WITH the scenario so drastically changed by Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, many voices once clamouring for a boycott are probably regretting not filing their nomination papers.

One reason given by the boycott-wallahs is that since the polls are bound to be rigged anyway, there is no point in legitimising this fraudulent exercise. The other was that by contesting the elections, politicians are opting out of the fight for the restoration of an independent judiciary.

In my view, both arguments are badly flawed. The very nature of elections in Pakistan is such that they never truly reflect the will of the electorate. The best we can hope for is a crude approximation. This view is based on our electoral experience over the last 37 years. The only time we have had genuinely free and fair elections was in 1970. Of course the army takes credit for this authentic electoral exercise as it was held under Gen Yahya Khan.

The fact is that the dictator of the day had expected a hung parliament, with several factions vying for power without any party gaining an outright majority. He thought this bickering would give him the upper hand. This was the assessment of all the intelligence agencies at the time, so rigging was considered unnecessary. In the event, the clean sweep by the Awami League in East Pakistan, and by the PPP in the West, resulted in a crisis.

Since then, every election has been controversial, with charges of rigging accompanying the result. One reason for this mudslinging is that we are bad losers, and do not accept defeat gracefully. But more importantly, there are institutional and social reasons as well.

Firstly, the requirement for national ID cards for voters automatically disenfranchises millions. Many women, especially in the rural areas, simply avoid the hassles involved in getting these cards since they do not really need them.

Then there is the absurd requirement for a university degree for candidates. This law, enacted by Musharraf, has in no way improved the quality of our legislators. All it has done is to force unqualified candidates to obtain degrees by fraudulent means, or to pretend that the sanads issued by madressahs are equivalent to a university degree.

Next, there is the patriarchal nature of our society in which men decide how women are to vote. In vast areas of Balochistan, the NWFP and the Tribal Areas, entire tribes decree that women will not be permitted to vote. Period. So far, no government has taken action against those who make these pronouncements.

Finally, as long as the bureaucracy is in charge of the actual polling, there is no way elections can be free and fair. Schoolteachers and junior bureaucrats who supervise the polling stations and count the ballots are amenable to all kinds of pressures. There are administrative threats issued to polling staff to ensure a certain outcome.

Senior bureaucrats and police officials can see which way the wind is blowing, and then exert their considerable influence. And now, the local councils have been added to this machinery. The current elected officials are, generally speaking, closely allied to the PML-Q/MQM ruling combine. They are also aware of the many reservations the PPP and the PML-N have regarding the flawed devolution scheme. They thus have a clear vested interest in manipulating the election results.

Apart from these very real fears of rigging the boycotters have, some of them also argue that those parties like the PPP and the PML-N that are contesting the elections are betraying the lawyers’ struggle launched in March to reinstate the Chief Justice and his colleagues. This battle gained fresh relevance with the imposition of quasi-martial law on Nov 3. Cynics argue that once the winners of the Feb 18 elections are in power, they will ignore the cause of the judiciary as they are as uncomfortable with an independent Chief Justice as Musharraf was.

There is much truth in this assumption as there is always a certain degree of tension between the executive and the judiciary the world over. Recent history shows that both Nawaz Sharif and the late Benazir Bhutto have had their problems with the Supreme Court when they were in power.

Having said all this, I would still argue that it is important for all the political forces to participate in the elections. One reason is that the more players in the field, the greater the turnout. In the 2002 elections, the turnout was 42 per cent. With all this talk of rigging, even fewer people may take the trouble to vote, although the expected PPP sympathy vote may well drive up the numbers.

As it is, millions have become apathetic and cynical about elections as they feel that governments are thrown out by the army at whim, thus overturning the popular mandate time after time. Decades of ceaseless propaganda against politicians have taken their toll. More and more people are now asking: “They’re all crooks, so what’s the point of voting?” This is the soil dictatorship thrives in, and is a very good reason to go out and vote for the candidate and party closest to your way of thinking.

I have nothing but respect and admiration for the thousands of lawyers and other members of civil society who, bravely led by my old friend Aitzaz Ahsan, have spearheaded the fight for an independent judiciary. But surely, this struggle is not mutually exclusive from the battle to restore democracy and expel dictatorship.

Ultimately, an independent judiciary is essential for a functioning democracy, and vice versa. As we have just seen, a dictatorship cannot tolerate an independent judiciary.

So clearly, those who are fighting to reinstate judges removed arbitrarily by Musharraf should see no conflict with those contesting the elections. Both struggles are essential, and lead to the same goal: a genuinely democratic Pakistan with equal rights for all citizens.Ironically, by her tragic death, Benazir Bhutto may have served the cause of free and fair elections. The violence and turmoil that followed her murder may well convince the administration that a crude attempt to steal the election might trigger a firestorm, much as it has in Kenya.