Stocks remained in a terribly bullish mood during the last week, sans higher badla rates amid fears that their negative fall-out could halt the current flare-up triggered by Pakistan’s peace initiatives.

A series of confidence-building steps taken by Pakistan to win peace with India were widely welcomed by the investors, as was reflected by the market’s snap rebound, leading to new single-session records both in term of rise in share index, and individual turnover figures.

“The Indian cultural invasion was judiciously matched by the Pakistan peace moves, and who the winner is, only time would tell”, said an analyst jokingly. “However it has certainly restored the investor-confidence, which was lacking owing to row over the LFO issue and heating up of the political scene.

Resumption of air and road links, offer to withdraw troops from the LOC, and some other positive steps taken by Pakistan and positive response from India is expected to further boost the stock trading in coming weeks.

The KSE 100-share index finally finished the week at around 4,200 points as compared to 4,068.29 points during the pre-Eid holiday session, up 132 points or about five per cent, although well below its early week peak level of 4,304 points.

The market capital also rose by Rs27.170 billion at Rs895.056 billion after hitting the week’s highest at Rs922 billion during the early week rally.

All eyes, however, remained focused on the provisionally listed OGDC share on the forward counter which finished with week well over Rs52 against its benchmark price of Rs32 per share.

In each session, it turned out massive activities including 160 million shares on Thursday, an all-time record, so far. Institutional investors were out to grab the floating stock irrespective of the price tag.

Already, it has assumed the role of a market mover because of its fundamental strength based on higher life of its oil and gas reserves and new exploration ventures and positive initial results, analysts said.

“A tussle to grab its floating stock from small investors is at its peak but they are not that fool to be trapped into an attractive bait of handsome capital gains at this formative stage”,they said. “Most of them are eyeing much higher levels after its share was formally listed and its weightage in the index calculated”.

Dividend announcements from the largest listed sector, textile, are fairly encouraging and may allow the market to maintain its current upward drive.

An identical reports are also expected from the leading sugar shares for the year ended September 30, 2003.

The KSE 100-share index on Monday recorded one of the largest single session gains of 194.78 points or about five per cent, followed by heavy buying on all the counters triggered by the current peace initiatives, leading to normal neighbourly relations with India.

“All roads may not be leading to the Khalian road (Pakistan’s Wall Street), but the panic-buying spree at lower levels and a virtual price flare-up on all counters reflects that the massively battered bulls are back in the market”, most analysts believe.

A sharp increase of Rs38.503 billion in the market capital at Rs906.389 billion indicates that buying euphoria is genuine and not deceptive backed by some of the positive indicators both on the corporate and political fronts.

In addition to peace moves, including, the unilateral ceasefire, facility of overflights, the other contributory factors were the reports of merger of the FF Bin Qasim with Fauji Fertiliser, rumours of 60 per cent interim dividend after the merger, 2.6 per cent increase in the POL prices and the OGDC’s subscription figure of about Rs28 billion.

The breach through the two psychological barriers of 4,100 and 4,200 points just in one go reflects the mood of bulls who now seem to be out to avenge their defeat and set new records for both, the index and the daily volumes.

It was the largest single session gain at 4,263.07 points, although it has still to go a long way to recoup the loss of about 700 points it suffered during the last about two months. Its career-best level was hit at 4,604.00 in September.

The previous single-session rise of 182.47 points was noted on September 18, and the loss of 206.50 points on September 16, 2003. Yet, the volume figure was far below the all-time single session record of 961 million shares attained in August.

If all goes well with the current peace initiatives, notably after the resumption of overflights and some other steps, it could improve upon its previous all-time high record, analysts said.

As a matter of fact, bulls were already back in the market taking cue of local political developments, including the settlement of the LFO issue, followed by the positive signals from the government, they said. The fresh Pakistan peace moves and the positive response from the Indian high-ups allowed the bulls to come in aid of the falling market. “It was a welcome eid gift to the stock market”, said a leading stock analyst, “bulls were not that fool to miss it”.

Energy shares led the market advance on the perception of higher profits after successive increase in the petroleum prices for the second fortnight in a row under the lead of Pakistan Oilfields, the PSO, followed by the Pakistan Refinery and National Refinery.

Other prominent gainers were led by the Island Textiles, Al-Ghazi Tractors, Packages, Javed Omer and Unilever Pakistan.

Losses on the other hand were mostly fractional barring the JWD Sugar, Treet Corporation, Parke-Davis, Siemens Pakistan, Millat Tractors, Grays of Cambridge, HinoPak Motors and Wyeth Pakistan.

FORWARD COUNTER: Bulk of the speculative, as well as, genuine buying remained confined to the OGDC which rose over Rs6, followed by the PSO, the PTCL and the Hub-Power.