ISLAMABAD, June 18: The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) here on Wednesday ruled out the import of wheat during the year 2003-04 because Pakistan would still have a surplus of half-a-million tons after the setback to the current crop.

Giving details of the expected availability and consumption of wheat, the MINFAL spokesman said the total domestic requirement in 2003-04 had come to 19.7 million tons, based on the growth rate of Pakistan’s population — 2.5 per cent. During the last wheat year (May 1 to April 30), the total consumption was 19.2 million tons.

As the country already has a carryover stock of one million tons, the availability of wheat for 2003-04 will come to 20.25 million tons after the addition of 19.25 million tons expected to be obtained from the current crop.

The spokesman admitted that the Federal Committee of Agriculture (FCA) had predicted a bumper crop of 20.6 million tons in the first week of March 2003, rather prematurely. This exceeded the target figure by about 1.1 million tons.

But the hasty forecast was based on a number of unexpected positive factors. These included well-distributed, widespread rains of high intensity and a supply of 25 million acre feet (MAF) of canal water as compared to 18.4 MAF during the previous year.

Secondly, there was a 23-per cent increase in fertilizer use because of the liquidity imparted to the farmers by increased returns from cotton and rice crops, according to the spokesman.

The FCA chaired by the federal agriculture minister and attended by provincial agriculture ministers was called this year nearly three weeks ahead of its usual schedule for reasons unknown and gave its upbeat estimate when the grain was still in its milky stage.

During maturity, the grain is very sensitive to high temperature, which was the case in late March and April. During maturity it is very sensitive to high temperature, which was the case in late March and April.

Due to heat, the wheat grain shrivelled in many areas, while in others (Punjab and NWFP), the crop came under pest attack.

The government, according to the spokesman, had set up a high level committee in MINFAL, which would work in cooperation with provincial agriculture departments to find out the factors responsible for lowering of productivity/grain weight in wheat crop. The committee will submit its report in five weeks.

Asked about the authenticity of the new crop estimate (19.25 million tons), the MINFAL spokesman said the yield data were firmed up by provincial agriculture departments, while the data about area were supplied by the provincial revenue departments.

He dismissed satellite imagery as a reliable technique for obtaining accurate crop estimates. It is not only prohibitively expensive, but also has to be confirmed by field verification through the same system as is being already employed in Pakistan.

MINFAL also provided a table, according to which PASSCO and the food departments of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan had procured 3,507,541 tons of wheat by June 13, 2003. By the same date in 2002, the quantity of wheat procured was 3,959,501 tons.

EXPORTS: A total quantity of 1,703,753 tons was exported during the year 2002-03. This included 1,75,753 tons exported by the private sector.