Deeply concerned over the US policy shift under the Trump administration, the business community believes that Pakistan is underestimating the impact of moves taken by the United States, and not doing enough to address emerging challenges to international trade.

Business leaders see in the US drift towards protectionism and faith-based discrimination serious risks to Pakistan’s trade and economy. The government, however, dismisses their apprehensions on bilateral trade as baseless.

Criticising the lethargy of the officialdom, the corporate leadership expressed frustration over the lack of focus in Islamabad on issues that have become global concerns.

Business leaders see in the US policy drift … serious risks to Pakistan’s trade and economy. The government, however, dismisses their apprehensions as baseless

Azmat Ali Ranjha, federal commerce secretary, was confident that Pakistan’s trade with the US would not be affected under the Trump administration.

“We do not foresee any difficulty as far as trade is concerned. We have no special access to the US market that we would lose. The US GSP terms are the same for Pakistan as for 128 other countries. We have nothing to do with their pull-out from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), or its intention to renegotiate other trade deals such as the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)”, he said talking to Dawn from Islamabad.

He was convinced that the foreign ministry was monitoring and articulating Pakistan’s position in the unfolding US scenario related to travel restrictions, greater scrutiny of Pakistani passport holders, etc.

He confirmed that the government had not formed any joint ministerial forum or a task force to assess/evaluate the fallout of US measures on Pakistan’s economy or shape a strategy to deal with new challenges. “No, I am not privy to any such initiative”, he said.

On the topic of the concerns of the business community, Ranjha insisted that his ministry was easily accessible to anyone who cared to contact us.

Zubair Tufail, president, Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said he found the situation alarming.

“So far our members have not encountered any problem in acquiring US business visas but concerns have been expressed over the harsh tone in the US towards its long standing ally, Pakistan, in all business meetings of the federation over the week. I intend to meet the US Consul General next week to seek his views on our business concerns”.

“Earlier there were four constituencies, now it is all about four flats. Economic interests are held hostage to populist rhetoric and zero sum games. Be it government, opposition or the media, never, even by mistake, do they ever focus on the real issues at hand. It is hard to say what keeps them busy in their make-believe world”, thundered a former Aptma chairman referring to the debate around rigging and corruption in the country over the phone from Lahore.

“We understand the strategic significance of Pakistan, but we are worried sick. The future of trade does not appear promising. Exports have already dropped from S24bn to $20bn in the last three years and reports of the first half of the current fiscal year are not encouraging. It is insane to assume that somehow our exports sector will not be unaffected by this new wave of protectionism. What makes it more depressing is the lack of effort in commercial diplomacy,” Rafique Ibrahim, ex-president, All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, commented.

Muhammad Ali Tabba, CEO Lucky Cement and former president of the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association, saw a silver lining in the confusion and chaos following Trump’s executive orders and the global reaction.

“The restrictions on bigger trade partners of US (Mexico, China) can open up space for our exports in the US market. Yes, there is a need to look at that closely to identify a niche for Pakistani products”, he said.

“The Obama administration was not particularly kind to Pakistan. Now, with a Republican president in office, trade diplomats should make a case for greater market access to Pakistan. We paid high a price ($250bn) in the war against terror. Pakistan is a victim of terrorism and not its sponsor”, Gohar Eijaz, another Aptma leader, said.

The views of the American Business Council (ABC) — an 86-member group of US companies in Pakistan — was sought but the response was not received within the deadline.

The US is Pakistan’s single biggest export destination, with a share of around 17pc of total exports and 4pc of total imports originating from US, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2015-16. Pakistan enjoys a surplus balance of trade with imports from US at $1.3bn against exports of $2.6bn in 2015-16.

Experts believe that the volume of bilateral trade with US might fall, hitting exports harder. They think that remittance inflows from resident Pakistanis based there could increase as people may become more inclined to park their savings back home as fears of hate crimes and discrimination rise. (After 9/11, the remittance inflow from US into Pakistan tripled within a year).

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, February 6th, 2017