MUMBAI, Sept 20: India’s oilseed output is likely to surge 49 per cent in the winter season of 2003 from a year earlier on good monsoon rains and an increase in the area under cultivation, a leading trade body said on Saturday.

Winter oilseed output is likely to rise to 13.1 million tons from 8.81 million tons a year ago, Sandeep Bajoria, chairman of the Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade, told Reuters.

The first advance estimates show substantial improvement in winter oilseeds crop output, he said.

Excellent monsoon rains and more area under oilseeds cultivation have helped the crop to a large extent.

Groundnut production is expected to jump to 5.38 million tons from 3.13 million tons last season, while soyabean output is likely to rise to 6.03 million tons from 4.3 million, he said after a meeting of the members of the organisation.

India imports half of its edible oil needs mainly from Malaysia, Indonesia, Argentina and Brazil. Oil imports in the November 2002-August 2003 period rose 24 per cent from a year earlier to 4.25 million tons.

The country is experiencing its heaviest monsoon rains in five years. It received 108 per cent of its long-term average rainfall in June and July, the first two months of the monsoon season.

Last year, the country was hit by its worst drought in 15 years, which hit farm sector output and slashed economic growth to 4.3 per cent in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2003 from 5.6 per cent a year earlier.

The farm sector contributes 25 per cent to gross domestic product and provides a living to more than two thirds of the population of over one billion.

Crop prospects have also been boosted by an increase in the area under cultivation, traders said.

Government data shows land under winter oilseed cultivation has risen to 15.2 million hectares from 13.6 million last season.

Traders said imports in the new oil year which begins in November are expected to fall to 4.4-to-4.8 million tons froman estimated record 5.1 million tons in the current year due to a sharp rise in domestic oilseed output.

Some traders say imports will rise in the first half of 2003/04 from the previous year, to replenish stocks, and will fall in the later part of the year.

Closing stocks are expected to more than halve to 400,000 tons at the end of the current oil year from a year earlier as importers have slowed overseas purchases ahead of a bumper crop. —Reuters