders are fighting back.

Of course spoilers still abound. But their wings are being clipped and their influence curtailed — at least for now.

Take Brexit. Britain’s Theresa May can do nothing wrong as far as her pro-Brexit fan base is concerned. And although the House of Lords recently voted in favour of guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living in Britain, May appears confident that her tough Brexit bill will pass unamended later in the month.

She also appears to have convinced the British public to ignore the concerns about government policy voiced recently by former British prime ministers John Major and Tony Blair. But there is still a fly in the ointment. Brexit negotiators in Brussels and policymakers in most EU member states are in no mood to be kind and generous to May and have made clear that the Brexit negotiations are going to be long, tough and painful.

Also in recent days, “Illiberal Democrats” in Hungary and Poland are being warned that they may see cuts in the handouts they receive from Brussels if they keep violating EU values on the rule of law and a free press.

Meanwhile, the mood of voters in upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany is proving difficult to gauge.

Dutch anti-Islam and anti-EU populist Geert Wilders is still popular but appears to have fallen to second place in opinion polls, with current Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in the lead.

In France, the rise and rise of Front National politician Marine Le Pen seems to have run into trouble as the centrist pro-European presidential candidate Emannuel Macron climbs up the opinion polls.

And in Germany, former European Parliament president Martin Schulz has re-energised the German Social Democrats and is giving Chancellor Angela Merkel a run for her money in elections in autumn.

Meanwhile, the once up-and-coming anti-Europe and anti-Muslim AfD, or Alternative for Germany party, is losing momentum.

And if this volatility wasn’t enough to bury Trumpian visions of a Europe that is down-and-out and floundering desperately, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has unveiled a blueprint — or several blueprints — for revitalising Europe in the coming years.

The plans on the Future of Europe come ahead of upcoming EU celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome.

Juncker told the European Parliament this week that he was fed up with national governments’ love of “EU-bashing”.

The conventional wisdom in Brussels is that national leaders take credit for the EU’s successes but turn against the bloc when they have to implement tough policies.

The Rome summit called end-March to commemorate the EU’s visionary founding fathers will not be attended by May.

Juncker says the meeting “will not simply be a birthday celebration, it should also be the birth moment of the European Union at 27”.

“However painful or regrettable Brexit may be, it will not stop the EU as it moves to the future; we need to move forward,” Juncker told the European Parliament.

The Commission has set out five “pathways” for Europe but in fact for many, including Juncker, the writing is on the wall: all roads lead to a “multi-speed Europe”.

The 27 EU countries will not move forward as a bloc, in unity, but at different speeds and in “coalitions of the willing”.

Countries which want to work together in say, defence, will be able to do so, without trying to convince the laggards to join in. The EU already consists of multiple overlapping groupings: not all countries are members of the euro or the Schengen border-free travel area for instance.

The Commission chief is hoping that EU leaders, who are deeply divided on migration and the eurozone, can sign up to a plan before European elections in 2019.

Juncker’s paper is sombre, recognising that “Europe’s challenges show no sign of abating”. It also notes the difficult balancing act facing the EU, as “many Europeans consider the Union as either too distant or too interfering”.

The warning is timely. Juncker’s message of resilience and determination to Trump and others is significant. But much depends on what happens in the French presidential elections.

The Union may be able to bounce back after Brexit and cope with changes in the Dutch political landscape.

But the focus is now very much on France and the political fortunes of the Front National. A victory for Le Pen and her anti-EU policies could indeed stop Europe in its tracks.

And if that happens, the fear is that neither Juncker nor Merkel will be able to put the world’s most ambitious peace project together again.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels

Published in Dawn, March 4th, 2017