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WELL, who saw that coming? But now that we have seen it, there’s a big little question — does it make any sense? The reluctant, preliminary answer: it doesn’t really.
Welcome as an Indian PM is in Pakistan and enthusiastic as our PM was to host him, you get the sense that neither really understands all the moving parts and endless strands that is Pak-India.
The good news? It’s South Asia — rules don’t always apply here. And both Nawaz and, now, Modi seem willing to try the unconventional.
Let’s try and unpack this. Buried in the bilateral relationship since Mumbai has been a quite vexing question: how to move on from Mumbai?
There was, of course, a simple answer: Pakistan should get the Pindi anti-terrorism trials done and maybe muzzle Hafiz Saeed a bit.
But there was a problem: the boys wouldn’t agree. You could see why: you can’t squeeze your asset at the behest of the enemy the asset was recruited to fight against.
In the ugly parlance of dialogue, the low-hanging fruit can’t be plucked by wattage and theatre alone.
So the more India insisted that Mumbai must be the starting point, the more Pakistan dug in its heels. It was, unhappily, logical. Which caused an impasse.
Leaving one other option: India should move on from Mumbai. Accept it for what it was — as seen from a security prism here: a terrible thing that happened, but not something the entire relationship could be held hostage to.
Basically, a version of stuff happens; this is the world we live in, now let’s be grown-ups about it. But that needed time and a Modi. Manmohan was too close to Mumbai — it happened on his watch. And his partner over in Pakistan was the novice Zardari, who was reviled at home.
Modi doesn’t suffer from the softness problem. It’s the advantage all right-wingers, and the boys, here have. Plus, most of the attack dogs are theirs anyway.
Do something dramatic from the right, and it’s harder to make the accusation of un-patriotism stick. But if time and the right credentials work in Modi’s favour, that still doesn’t explain the strategy. Or make any apparent.
Clearly, he has a solid exit. If this blows up in his face, he can turn to the world and say, look, I tried. I put my reputation on the line. You just can’t trust Pakistanis.
But you can sense that’s inadequate. Modi had that excuse when Nawaz went to his inauguration in Delhi. It would have earned him many more diplomatic brownie points to go for peace then.
But we all know what Modi did. He spurned Nawaz, was scornful of the boys and dreamt up his one-point agenda: terrorism.
In terms of strategy, that actually made more sense: isolate Pakistan on the terrorism issue and keep it on the defensive internationally. Especially since there’s no suggestion that the military here is eager to talk.
For a while it seemed to work. Pakistan flailed around, dredging up Kashmir and dreaming up the dossiers. It was high-risk stuff by the Indians, but in a relationship still defined by Mumbai, it’s not like there were any good options.
Then, it seems, fate intervened. Modi and his allies reverted to type at home. Communalism soared. News from India was one ugly story after another. No more was Pakistani perfidy the issue. The official line had been eclipsed.
Boom — Paris. Quickly, Bangkok; Heart of Asia. And now Raiwind.
It will be spun as a new configuration: India having a direct line to the boys via the NSA and Nawaz solidifying his pre-eminence on the civilian side. But we’ve all seen too much of Pak-India to believe that.
And that’s the first problem with this new phase: if it is domestic Indian troubles causing India to change course on the external front, then what does that say about the determination and purposefulness on the Indian side?
For things to move on Pak-India, you really do need theatre and wattage. Without top-down pressure, the bottom-up won’t change. But there has to be a plan. Wattage and theatre don’t impress the entrenched bureaucracies and institutional interests on both sides.
If you just turn it over to the foreign secretaries and ask them to get stuff done, there’s nothing they’ll love more. The notes and positions have long been memorised and are recited with ease.
In the ugly parlance of dialogue, the low-hanging fruit can’t be plucked by wattage and theatre alone. We saw it with the Composite Dialogue. While Pakistan cleverly tried to suggest Siachen could be resolved, it was really Sir Creek that made the most sense.
That is, until you watched the naval folk with their maps and coordinates trot out their positions. You could end up feeling Israel-Palestine is easier to solve. So if Modi is doing this for domestic reasons, you can bet the resistance domestically will be even greater.
And Nawaz — good man, got the right idea and is determined to boot. But this Jindal business suggests he may still not get it. He tried it via Shahbaz early on and was slapped down.
On Afghanistan too we saw his preference for the informal and personal with Achakzai as his emissary. That went nowhere either.
You can see why he tries it — the boys control the formal channels. And for precisely that reason you can see why he keeps getting slapped down — the informal channels are harder to control.
Maybe Modi and Nawaz do know what they’re doing. But in this business would you bet against the boys?
A clue may lie in the answer to this: about the Lahore stopover, were the boys informed or were they asked? We’ll know soon enough.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @cyalm
Published in Dawn, December 27th, 2015
Comments (67) Closed
The body language between the teo leaders say it all. Both Modi and Sharif were quite comfortable with each other. This doesn't mean India and Pakistan are going to agree on everything but as long as both are willing to compromise things will be o.k.
If the boys are the problem then why not discipline them. Doesn't Pakistani society have any say in the matter or is apathy the problem.
Boys need concrete steps from India to resolve Kashmir , just follying around is not accepted, if India is ready for plebiscite then Boys will fully support the dialogue.
When both the countries are well aware of the fact that neither of the countries can defeat one another by means of war then why not to have peace amicably. Both the sides of Kashmir can be a semi autonomous. Both the countries can live peacefully and prosper like America and Canada.
Great headline. Reminiscent of the Punch and Judy show...
Another fine analysis, Cyril. I believe this time is different and there is a method to the madness. Modi and Nawaz need each other now more than ever and Modi will do everything in his power to prop up Nawaz. Nawaz really needs that now since he came across powerless when he visited the USA and he needs to project power before it is too late. India 's best bet is with Nawaz.
And witty and crisp and seemingly logically persuasive assertions do not take away from the rest of us the optimism that this visit has generated. Not withstanding the psychoanalysis of Mr Modi, of the men in uniform, and that smug feeling of being always correct.
Modi knows his goals to make India a powerhouse in all aspects for the world to reckon with. He will do whatever it takes to achieve them.
You are right about the boys control all the formal channels. And as the boys are getting their toys from China and the US (including top line 1B USDs annually) there is no incentive for them to talk. A while back, General Ayub joined SEATO etc as an US ally to get free weapons. The Boys haven't looked back.
Boys need concrete steps from India to resolve Kashmir , just follying around is not accepted, if India is ready for plebiscite then Boys will fully support the dialogue.@Zak
India has made the goodwill gesture......thats all the offer there is......
Go back two Sundays.
Cyril Almeida was wondering, "The worse ties are now, could a calamitous strike be more likely?"
(http://www.dawn.com/news/1224472/the-terror-threat)
This is Modi- Nawaz effort at preventing this.
If after the visit the Boys still insist on letting loose the Dogs of War.
Well, it will be their funeral.
The Civilians seem to have out maneuvered the Boys- At least for now.
Let us be clear: Kashmir is unlikely to be resolved in our life time. The best we can hope for is, Pak and India don't become a pain in the neck for each other, don't keep firing along the border killing a few people every now and then with a fairly big one every 10 years which claims a few thousand lives. If they can stop doing these, somewhere in the distant future, when people start migrating to other planets, Kashmir will no longer be seen as a issue. Challenge for India and Pak is to not destroy each other in the mean time.
Since The day modiji n nawaz ji met, iv been waiting for cyril's piece on this. And it was worth the wait. About modi ji n nawaz ji, there is one thing which stands out n that is, both the leaders have a sort of bonhomie with each other and both are willing to go out of the way to resolve the issue but are burdened by domestic issues n forces. When you suggest that India is doing this because of its domestic conflicts, i think u r shooting in the dark because this seems to be the obvious logic. We feel that this was a long time coming n both the leaders, in an informal way, are trying their best to resolve the issue without involving too many parties. Nawaz ji has been given some room by the "boys" that ok u can do whatever u think is right but this is the limit to which u can go. Modi ji is, well, modi ji, he knows what is best for the region.
Nobody in India expect any rapid progress. The very fact that the LOC is silent is good. But without Bombay massacre accused being brought to justice nothing substantive will move. This is sure.
@Zak Wake up man. Stop dreaming....
@Zak - Plebiscite? I bet you or any of your countrymen haven't even read the UN resolution on Kashmir. Have you?
The Pak NSA was conspicuous in his absence..... the more things change...the more they remain same......
Nothing new, both seem to be best buddies but that does not solve the problems.
@Ravichandran , boys are not the issue, dialogue on the basis of equality and safeguarding one's own interests are the core issues, if all this is taken care of in a diplomatic manner then nobody has problems not even the boys and they are already well disciplined actually discipline is the key word by which they lead their lives.
The only advise I can give to boys is to stay calm and let the government do its job. You were given many many chances and we are still reaping the harvest sown by you.
why can,t Pakistan be Pakistan and India be India.Kashmir.It is a dead horse and will remain one.Only beneficiaries are separatist leaders.
Nicely done.........I thought you covered almost all the angles and ended on a realistic note.
@Zak, forget about the plebiscite…
A brave act of Modi and great welcome by Nawaz Sharif
@Ravichandran Short and simple answer. No, the Pakistani society does not have any say. We are like sheep herded in different directions during last 68 years
There will never be peace between Pakistan and India as long as Kashmir problem is unsolved.
What is the gain for Pakistan from such a visit, even no common formal statement yet
Dr Manmohan Singh has once already said Nawaz Sharif : "Mian Saheb, no Government in India can be allowed to accept redrawing the boundry." Rest is OK.
@Rahul UN resolution excerpt: after hearing arguments from both India and Pakistan the Council increased the size of the Commission established by United Nations Security Council Resolution 49 to five members, instructed the Commission to go to the subcontinent and help the governments of India and Pakistan restore peace and order to the region and prepare for a plebiscite to decide the fate of Kashmir.
so it's means it's depends on the Kashmiri wish where they want to go correct ????
A great letdown of a article considering previous articles of Cyril. Seems the author wrote the article in a huff, considering Modi flustered all of Pakistan by his sudden visit and Cyril too was no different. Wishing another article on this subject by Cyril. Cheers.
It was more likely the personal visit to pm house with official protocol but a good gesture for future talks......
@Dr.Sadaf .. I think what Ravi meant with discipline is fall in line with Pakistan state/peoples views and not have their own agenda. Currently their(PA) agenda differs from Pak civilian gov.
I have a strong feeling this visit was just a stint by Modi to show the world that he really wants peace with Pakistan so that he can use future events to put the blame on Pakitan, and it will not be the first time it has happened
@ZAKrilla ......... lolz, we know whatever it take for modi to make india as power house........... recently we have seen Muslim lynched for beef eating, minorities dalits are called equal to dogs, Musliam parliamentarians are thrown at with black ink. what more he need to prove ? or whats your point ?
Very good analysis. Thanks.
Few points: 1) if any lasting peace has ever to be reached, it has to be done by BJP party only. As hardliners, Modi will always have the advantage. 2) The reality is that India will never let go of Kashmir as Pakistan won't let go of Baloch 3) Whatever the peace proposal, without Pakistan's army blessing, it won't go any where.
The bottom line is that without hardline elements in India and Pakistan's army accepting the peace and realities, everything else is theater and drama good for news consumption.
One thing appears certain. Modi in Russia was told the cost of maintaining rift with Pakistan and advised to mend ways to get its people into the contemporary world. Same was the American message not long ago. So, the stop in Afghanistan gave some thinking time and Modi realized it would be best to follow Gandhi's advice and start dialogue, instead of raised-cuffs with Pakistan on tension-free mode. Coming to Mumbai, still it baffles mind about the simple fact, how could a group of 10 terrorists dodge 21 security nets in three layers and attack 3 places simultaneously, keeping controls for 3 days and not being apprehended or eliminated?
When NS came to power in Pakistan, he used to say in his election meetings that he will improve relations with India. In India also, people want peace and good relations with Pakistan. Silent majority wants better relations between neighbors. If officials of both the countries talk, then lines will open and there will be improvement in atmospherics. Final solutions will come through talks only. By having good relations and trade, both the peoples will be in win win situation.
@Rohit , I can very well understand what discipline was meant, as far as the agenda goes, well whatever the boys agenda is am sure it only concerns the security of our country and common people are in sync with that, once those concerns are addressed properly trade should be established as that is the way forward, there is no argument in that. Lastly, if two people are very good friends in personal capacities and are hugging each other and walking hand in hand on the red carpet does not mean that these sentiments are so easy to trickle down, it takes ages and purity of heart to achieve that, and I think that you will agree with me that is not possible to achieve but for sure we can have working relationships at the level of the common man.
@Zak The Musharraf agreement on Kashmir issue is the best hope we have. Despite my deep dislike for him, he did get something good rolling. Hope Modi government will stop the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir issue and settle the Kashmir matter once and for good. Plebiscite is something that is very unlikely to happen now because of the violations of its pre-conditions in the UN resolution. Unfortunately, it was Pakistan that violated those conditions.
I think boys will be finding it very tough. Probably they will try to carry out some big stuff to derail the peace process now but eventually it will be harming Pakistan.
The meeting of Sharif and Modi shows that the civilians in both nations, in spite of all the differences, can still live together as friends and brothers. The military however, as all militaries, is trained to think in terms of war.
Modi'overture is to placate the Hurriyat people primarily and show the World at large that India was trying their best for a peaceful solution.Personally i admire Modi's cleverness.
Dear friend
Modi has already shown his intention two time first calling nawaz in india and second paying unplanned visit to nawaz in pakistan. Hope my all friends in pakistan understood what this man is capable to do to establish peace love and prosperity of india and world.?
@Dr.Sadaf "boys are not the issue, dialogue on the basis of equality and safeguarding one's own interests are the core issues" Lets assume for argument that the shoe on the other foot with the conditions of India and Pakistan reversed. Would the boys or civilians be talking about dialogue on the basis of equality? India would have already been vivisected into many parts and thrown to the wolves. Till now the Indian decency and will for peace has been construed as weakness allowing the boys to punch every time above their weight. That has now changed and India has also changed - everyone needs to know their limits.
Modi does not need to do a show for media. He has to show that India grows economically at close to 10% every year during his tenure and is secure in all respects. Indians have complete faith in Modi, the Yogi who has devoted his life to mother India and works 17-18 hours every day for her betterment.
Hat a Machiavellan piece, probably close to the truth.
There is warmth in both PMs body language. There was no requirement for this meeting. I believe both met out of sincerity and it is a great thing. That's all that is required. No preconditions, no solve kashmir issue etc etc just friendly meetings then start with lighter things like cross border tourism, trade etc. We share one of the longest borders on the world but we know the least about the other country.
This guy s getting boring; he dreams of the "boys" everywhere; paints them as an evil never seen before without a rational reason as to why the boys are so hell bent upon destroying the good and "only good" dished out by the Angels in civvies.
The boys don't want a new front when they are occupied elsewhere; and they clearly aren't a dynasty which simply wants more fr it's bloodline. There is got to be a semblance of sense in their stance too that this writer criminally chooses to ignore.
'boys' are doing what boys have always done. We will remain in this mess thanks to their short sightedness. Country should come first and not the ego
@Kamal Pasha Then suck it up and learn to live with it and for all your future generations ...!
Cyril, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
After reading several comments from our Indian readers,this is the only way forward,lets continue to talk peace instead of finger pointing,India and Pakistan are two sides to the same coin,we can exist side by side,we can have friendly ties,we can show love and respect for one another.I myself believes that Kashmir cannot and should not be used as a talking point when we are talking about peace between us.Kashmir is an issue that should be resolved,but only for the sake of people of Kashmir,neither Pakistan nor India should have any say so in the matter,all this talk about Kashmir,both sides seem to have forgotten one important element,the Kishmiri people and their rights to have their own country and the right to live in peace.People of Kashmir should decide whats best for them,not India,not Pakistan.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi quick visit to Lahore was a surprise to many ignorant people like me, in fact that was a well planned business tour. There can be no lasting friendship between India and Pakistan until age old Kashmir dispute is resolved to the satisfaction of the Kashmiri's, with or without intervention of a third party plus water dispute. India wants access to Afghanistan and Central Asia through Pakistani road network and Gas to develop its trade and industries. At the same time turn Pakistan lands barren by denying is due share of water. Pressure or no pressure - wake up before it is too late.
@M. Saeed is correct it is american arm twisting and finally Putin telling Modi to get in line there is nothing can be gained by eastern nations fighting each at behest of the West. You can Putin is becoming quite a mover and shaker in this whole region. I think Chinese leaders let Putin do all the talking and they all seem to be on the same page except India and now India seems to be coming along which is a good thing and logical step. There is no reason why the whole continent from Russia to Sri Lanka can't linked with each other economically and make a giant market for the whole region...hence reluctance of PAkistan to joint any force against iran. i think Russia and China are telling Pakistanis to get in line and stop being stooges of the western big boys and NAwaz is a businessman and he and his buddies love to make some money and I see nothing wrong with it. I say give Putin the due respect
@Rohit;
'India has made the goodwill gesture......thats all the offer there is......'
Nawaz sahib made everybody eat vegetarian samosas at the party, that is all the response there is.
@observer;
The boys have no need to go to war. They have left India out in the cold on Afghan peace and access to Central-Asia and that is all they want.
@Sanjay Sharma;
" no Government in India can be allowed to accept redrawing the boundry." Rest is OK.
Rest is nothing.
Aman ki Asha, Modi ki Bhasha.
@Yet another Indian sri1;
' That has now changed and India has also changed - everyone needs to know their limits'
Neither India nor Pakistan has changed, it is Afghanistan that has changed, Modi is just putting on a new mask for the new reality. West needs a face saving exit from Afghanistan. India has been told not to rock the boat and keep grinning after being kicked out from the heart of Asia.
@Zak , no matter what happens I can guarantee what your asking won't happen. Borders cannot and will not be redrawn. The solution would be to accept what both side have and little autonomy to Kashmiris within the Indian constitution.
The boys will be boys.
extremely well written.
Nothing will happen. India's stand is clear on J&K and anybody including Modi can't change that.
brilliant as usual makes my Sunday to read your column
@Ravichandran Who will bell the cat?
@Tariq Amir Hope they take your advice.
@Syed Ahmed, Canada What about the water treaty and its mechanism for resolving conflicts?