ISLAMABAD, Sept 9: The storage capacity of three major water reservoirs — Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma — would be eroded by 25 per cent by 2005 due to silt and other factors, experts told Dawn on Tuesday.

They said the situation would make the problem of water availability more serious particularly in the rain-fed areas.

Official sources said President Gen Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Jamali had been informed about the matter. Both the leaders had been told that in case an early consensus was not evolved on building dams like Kalabagh and Bhasha dams, differences among provinces over distribution of water would further widen.

To cope with the situation, the government has allowed the initiation of participatory national integrated water management programme for managing water resources. Under the programme, nine projects would be initiated in the country, including three in Punjab, two in Sindh and one each in Balochistan, NWFP, Barani areas and Northern Areas.

According to an official study, the present water crisis in Pakistan is extremely serious. Experts fear the situation will get worse in the days to come. They predict that with the current population growth of four million people a year, one out of three people in Pakistan will face critical shortage of water, threatening their survival.

The annual per capita water availability based on current population of 140 million is only 0.9 acre feet (AF), which is 50 per cent less than what it was nine years ago, the study said.

The rainfall has generally been showing decreasing trend all over the country since 1997 which has resulted in reduced river flows. The country recently faced one of the most severe droughts in its history which warrants an action plan to develop, conserve and utilize the dwindling water resources carefully, it added.

Moreover, water quality is also becoming an important issue.

The study says though Pakistan has the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system, it is a water-deficit country. The 77 year inflow data of the Indus River (1922-23 to 1999-2000) indicates that watersheds of the Indus River yield is about 138.7 MAF of water annually.

The danger of desertification due to depleting groundwater is also feared in some parts of the country.

In Balochistan, groundwater aquifers are dropping at a rate of 3.5 meter annually and will become dry in 15 years time, which will cause massive population displacement. The situation of rapidly falling watertable in other parts of the country is no different.

The study says the current storage capacity of the country stands at 15 MAF against an annual demand of over 100 MAF of irrigation water. No major dams have been built in the last 27 years, with the country lagging behind its neighbours, like Iran, India, Nepal and Turkey.

The drought has highlighted the lack of any definite water policy and has exposed shortcomings in Pakistan’s water storage and antiquated irrigation systems. Outdated irrigation techniques have caused the problems of waterlogging and salinity, whereas unequal distribution of water for agriculture has resulted in tensions at community and regional level.

“This situation calls for immediate action to develop all possible water resources, and conserve and utilise the available water resources judiciously,” the study said.