Cotton is associated with speculations the world over but not for the produce from a crop and certainly not the way controversies have hit the size of Pakistan’s latest cotton crop; it is the scene of unprecedented wild conjectures in the name of assessment.

One could perhaps ignore these evaluations during the period when the crop was in the fields. But there can be no conceivable justification for uncertainty over the quantity of produce after the picking of virtually the last flower and after cotton’s replacement with wheat almost in every field in the country’s two main cotton producing provinces, Punjab and Sindh. But speculations on the total produce continue unabated.

This informs of the lack of reliable methods of assessing crop size and reflects sadly on the capabilities of cotton’s managers both in public and private sectors. By this time of the year, the country should have known the exact output with a measure of finality.

But its size is assessed every fortnight on the basis of arrivals in the market. Phutti’s arrival in the market is a business activity distinct from agriculture activity. The former has nuances of profit and represents crosscurrents marking the relationship between growers, ginners and textile millers while the later is a professional job rendered by provincial and federal government experts. In the current situation, official sources seem to be responsible for triggering controversy by providing estimates that were revised before the information had registered; the government spared no opportunity of pouring fuel over estimates of the crop. This contributes to the havoc that visits the cotton market. It all started with the fixing of target for the crop. This is done every year and, strictly speaking, there is nothing wrong with the practice. But certain basic measures like availability of seed, fertilizer and pesticides, among other things, need to be undertaken prior to the fixation of target. It should also have been realized that the crop is always dependent on some extraneous factors like weather conditions that are beyond the control of official resources and machinery.

The government began by fixing 2.86 hectares as area for target sowing and output of 10.55 million bales for the crop. One of the first announcements of the federal government relating to the crop was a declaration that cultivation had exceeded target as 106.2 percent of sowing had been achieved. This smelled of a bumper crop, other things remaining equal. This was followed by another announcement by the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) as early as August 20 that the crop was likely to be in excess of the target and should yield 11.2 m bales. The information was made available in a meeting of the Federal Textile Board in Islamabad and was circulated, besides other media, by the official news agency. As the assessment had taken into account floods in Sindh and rains in Punjab’s cotton belt, there was no reason to disbelieve it except that MINFAL seemed to be jumping the gun: it was too early to predict output.

A pest attack was in early stages by this time and one felt that the authorities must have measured its intensity as also taken the necessary steps to counter it, particularly as pest attacks are not uncommon and agriculture departments of provinces and all farmers are familiar with this phenomenon and know how to control pests.

But the attack was accompanied by the shortage of pesticides and it became clear that all is not well with the crop in many fields. An extensive survey by Dawn reported that the crop was unlikely to be more than 8 to 8.5 million bales. At this stage, the government maintained silence but soon after revised the target downward and reduced it to 10 million bales.

This was also the figure APTMA expected. Its officials concurred with the government’s functionaries but ginners and growers felt that the crop would yield around 9 million bales, possibly a little more. This was a far cry from 10.55 million bales and did not pose a serious crisis if APTMA was right. However, reduction of another one million bales in produce could not be ruled out.

It is however a surprise, indeed a mystery as to why the government has failed to assess the crop with finality after it has been fully picked. More worrying is the fact that there appears no system in place for ensuring the availability of vital inputs at a crucial stage in the growth of the crop.

Cotton is a precious crop, if not the most precious produce of the agriculture sector and the most important resource for Pakistan’s exports. This has been so for years and one expects the authorities to have learnt all about it by now. But basic requirements continue to be ignored and methods for assessing crop output have not been streamlined with the result that crop position remains a matter of discussion and conjecture even long after it has been harvested.

Unfortunate but nothing new as a similar situation has already been witnessed in wheat that saw the authorities make tall claims about the produce and denying private sector reports of a shortfall and end by conceding that imports would be undertaken to underwrite the bill for domestic consumption.

All this adds up to the conclusion that the methods and policies the government has been relying on so far have become redundant in the context of present day pressures and emphasis on professional handling of the agriculture sector, as indeed in other areas of life. The generalist approach can be followed at peril to the national interests. MINFAL has to put its act together in a scientific manner and streamline its functioning if it aims at delivering as per national needs and potential of the sector.