KARACHI: The death of Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan has given rise to many questions as to the future course of political developments. The first and foremost is, will the alliance split along a left-right ideological divide?

Politicians in Karachi speculate that since there is nobody else of the Nawabzada’s stature and balancing skills, there is every possibility the presidency of the ARD may now be rotated, although Mr Amin Fahim has been chosen to succeed the Nawabzada for the time being. Things would become clear in the first week of October when the ARD leaders will decide about a permanent chief of the alliance.

Ending the role of the army in politics was the Nawabzada’s lifetime objective and a large segment of opinion agreed with him on this issue. He showed a good deal of flexibility by proposing an honourable “exit strategy” which was rejected by the military.

It seems that for the while the ARD will try hard to remain united and adopt a more radical attitude on the LFO and military rule to ward off internal dissension. But much will depend on the political sagacity of PPP and PML-N leaders because within their ranks there are elements who want to embark on solo flights.

The situation could also impinge on those weaklings in these parties who were watching developments and waiting for a pretext to switch loyalties. It seems that in the end it would be more of a PPP effort to keep the ARD afloat. Political circles here believe that the demise of the Nawabzada may slow down the struggle against dictatorship as happened after the death of Mufti Mehmood during Gen Zia’s time.

For the moment, the regime is well-entrenched. One development which favours it is the defection from the MMA of Maulana Samiul Haq, which many say was the handiwork of the Establishment. The Maulana’s exit from the MMA can create new difficulties for the opposition. New to democratic politics, the MMA, according to some observers perhaps still believes that a period of coexistence with the army in power is a prerequisite for an orderly change. This position is unlikely to go down well with those who feel they have had enough of military control. The MMA is already losing its credibility in the eyes of such people; they have increasingly come to regard its members as political opportunists. These sceptics wonder if everyone in the MMA believes in democracy and elections. Some of them, they assert, clearly don’t. Since the MMA’s object is an Islamic revolution whereby it can use the power of the state to enforce its particular version of the Shariat. Elections and democracy, these critics maintain, are merely stepping stones towards that goal.

Some critics also have their own version of why the MMA insists on depriving General Pervez Musharraf of his uniform while retaining him as president. They claim that the purpose is to ensure transfer of real power to one of their own dependable persons and not to put an end to the role of the army in the running of the country. According to this school of thought, the MMA appears ready for changes in the Constitution to accommodate the interests of the military.

Observers believe that in such a scenario, much will depend on how the ARD leadership keeps the component parties together and mobilizes the masses. This involves framing issues in such a way that the common man’s interest is attracted. Some political activists doubt whether the rejection of the undemocratic aspects of the LFO alone can rouse the people, who have long been victims of inertia to political action. An egalitarian economic programme could add immensely to the ARD’s appeal, but it is problematic whether the component parties would at all be able to agree on such a programme.

Although Makhdoom Amin Fahim has talked of carrying forward the mission and struggle of the late Nawabzada, he lacks the experience of leading a multi-party alliance. In any case the ARD is going to elect a new leader. Where and how they are going to find him/her remains to be seen. Having led several multi-party alliances, the Nawabzada was adept at the art of working out the tactics and strategy of united fronts. A successor to him will be hard to find.